Autum Internationals Betting Summary....

So in summary what do we have? – Buggered if I know but I’m going to go with NZ at –7 @ Bet365 purely because NZ have the capability to change gears in the last quarter and before you know it they can shoot 2 or 3 scores past you. It’s a real acid test for NZ.

Final Score: France 3-47 NZ

The Italian scrum is top notch and should really give the Crims a good test, however, the Aussie back line is quality. In all honesty it should be a cracking game and I’m going to take Italy with a healthy start of 24 points @ Mansion

Final Score: Italy 18 - 25 Aus

I have no idea about this game, no idea at all....what I do know is that the Islanders have the ability to score tries and concede them, as do this Welsh side - I kind of fancy the Islanders with a start but Over 45 points on Betfair looks really really good value at evens

Final Score: Wales 30 - 28 Pacifica

Premier Bet are offering a 17.5 points start to Wales – If you see anything close to that then jump on. I don't have an account so I've gone with NZ -21 @ Bet365

Final Score: Wales 10 - 45 NZ


So...4 from 5. The Internationals are over and I for one am looking forward to getting back to the nuts and bolts of the Magners League.

Lord of the Wings.....

Wales v New Zealand - Helms Deep Stadium Cardiff - Saturday 25th November

Jenkins: The power of the enemy is growing. Henry will use his puppet Carter to destroy the people of Wales. McCaw has been unleashed. The Eye of Henry now turns to Cardiff, the last free kingdom of men. His war on this country will come swiftly. He senses victory is close. The strength of the little one, Shane, is failing. In his heart, Shane begins to understand. . For Henry will have dominion over all life on this Earth, even unto the ending of the world. The time of the English is over. Do we leave Wales to its fate? Do we let them stand alone?

I’ll be honest, I’m kacking it. This NZ team is quite frankly amazing and they have a built-in orc like ability to destroy everything in their path. The French huffed and pouffed against the AB line last Saturday night and barely made an impression. The French also threw everything they had into a brave defence but it was plain for all to see that it was just a damage limitation exercise and nothing more.

What with Jenk’s squad it seems to me (and the rest of the free world) that he’s going to want Parker to run up the middle of the field taking ball into contact over and over again, he hopes to suck in a few Kiwis and then spin it wide. Great plan! But what happens when he’s tackled? Will he and the lads be able to re-cycle the ball? Will they Buffalo. We’ve seen it all Autumn internationals….make one mistake and it’s a 50 yard run in for the Kiwi hordes.

The Welsh defence…..Roland Phillips has been specially bought in to bring a comedy element to the effort but I really have to say “what defence?” As much as I love Kevin Morgan (Dragons captain) …..he’s got a brave heart but I just can’t seem him being an effective last line of defence, oh wait! he’s got Ickle to back him up. Oh God.

Stephen Jones is back in (oh great) which now leaves us with just the one kicking option (not that I suggest kicking any loose ball to the Kiwis you understand) by why put more pressure on him after a couple of games away with injury?

At least Shanks is at 12, it’s great to have a player there who can think, oh wait, ha-ha-ha-ha.

I know it seems if I’m being overly pessimistic but mark my words, Wales won’t even come close to victory on Saturday.

Premier Bet are offering a 17.5 points start to Wales – If you see anything close to that then jump on. I don't have an account so I've gone with NZ -21 @ Bet365.

So Dai......Why All The Shiney Bookies Banners and Suchlike on the Blog?

Gratuitious Picture of My mate; Leigh, on the Piss with Andy Foode and Captain Corry at Leicester RUFC

Well, to answer your questions....the simple reason is that in my opinion you need as many online bookmakers accounts as possible. The reason for this being that some may offer really good value and if we at Betting On Ice suggest that the Dragons are going to beat Munster by 46 points and your bookie is only offering 43 points then you really are cutting your own nose off if you choose just to go with the shorter line. Things can be close and we've already had a couple of one point victories so far this season.....

And lets be honest, if you open an account by clicking on the links you will receive a free bet, I've managed to turn the £30 quid Sporting Odds have given me into £57.00. It's free money and if your serious about making a few notes this season then you'd be almost foolish not too. So...let me reiterate...there are no catches and no tricks and all the bookies on the blog are the ones with what I think have the best rugby markets.

Iain Balshaw's Not Looking Well!

Get well soon Iain.......

Scotland v Fine Young Cannibals

Just a short preview I’m afraid. I really don’t think much of this Scotland team, they huffed and puffed against Romania and at least two of their scores were from blatantly forward passes.

I think Wales were lucky that the Islanders only played for half an hour and they did gift us 14 points with two intercepted trys under the posts. Their set piece was shabby which is only to be expected and that can only get better after an week together, but they definitely looked very dangerous in the last quarter.

The Scotland back row, to me anyway, looks a bit shabby with the exception of Parks and Webster and if Scotland allow the Islanders to open up it could be a riot. Caucau is also turning out for the Islanders and believe me it’s worth tuning in just to watch this guy.

Teams:

Islanders:

Taufa’ao Felise (Cardiff Blues, Wales) Tonga Mahonri Schwalger (Wellington, NZ) Samoa Tevita Taumoepeau (Worcester, England) Tonga Simon Raiwalui (Saracens, England) Fiji (captain) Daniel Leo (Wasps, England) Samoa Viliami Vaki (Perpignan, France) Tonga Nili Latu (Bay of Plenty) Tonga Epi Taione (Sanyo, Japan) Tonga Moses Rauluni (Saracens, England) Fiji Tusi Pisi (Massey, NZ) Samoa Rupeni Caucau (Agen, France) Fiji Elvis Seveali’i (Sale, England) Samoa Kameli Ratuvou (Saracens, England) Fiji Lome Fa’atau (Wellington, NZ) Samoa Norman Ligairi (Brive Correze, France) Fiji

Scotland:

15 Chris Paterson (Edinburgh Rugby) 14 Simon Webster (Edinburgh Rugby)13 Marcus Di Rollo (Edinburgh Rugby)12 Andrew Henderson (Glasgow Rugby)11 Sean Lamont (Northampton Saints)10 Dan Parks (Glasgow Rugby)9 Chris Cusiter (Border Reivers)*1 Gavin Kerr (Border Reivers)2 Dougie Hall (Edinburgh Rugby)3 Euan Murray (Glasgow Warriors)*4 Nathan Hines (Perpignan)5 Scott Murray (Edinburgh Rugby)6 Simon Taylor (Edinburgh Rugby)8 Johnnie Beattie (Glasgow Warriors)*7 Kelly Brown (Border Reivers)*

Recommendations: Outright Pacific Islands 11/4 @ Bet 365 AND Islanders +9 @ Paddy Power.

Profit Making Opportunity?

A Wales V New Zealand World Cup Final?

A quick look at Rugby World Cup 2007 reveals the top of half of the draw is likely to throw up quarter-finalists in the form of South Africa, England (pool A), Wales and Australia (pool B). For reasons I'll come to shortly, you could happily back Wales to advance to the semi-finals whether we meet England or South Africa, with a rebound semi-final against fellow pool B member Australia. On the bottom half of the draw, New Zealand and either Scotland or Italy will advance from pool C, while France, Ireland and Argentina will be fighting to advance from pool D. So, let's extrapolate on what we know so far: Wales can beat England or South Africa because these two sides are quite weak. England, arein disarray, while South Africa – those most notorious travellers – oscillate between terrible and admirable. On the other hand, Wales – after the blood-letting of the player revolt that ousted Mike Ruddock as coach, is on the up.

Gareth Jenkins has revitalised Wales and of all the teams chasing the All Blacks, it's the Welsh who most resemble the New Zealanders in terms of depth. After the 29-29 draw with Australia, Jenkins made 14 changes for an easy win over the Pacific Islanders. We all know the importance of depth, given how much Henry has foisted that mantra on the New Zealand rugby public over the past two years. On that score, Wales are ahead of an Australia outfit that could yet go downhill through lack of adequate back-up to its leading 10 or 12 players. The scrum is still weak and John Connolly's experimental backlines have yet to deliver results. If Connolly persists with Mat Rogers at first-five, Australia cannot possibly win the cup and shouldn't go past the semi-finals.

Rogers, one of the most overrated players on the international scene, is too erratic. Not even Stephen Larkham's skills outside can make up his shortcomings. So, it's Wales, with the choice of two brilliant first-fives in captain Stephen Jones and newcomer James Hook, to reach the final. Assuming France recovers from the humiliation of Lyons and return to its place at the top of European rugby, it should finish on top of pool D and avoid the All Blacks in the quarter-final.

Wales are 25-1 with Paddy Power at the moment and will only get shorter as we near the Tournament. Another factor to add in is that Wales are playing the Aussies at home at the Millenium stadium and this really could help Wales win their group and get an easy(ish) quarter final. There will be no over-whelming favourites in the Quarters (barring NZ of course) and I’m convinced there will be money to be made by laying Wales with the 25-1 still in the sky rocket.

Dragons 17- 10 Edinburgh - "Thats right....I'm an idiot"

Apologies folks, thought this one was in the bag.....The weather closed in and it clattered down for the whole game and Mike Circus had a complete nightmare, we should have been winning the first half and not losing it by 10. We also had numerous chances at the end. Gutted.

I suppose I should be happy that we won and kept in touch with the pack.

Montpellier v USAP - French 14

Just had a nod from a friend in the know - apparently USAP are sending out their kids to face Montpellier tomorrow.

Montpellier are available at +3 as of now with Skybet @ 5/4

Dragons v Edinburgh

Dragons v Edinburgh - Friday 10th Nov - KO 7.10PM

When I’ve suggested it to my colleagues that I was going to be betting on the Dragons tonight their initial reactions have been “Right, that’s me putting me mortgage on Edinburgh then” and ”That seals it. Edinburgh to win by 20” as in the past I have been far to over cautious and to be fair, I’ve cost them a couple of quid. Even the most amateur of gamblers knows never to be emotionally involved in a bet but I can’t help it. Don’t say you haven’t been warned.

It’s international weekend and obviously both teams are missing players, thanks to the quality of the Dragons squad we are only missing Morgan, Goughy, Cooper, Owen and Sweeney. Whilst Edinburgh are missing a whole plethora of players, mainly their backs and they have 6 apprentices making the squad – I can only guess that an apprentice is the same as an Academy player here in Wales. It has to be noted that double Lions No8, Simon Taylor is starting for the first time this season for Edinburgh and he’s sure to steady the youngsters but it also has to be noted that Charvis, Ringer and Bearman are in for the Dragons and have been playing out of their skins all season. Charvis and Ringer have been looked over for the Wales squad and I know they will be out to prove a couple of points tonight.

The Dragons squad is:

Newport Gwent Dragons: 15 Aled Thomas, 14 Gareth Wyatt, 13 Nathan Brew, 12 Ashley Smith, 11 Aled Brew, 10 Mike Hercus, 9 Alex Walker, 8 Joe Bearman, 7 Colin Charvis (c), 6 Jamie Ringer, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Andrew Hall, 3 Lee Harrison, 2 Kieran Crawford, 1 Adam Black.Replacements: 16 Ben Daly, 17 Jamie Corsi, 18 Bryn Griffiths, 19 Nic Fitisemanu, 20 Richard Fussell, 21 Craig Warlow, 22 Gareth Baber.

And it really is the strongest we can put out, Aled Thomas makes his first start of the season after injury and has been sorely missed, the Brew brothers are fit and well and the Academy lads playing have already been blooded more than once this season, which is more than can be said for their Edinburgh counterparts. My main worry is Mike Circus, he hasn’t had his kicking boots on at all these past few weeks but Craig Warlow is on the bench should we need to haul the Yank off. Ashley Smith is at 12 and he has impressed me with his brave ball carrying, he could really be one for the future. The secret will be to get the ball wide and I know the lads are more than capable of it.

The bench is also surprisingly strong with Nic, Craig and Gareth who normally start for the Dragons, it’s a whole lot stronger than the Edinburgh bench that’s for sure.
I also feel that Paul Turner has targeted this game, he rested a few vital players away at Leinster last weekend and he knows as well as everyone in Gwent just how important this is, we can either join the pack in the middle of table and keep in touch with Cardiff or we can be cast adrift with Munster and The Borders – it really is the biggest game of the season so far. I think we could get a bonus point win.

Coral are offering –7 on the Dragons but you can get as much as +11 with Edinburgh should you fancy them to turn us over. I don’t.

Recommendation Dragons –7 @ Corals

Wales v Islanders Not Good Enough To Get Into the NZ Side

Wales v Pacific Islanders - Sat 11th Nov - KO 2.30

We're unstoppable! We make 14 changes and we're still unbeatable. We're just like the All Blacks only we're red and we're not All Red. I predict a festival of running rugby, and of course the Welsh will come out on top. James Hook plays his best running rugby from 12, watch out NZ rejects - he's coming for you!

K Morgan: Class, class, class! Makes Chris Cullen look like Chris Martin!

Lee Byrne: Slow and rubbish! I mean, fast and awesome! Watch out for his up-and-under!

Sonny Parker: Oh my dear fucking God, kill me now.

James Hook: What a guy! Prepare to be shredded, Islanders!

Mark Jones: Paaaaaaaaaace! Mark who Gisbergen still has nightmares about him! As do Topsy Ojo, Sean Lamont.....

Ceri Sweeney: THE MAN! THE LEGEND!

Mike Phillips: Look out Islanders! He's going to do to you what he did to France! MASSACRE!!!!!!!!

Alix Popham: Grrrrrr! Bosh! Knock-on.

Gavin Thomas: Kill me kill me kill me kill me kill me kill me

AW Jones: Amazing player! So good he can play out of position and still be awesome!

Michael Owen: Kill me kill me kill me kill me kill me kill me

Sidoli: Funny accent! Can be good when he wants! Feeeeeeel the scrummaging might of Owen and Sidoli

Horsman: DESTROOOOOOOOOYED! The Islanders scrum when he's finished with it. Who cares about yelloe cards? Punching is fun!

Rhys Thomas: Best hooker in Wales! Miles better than hopeless Rees!

Duncan Jones: El Skippero! Amazing player!


I have no idea about this game, no idea at all....what I do know is that the Islanders have the ability to score tries and concede them, as do this Welsh side - I kind of fancy the Islanders with a start but Over 45 points on Betfair looks really really good value at evens.

Italy v Australia

Italy v Australia Sat 11th November - KO 16.00 GMT

Italy were nobodies fools during last years 6 Nations. They should have and could have beaten the Micks but thanks to some diabolical refereeing by Spreaders they fell short – the pushed Scotland and drew with an admittedly under strength Welsh team in Cardiff. The fact of the matter is that they just don’t get steamrollered anymore and I fancy that the Crims may do a bit of experimenting and I don’t mean that in a Queensland Cowboys sort of way…… I could be proved wrong but this game may not start with the same intensity as last weekend.

The Italian scrum is top notch and should really give the Crims a good test, however, the Aussie back line is quality. In all honesty it should be a cracking game and I’m going to take Italy with a healthy start of 24 points @ Mansion

France v New Zealand

Les Bleus v The All Cheats - Sat 11th Nov KO20.00 GMT

You really need to hold your nerve when betting on a French rugby team…they could quite easily mince into Lyon, laugh at the Haka, shrug their Gallic shoulders and then play the most breathtaking rugby ever seen – they could also turn up, decide they really can’t be bothered, eat some cheese, surrender and get turned over by 40 points…such are the French.

The Kiwis have made a lot of changes from the team that burgled England but as you know the kiwis are capable of putting out about 3 world-class teams. ‘Enry has bolstered the scrum a tad and the centre pairing of Mcallister and Smith does look quite attractive. The French players have been all over La Boulangerie so far this season and do look a little bit fatigued and this is their first get together for quite some time. You also have to add in the fact that the French assault on the World Cup starts here and they should be looking to lay down a few markers against a team they should be meeting in the final come next September.

So in summary what do we have? – Buggered if I know but I’m going to go with NZ at –7 @ Bet365 purely because NZ have the capability to change gears in the last quarter and before you know it they can shoot 2 or 3 scores past you. It’s a real acid test for NZ.

It's Bovine Time!!!

2/2 From the weekend, folks!

Recommendation: Glasgow –4 @ VC Bet (Galsgow 39-34)
Recommendation: Ulster – 11 @ Skybet.com (Ulster 32-8)

Summary as follows:

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster - Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow - Lose
Glasgow v Border - Win
Connacht v Ulster - Win
Borders v Leinster - Lose
Ulster v Blues - Win
Ospreys v Glasgow - Win
Ulster v Borders - Win
Glasgow v Conn - Win

If I was a Gambling type of bloke

Thats me on the Bus back from Northampton...

...and I'm not you understand I'd also be keen to back Leinster to beat a Cap of 9 against the Dragons on Saturday evening but i've banned myself from Betting on the Dragons even though common sense tells me otherwise but I've lost just about every bet I've suggested on the lads.

Again, whilst I don't condone betting, if you really must have a flutter you could do worse than watch Munster get torn a new one by the Scarlets on Sunday. Scarlets have a squad and Munster don't, apparently there is a Combine Harvester exhibition this weekend in Limerick and there won't be half the Munster fans there usually is at games such as this. Minus 8 on Bet365 should be taken faster than Cork knacker in a stolen Peugot.

These are not tips, just my thoughts......

and yes, that is a feminine hygeine product protuding from my ear....

Glasgow v Connacht

Glasgow v Connacht-
Friday 3rd November 2006 - 7.30PM KO

As regular readers will know….I’ve been vaunting the return of the Warriors for some time now and feel they are underrated, they’ve had 3 straight wins at home now and have played very well in the European Cup........even some of the local kids are putting down their crack pipes and attendences are on the up.

What I especially like about this game is the fact that Glasgow rested their entire front 5 against Parma, who return tonight and are staying with the backs that ran in close to 70 points, in fact Leonelli is returning so all in all they are looking pretty darn good, all things considered.

Again, as other regular readers will know I have much respect for Conn, they are a small squad with a big heart but they just can’t seem to edge a win, they’ve lost two heartbreakers against GP opposition in the European cup and are playing their first away game since the 1st September.

Glasgow are building up momentum and Conn have lost any they had after their decent start to the campaign. I’ve got to take the –4 from VC Bet – a more true reflection would be about 8, which you can get at William Hill if you fancy Conn but I really don’t think people have noticed how much Glasgow have come on in the last 6 weeks


Form: Glasgow Warriors’ two victories so far in the Magners League have been against Munster and Border Reivers, whilst the Warriors have won their last three games at Hughenden in all competitions. Connacht won last time out in the Magners League: 16-9 at home to the Dragons but this game represents their first away game in the competition since 1 September when they won 29-15 at Border Reivers. Glasgow have the slight edge in the eight previous meetings between the two, gaining four victories to Connacht’s three plus one match drawn.

Recommendation: Glasgow –4 @ VC Bet

Ulster v Borders

Ulster v Borders -

Friday 3rd November 2006 KO 7.30PM

Well, well, well….We are on the cusp of the Autum Internationals and there are some wheeling and dealings taking place with regards to team selections.

The Borders have made 8 changes (with 6 completely new faces) to the side beaten at Northampton last week and whilst Cussiter will always bring something to the table, Ross Ford, the Borders hooker has been suspended by the club and is going to be replaced by debutant, Steve Scott. My Borders contact also describes their new number 8 (Beattie) as “gash” and they have a veritable child playing in the front 3, Ryan Grant.

Ulster are without 6 of their players who lost against the Scarlets last week thanks to the forthcoming International against South Afrikka but still retain a core of classy players. Lets be honest here, Borders are a brave wee team but struggle away from Netherdale, add in the fact that there a 6 brand new squad members, multiply that figure by the factor that the game is being played on a Friday night at Ravers…..and what do you get…….well, unless these 6 new Borders players have been genetically engineered by a top team of scientists located in a secret base below the streets of Auchtermuchty…..you get a shoeing.

Recommendation: Ulster – 11 @ Skybet.com

Betting Summary So Far This Season

Celtic League Handicap Bets

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster - Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow - Lose
Glasgow v Border - Win
Connacht v Ulster - Win
Borders v Leinster - Lose
Ulster v Blues - Win
Ospreys v Glasgow - Win

Selections: 13
Winners: 9
Winning Percentage: 69.23%

Doubles and Trebles

Conn/Edinburgh Double - Win
Glasgow/Ulster Double - Win
Leinster/Munster/Ospreys Treble - Lose

Selections: 3
Winners: 2
Winning Percentage: 66.66%

European Handicap Bets

Bristol v Dragons Lost
Castres v Treviso Win
Calvisano v Stade Francais Lost
Borders v Overmach Parma Win
Leicester v Munster Lost
Ulster v Toulouse Win
Bourgoin v Cardiff Win
Biarritz v Northampton Lost
London Irish v Scarlets Win
Agen v Edinburgh Win

Selections: 10
Winners: 6
Winning Percentage: 60.00%