Blues v Ospreys

I like the look of the Sprays tonight at Evens. Sprays are a better outfit and play a wee bit better away from the souless Liberty Stadium. I am far too hungover to do any kind of write up.

Scarlets v Dragons Fri 22nd KO 7.40

Should Be More Like 20

Here I am, sat at my desk waiting for the day to finish. I’m getting picked up at 5 and then diving through the traffic to deepest darkest West Wales to watch the Dragons take on the Scarlets. You know what? I don’t want to fecken well go, as I know we are going to be properly turned over.

Dragons Coach, Paul Turner is putting out a very strong side, probably the strongest for a while:

Kevin Morgan (c), Nathan Brew, Paul Emerick, Ashley Smith, Aled Brew, Ceri Sweeney, Gareth Cooper, Adam Black, Ben Daly, Lee Harrison, Ian Gough, Luke Charteris, Colin Charvis, Jamie Ringer, Michael Owen

….but in truth I wish he were saving some of the side for the more important Blues game on the 27th but you can’t have everything.

Big round of applause to the Scarlets for their performance last week in Toulouse, outstanding….sadly I nipped out to pub for a swift half when then were 34-10 down so I never got to see the fight back. It’s amazing what you can with £9,000,000 eh Scarlets??? Not that I’m bitter or anything.

The Scarlets are also putting out a good team, Popham is the only notable exception but he’s on the bench:

15 Barry Davies, 14 Darren Daniel, 13 Regan King, 12 Matthew Watkins, 11 Mark Jones, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Dwayne Peel (c), 8 Nathan Thomas, 7 Gavin Thomas, 6 Inoke Afeaki, 5 Scott MacLeod, 4 Adam Jones, 3 Craig Dunlea, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Iestyn Thomas.

Two notable things to take into consideration here. It’s Black Friday in Wales, basically that means the whole country is going on the razz after work and there’s going to be a near sell out and a very boisterous crowd at Stradey. The other thing is that, and it pains me to say it, I really don’t think this Dragons team have enough fight in them. It’s my belief that a few players don’t actually want to play for the Region and wish they were somewhere else, I won’t name names.

Form: Llanelli Scarlets achieved a notable double home and away over Toulouse in the European Cup in the past two weeks, and have now won six of their last seven encounters in all competitions. At home the Scarlets have lost just once in 20 games: 42-49 to Toulouse in January 2006. Newport Gwent Dragons won their most recent match in the Magners League: 17-10 at home to Edinburgh on 10 November but have not managed back-to-back wins in the league since January. The Dragons have won just one of their last ten tussles against fellow Welsh Regions. The Scarlets have won the last five games against the Dragons in league and cup, whilst the Newport based side are yet to win at Stradey as a Region.

Recommendation: Scarlets –12 @ Sporting Odds.

Wales - Vastly Overated.....

Let me just start by saying that I am in fact Welsh.

Just not good enough I’m afraid. To frail in defence and to light up front. Great ball handling skills but in the modern game it isn’t enough to win games for you.

Wales 62-28 Canada

Canada are a 2nd tier nation with only a handful of players playing top flight rugby in Europe (French and English 2nd Tier) and god knows what the Canadian domestic league is like, no offence intended. This game was almost a squad decider for the upcoming Kiwi game, everyone should have been playing for their place……how the hell did they concede 28 points against this lot?

Wales 38 – 20 Pacifica

The Islanders had been together for a full four days before taking on Wales at the Millennium stadium – thank god they threw us two completely mad interception passes and didn’t decide to start playing until the 60th minute. Scotland and Ireland humped the Islanders later on in their tour.

Wales 10 – 47 New Zealand

Enough said.

Wales could be in serious trouble come the end of the 6 Nations – defeats are more than possible in the Ireland, France and England games not to mention the Italian and Scotland fixtures…..despite the talent in the backs there is nothing up front and whilst I know a few of the lads really do try their hearts out they are let down by the fact we don’t have a world class or even international class front 5.

Gareth Jenkins - Got the job because the WRU felt sorry for him, because he's from Llanelli, and because no foreigner in his right mind would coach Wales. "The best coach in Wales" doesn't really mean anything when your competition is along the lines of Lyn Jones and Dai Young

From a betting perspective – Wales look overpriced at 20/1 for the Wooden Spoon at Paddy Power and you should be able to still lay that off for profit.

End of Year Betting Summary......

Happy Christmas Everyone!

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster – Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow – Lose
Glasgow v Border – Win
Connacht v Ulster – Win
Borders v Leinster – Lose
Ulster v Blues – Win
Ospreys v Glasgow – Win
Dragons v Edinburgh – Lose
Edinburgh v Borders – Win
Munster v Connacht – Win
Bristol v Dragons Lost
Castres v Treviso Win
Calvisano v Stade Francais Lost
Borders v Overmach Parma Win
Leicester v Munster Lost
Ulster v Toulouse Win
Bourgoin v Cardiff Win
Biarritz v Northampton Lost
London Irish v Scarlets Win
Agen v Edinburgh Win
Dragons v Bucharest Win
Calvisano v Ospreys Win
Glasgow v Narbonne Win
Conn/Edinburgh Double – Win
Glasgow/Ulster Double – Win
Leinster/Munster/Ospreys Treble – Lose
France v NZ – Win
Italy v Australia – Win
Wales v Pacific Islands – Win
France v New Zealand – Win
Scotland v Pacific Islands - Lost

That give us a winning percentage of 70.27% (not including tonights bets)

Friday Night Action

Well what can I say? I could do a write up on the Ospreys v Calvisano game but it would be a waste of time. The Ospreys are putting out a good side - Calvisano aren't. For those that saw the Ospreys game, Calvisano were given 3 tries on a plate - a massive shiney golden plate - I certainly don't think that will happen again.

Ospreys: L Byrne; N Walker, A Bishop, J Hook, S Williams; G Henson, J Marshall; D Jones (capt), H Bennett, A Jones, A Jones, I Evans, J Thomas, S Tandy, R Jones.Replacements: B Williams, C Griffiths, B Cockbain, A Lloyd, M Roberts, S Connor, J Vaughton.

It's raining in Swansea and I can understand why people may be afraid of the large Cap on this game.

Recommendation: Ospreys -40 @ Paddy Power

And: Winning Margin Bets with Ladbrokes 36-40 @ 6-1 and 31-35 @ 8-1

I know this is hardly exciting but it covers the cap draw and will produce a profit and at the end of the day thats what we are here for.

The Cheeky Gits!!!!!

Skybet have suspended the betting of the Bristol v Bayonne game. Hope you got on.

Bristol v Bayonne Friday 14 Dec - KO 7.30

Here’s a gimme. If Bristol don’t beat the –37 points Cap against Bayonne then I’ll go to the foot of our stairs. Bayonnne have lost in Bucharest and got humped against the Dragons by 50 points. I was at the Dragons game and they literally got into our 22 once during the entire game…they were truly dire and that was against our Academy side. Granted Bristol may rest a few players but in order to beat the Dragons to the top of the group they need a bonus point to keep pace. They will get the BP easily and will want to repay a loyal and numerous crowd at the Memorial with a high scoring display.

Just a quick note from Hill after the Bayonne game last week:

“At Bayonne we had gale force winds and driving rain – the referee had to keep stopping the match because the advertising hoardings were being blown onto the pitch – and, as we were playing into the wind in the first half, we simply could not kick the ball.
“That meant keeping the ball in hand and our ball retention and phase play was excellent, resulting in us scoring three very good tries and that was effectively the job done by half-time before we had the gale on our backs. Now we are focusing on the return leg.”

Bayonne are basically using the same 22 as last week – honestly folks – a gimme. In fact it could get embarrassing for the French

Recommendation: Bristol –37 @ Skybet*

A Productive Weekend

Good weekend all round really with 3 from 3, hope some of you got on.

European Betting Sumamry

Bristol v Dragons Lost
Castres v Treviso Win
Calvisano v Stade Francais Lost
Borders v Overmach Parma Win
Leicester v Munster Lost
Ulster v Toulouse Win
Bourgoin v Cardiff Win
Biarritz v Northampton Lost
London Irish v Scarlets Win
Agen v Edinburgh Win
Dragons v Bucharest Win
Calvisano v Ospreys Win
Glasgow v Narbonne Win

Now....As You Know - I'm Not a Gambling Kinda Guy.....

......but if I were, I’d being going on these games this weekend

Calvisano v Ospreys

Calvisano have shipped over 100 points in their last two games in the HEC and the Opsreys are heading over to Italy with a view to a must-win bonus points victory if they are to be kept in the mix for qualification. –20 points is just a touch to low for a fully fit and rested Ospreys outfit.


Glasgow v Narbonne

Readers will know that I’ve been watching Glasgow for a few months now and I think they are primed to really shove it to this Narbonne team – You can’t really read to much into the 70 point stuffing Glasgow gave Parma in the last round apart from the fact Narbonne scrapped to a 3 point victory in Italy against the same team…..I think the French have now realised they are out of the comp and may send a team of kids over to Glasgow. The victory for Glasgow is imperative tonight. A shoe in at Glasgow –8 at Skybet.

Dragons v Bucharesti - Fri 8th KO 7.30

Dragons v Bucharesti

Dai, you’re an idiot, a complete head the ball, what are you doing betting on the Dragons again?

Look, I just can’t help myself. We are putting out our strongest possible team tonight and I just can’t see how we are not going to beat the might of Bucharesti by more than 50 points. Ok, so Bucharesti beat an Under 11 Reserve Bayonne XV and they ran a Bristol 2nd Team reasonably close in the Romanian capital which I can only applaud….but this is Rodney Parade.

This my friends is a decent team:


Dragons: Kevin Morgan (c), Gareth Wyatt, Nathan Brew, Ashley Smith, Aled Brew, Ceri Sweeney, Gareth Cooper, Adam Black, Ben Daly, Lee Harrison, Ian Gough, Luke Charteris, Andrew Hall, Jamie Ringer, Colin Charvis

Replacements:Kieran Crawford, Jamie Corsi, Michael Owen, Nic Fitisemanu, Alex Walker, Mike Hercus, Richard Fussell.

The vast majority of the side are rested as it was the Academy lads who played against Worcester in the EDF Cup last weekend. We are a physical side, very physical and whilst I’m sure Bucharesti will be up for this in their own way I can see them being beaten up by just not being used to the intensity and when they start to reel in the second half we have the players in Morgan, The Brews Brothers and Ceri Sweeney who can certainly carve out numerous scoring opportunities….Nic Fitsi will scare the life out of them when he appears in the second half.

I know a lot of you don’t like betting on big caps and I do understand the reasoning behind this but this, in my opinion, is a gimme. We are a good side and we punished a Bayonne side by 50, again with just our Academy lads. Just for the record – Gloucester beat Bucharesti by 106 points last year. Also…..”Billy Smart” – Mike Hercus the Circus isn’t starting fur us and thats worth at least 14 points.

Recommendation: Dragons –50 at Blue Square. All other books are operating around the –60 mark so I’m seeing it as a bonus 10 points for us.

No Such Thing as Form?

Northern Ireland 1 - 0 England

Form Does NOT exist.


I am occasionally aware that my attitudes to life are not the same as everyone else's. The time I supported the siting of a McDonalds in a middle-class area, for instance. Or the time I asked Frank McAvennie for his autograph. (Does it make it better or worse that I was 14 years old?) Yet there are few things that leave me as isolated as my view about form in football. Form, you see, is the staple of football commentary. They discuss team form and player form all day on talkSPORT. It features in every match report in every paper. Punters in every part of the country are, as you read this piece, drawing circles around ties where the odds look good, because the punter, you see, knows a thing or two about the form of the full back.

... And here's my view, the Fink Tank view, form does not exist!. There have been various studies in America about the so-called "hot hand" in competitive sport. It's a phrase that is used to describe basketball players who are doing well in a game. The fans plead for the ball to be passed to a player who is scoring points, the man with the hot hand. The academics say hot hand is a figment of the imagination.

The only US sport where there appears to be any evidence for any sort of "hot hand" is ten-pin bowling. Here, players can very, very briefly be on a roll. So what about football? Fink Tank has been conducting one of its periodic investigations into the question of form, using different methods to previous occasions. Dr Matthew Atkinson and Dr Henry Stott began by dividing every Premiership result for the past six years into hits and misses. Hits are games where a side wins and misses are those where they draw or lose. Every team can now be ascribed an average hit rate for the past six years. Chelsea's is the best with a 66.9 per cent hit rate they edge out Arsenal, on 62.3 per cent, and Manchester United, on 61.15 per cent. Sunderlands 9.68 per cent rate is comfortably the worst. These hit rates tell you how likely it is that a given streak of hits will occur. The higher the hit rate the longer the streaks you might expect to see in the normal course of things. A team who win 50 per cent of the time are quite likely to win in clumps of, say, three, but if they start winning eight on the trot it is time to sit up and take notice.

We then started looking for streaks of hits and misses to see whether any were sufficiently long that, using the strictest possible statistical test, we would judge remarkable. And heres the thing; we did find some. Thirteen in all, including two streaks of Liverpool hits and one streak of misses making them the streakiest side. So have we been wrong? Is this evidence that form exists after all? We worked up a new test. We divided each teams results into four categories: prior win and current win; prior win and current non-win; prior non-win and current win; prior non-win and current non-win. Then we applied something called the Chi Square analysis. Not a single team won a significantly greater proportion of games after wins than after non-wins. There is no hot-hand effect at all. Winning one or more games does not change your chance of winning the next one. So how to explain those few surprising streaks over the past six years? Not by form, but by lumpiness of easy and difficult fixtures. Form does not exist. It just doesn't. Now off you go to the pub and try telling them that before the match. I wish you luck.

Don't Have time to Do A Write Up....

But I really fancy Connacht with a 17 point start at Munster today.

Betting Summary

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster - Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow - Lose
Glasgow v Border - Win
Connacht v Ulster - Win
Borders v Leinster - Lose
Ulster v Blues - Win
Ospreys v Glasgow - Win
Dragons v Edinburgh - Lose
Edinburgh v Borders - Win


Selections: 14 Winners: 10 Winning Percentage: 71.42%

Edinburgh v Borders - Fri 1st Dec KO 7.30pm

Edinburgh v Borders

I’ve hummed and harred about this game a lot……First look at the Caps lead me to believe it was a gimme for the Burghers, then I realised that the Borders pack have been reunited and do play well as a unit, then I’ve tried to factor in the loss of Border’s captain, Chris Cussiter but decided that Calum McCrae is more than a good enough replacement, to make matters worse I then found out Edinburgh had made 3 brand new decent signings to the squad and all should play a part in tonight’s game…..this lead me to drink a bottle of Port last night. I still feel remarkably sick come Friday lunchtime. Ah well.


Edinburgh need to get back on track after their defeat against the Dragons a couple of weeks ago and as an eye witness the defensive display was quite impressive in terrible conditions. I think they know the importance of this game and that a bonus point win really is their target. If Edinburgh do give away silly penalties then McCrae is more than capable of kicking them from anywhere, I expect Borders to start well tonight and then get ground down.



Form: Edinburgh have lost back to back Magners League matches to Cardiff Blues and Newport Gwent Dragons, however the capital side have never lost at home to a fellow Scottish side in the history of the league. Border Reivers have lost their last three games in all competitions and have won just once on the road in the league since September 2005: 20-8 at Glasgow on 3 March. The two sides have clashed on six previous occasions in the league with each match being won by the home side on the day. The Reivers have lost on both of their previous visits to Murrayfield


Edinburgh: 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Chris Paterson (c), 13 Marcus Di Rollo, 12 Andrew Easson, 11 Ben Cairns, 10 Phil Godman, 9 Mike Blair, 8 Dave Callam, 7 Simon Taylor, 2 Dougie Hall, 3 Alasdair Dickinson, 4 Matt Mustchin, 5 Scott Murray, 6 Alasdair Strokosch, 1 Allan Jacobsen.Replacements: 16 Steven Lawrie, 17 Dave Hewett, 18 Chris Bentley, 19 Ross Rennie, 20 John Senio, 21 Duncan Hodge, 22 Lucio Lopez Fleming.

Border Reivers: 15 Calum MacRae (c), 14 Brendon Daniel, 13 Bryan Rennie, 12 Nick De Luca, 11 Garry Law, 10 Steve Jones, 9 Brendan McKerchar, 8 Kelly Brown, 7 Scott Gray, 6 John Dalziel, 5 Craig Hamilton, 4 Opeta Palepoi, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Gavin Kerr. Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Ed Kalman, 18 Stuart Grimes, 19 Ryan Grant, 20 Calum Cusiter/Rob Chrystie, 21 Andy Miller, 22 Gregor Townsend


Recommendations: Got to take the Gunners @ -14 with Paddy Power but I’m going to be cautious here and take Edinburgh to win 11-15 on the winning margins @ 11-2 with VC Bet

Fame At Last.....

Well not quite.

http://www.punterslounge.com/nl18.php

This thread is also full of quality and mainly thanks to DAC, who has done a tremendous job, well, tremendous would be an understatement really. Plenty of winners in this thread and plenty of quality previews - what more could you want? Oh, he's not a bad poker player either