Betting on Ice - The Magners Celtic League Betting Blog: September 2006

Wench - Get Me A Double.....

Leinster Outright = 2/5 @ Stan James

Edinburgh Outright = 3/10 @ Sporting odds

Pays: £18.20 to a £10.00 stake.

Edinburgh v Glasgow Friday 29th October 2006

Edinburgh v Glasgow Friday 29th October 2006

It’s Lyn Howell’s first game in charge of the Gunners tonight and as with most changes in management in Rugby the Edinburgh lads will be doing their utmost to impress their new coach.

The Gunners team is relatively unchanged tonight he Glasgow team for the inter-city clash is a much-changed one following the defeat to Cardiff Blues last week, with four changes in the backs (one positional) and a bench with only two personnel remaining.

In the backs, Sean Marsden wins his second start for the Warriors, this time at fullback, with Graeme Morrison rejoining the squad at outside centre, Andy Henderson reverting to inside centre and stand-off Colin Gregor getting his first start of the season.

Form: Edinburgh Gunners are unbeaten in their last three Magners League matches, and have won all four previous games they have played at Murrayfield in the league against fellow Scottish teams. Glasgow Warriors have won just one of their last five league encounters: 24-13 over Munster at Hughenden on 15 September. The Warriors have won just once away from home in any competition since April 2005: 26-20 also against Munster at Thomond Park on 18 February 2006. The last five matches between the two have gone in favour of the home side on the day, whilst the last Glasgow win in Edinburgh was 33-26 at Myreside in the Welsh-Scottish League on 15 September 2000.

Recommendation:

It's probably going to be very tight first half but at the end of the Day the gunners do have the better squad on paper, it's also at Murrayfield which is worth a score at least. Glasgow do have a lot of huff and puff but nothing I've seen so far can convince me that their backs can break through the line.

Edinburgh -9 at Sporting Odds

Connacht v Leinster Friday 29th October 2006

Tricky Weekend…..

As already posted, it’s the Irish Inter-Provincial games this weekend which makes for difficult decisions, it’s also the Scottish derby up North. Hmmmm.

Leinster and Munster both have their full quota of international players back and rumour has it that the guy’s coming back are chomping at the bit at the chance of actually playing again.

Connacht v Leinster - Friday 29 September

Brian O'Driscoll returns to captain the Leinster side for his first competitive start of the season alongside the returning Shane Horgan - who he partners at centre - and Girvan Dempsey, for Leinster at Connacht in the Magners league on Friday.

Luke Fitzgerald retains his place on the wing, while both Gordon D'Arcy and Malcolm O'Kelly have been named on a strong-looking bench which includes ex-Connacht duo Ronan McCormack and Bernard Jackman

Form: Mark McHugh salvaged a 22-all draw for Connacht last Friday night against Edinburgh with a superb 87th minute penalty goal from 40 metres out. This game is Connacht’s 7th home game in their last eight matches and they are due to play two more gamesat the Sportsground before this current home run ends! Leinster’s previous six league games have gone; won, lost, won, lost, won, lost, but away from home they have won just once in their last four trips: 31-8 at Edinburgh on 26 May.

Recommendation:

As I've previously mentioned lots of times, Conn are a notoriously good and brave side at home but I was impressed with Leinster last weekend at the Scarlets and having BOD, their talisman back in the side only pushes more more towards a decent Leinster win. William Hill are offering a converted score to Conn so I'm taking Leinster at -7

What You Need to Beat the Bookies!

You need accounts – and lots of them, you also need a shortcut to http://www.oddschecker.com/ on your desktop. If you are going to take your betting seriously you need to open as many accounts as you can and manage them successfully.

Why? Because, especially when they first announce their odds on the day of a game you can get wild fluctuations in prices before they all settle and bring themselves slightly more into line. You can see for yourself on www.oddschecker.com Sometimes, and I don’t jest, you can get upwards of 7 points on a handicap than another bookmaker is offering and that is just to bloody good to pass up.

Here’s a quick list of accounts you should have and why:

William Hill = It’s ultra fast and by far the best navigable site on the market, their Rugby cappers really do know their stuff and I sometimes use them as a bench mark, especially when comparing odds. That’s why I have had them sponsor the blog – you can visit them for yourself at the bottom of the page.

Paddy Power = Fantastic site, not such as easy navigable site and the colours are not easy on the eye but their capper is so bias in favour of Irish teams it really isn’t funny, well it is if you know what I mean. You have to have these guys.

VC Bet (Victor Chandler) = Another of my all time favourites, good enough site but their capper is pretty average – they also tend to be on the end the fluctuation market and you can grab yourself bonus points on the cap if you visit early enough on a Friday or Saturday.

Boyle Sports = What these guy’s know about Rugby you could write on the back of a postage stamp, and still have space for Andy Robinson’s team talk - they are great and I love them.

Other Accounts you should have:

SportingOdds.com
Ladbrokes.com
StanJames.com

If you intend to win money by following this blog – you MUST have the accounts I’ve suggested as if we think that the +10 VC Bet are offering on a certain game is a steal and your account with Ladbrokes is only offering +7 – you’re cheating yourself out of a score.

Do it now.

Inter Pro Build Up.....

It’s Interpro Time!

This is what celtic rugby is all about – the annual renewal of provincial rugby’s oldest rivalries. This weekend sees the mighty Gringos travel south on a raid to sack the Turnips. There’ll be buckets of turnip soup available in the wilds of the north next week. Also, Connacht, struggling with uncontrollable nose bleeds from the unprecedented altitude they’ve ascended, will host the Princes of European rugby in the imposingly impressive bit of old field that isthe Galway dog track.

On Friday evening, before the crowds arrive for the race meeting, Leinster will be hoping to get their season off the ground when they face a Connacht team thatwill be reasonably confident following their recent run of good form. Leinster have most of their international stars available and surely they will play somepart in the game against the Mountainy Men. The one positive about the return of the stars, is that Cheika won’t be able to over play his raft of mates that are currently infecting the Leinster game – the fat useless bastards.

On Saturday, Munster are going to be humped.

Updated Betting Summary - September 2006

September Celtic League Betting Summary – All Stakes £10.00

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose - £10.00

Ospreys v Blues – Win - £3.85

Conn v Scarlets – Win + £15.24

Ospreys v Borders – Win + £24.33

Leinster v Blues – Lost + £14.33

Blues v Glasgow – Win + £33.42

Conn v Leinster - Win + £42.52

Edinburgh v Glasgow - lose + £32.52

Leinster/Edinburgh double - Win £50.62

Not a bad profit, all things considered.

Dancing Cows! Young and Sweet Only Seventeen....

Friday night and the lights are low:

Recommendation: 10 Points Cardiff -10 @ 5/6 Skybet.com

Back to winning ways, folks.

Jokes....

Jeremy Guscott

Jeremy Guscott was going to Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyndrobwyllandysylioggogogoch R.F.C.to speak at a gentlemen's evening. As he was driving up, he decided to learn how to say the rugby club's name and get a massive round of applause. As he arrived he called into a café, and said to the waitress "Can you tell me where I am, but speak very slowly?" The waitress, puckered up her lips and said "Burrrrr gerrrrrrr king"

The Pope

On a tour of Wales, the Pope took a couple of days off his Itinerary to visit the West coast near Aberystwyth on an impromptu sightseeing trip.
His 4X4 Popemobile was driving along the golden sands when there was an enormous commotion heard just off the headland. They rushed to see what it was and upon approaching the scene the Pope noticed just outside the surf, a hapless man wearing an English Rugby jersey, struggling frantically to free himself from the jaws of a twenty foot shark.
At that moment a speedboat containing three men wearing Welsh Rugby Shirts roared into view from around the point. Spontaneously, one of the men took aim and fired a harpoon into the shark's ribs, immobilising it instantly. The other two reached out and pulled the Englishman from the water and then, using long clubs, beat the shark to death.
They bundled the bleeding, semi conscious man into the speed boat along with the dead shark and then prepared for a hasty retreat, when they heard frantic shouting from the shore. It was of course the Pope, and he summoned them to the beach.
Upon them reaching the shore the Pope went into raptures about the rescue and said, "I give you my blessing for your brave actions. I had heard that there were some racist xenophobic people trying to divide Wales and England, but now I have seen with my own eyes this is not true. I can see that your society is a truly enlightened example of racial harmony and could serve as a model on which other nations could follow.
"He blessed them all and drove off in a cloud of dust. As he departed, the harpoonist asked the others, "Who was that???!"
"That," one answered, "was his Holiness the Pope. He is in direct contact with God and has access to all God's wisdom."
"Well," the harpoonist replied, "he knows nowt about shark hunting.
How's that bait holding up or do we need to get another one?"

Ref!

A rugby referee died and went to heaven. Stopped by St Peter at the gates he was told that only brave people who had performed heroic deeds and had the courage of their convictions could enter. If he could describe a situation in his life where he had shown these characteristics, he would be allowed in. "Well," said the ref, "I was controlling a game between Wales and England in Cardiff. Wales were two points ahead with a minute to go. Ben Cohen made a break, passed inside to Martin Johnson. Johnson was driven on by his forwards, before he passed out to Lawrence Dallaglio who went over in the corner. But Dallaglio dropped the ball before he could ground it. As England were clearly the better side all game, I ruled that he had got it down and awarded the try."
"OK, that was fairly brave of you, but I will have to check it in the book," said Peter, before disappearing to look it up. When he came back he said: "Sorry, there's no record of this. Can you help me to trace it? When did all this happen?"
The ref looked at his watch and replied, "45 seconds ago."

Ugly?

Madonna, Tom Thumb and Quasimodo were playing in the woods one day, when out of the blue Madonna shouts: I'm the prettiest girl in the world.. Tom Thumb in turn shouts out: I'm the smallest man in the world, and not to be outdone, Quasimodo shouts: Well I'm the ugliest man in the world. To be absolutely sure they decide to go and visit the witch in the woods and her crystal ball. Madonna goes in first. Five minutes later she comes out dancing and singing and tells the others: It's true, I am the prettiest of them all. Tom Thumb goes in next... he comes out five minutes later, jumping up and down, waving his arms in the air: Yippee he shouts, I'm the smallest man in the world. Quasimodo then goes in for the final verdict. Five minutes later he comes out, head bowed and tearful. Madonna and Tom Thumb, a bit concerned, ask what happened. Quasimodo replies: Who the hell is Brian Moore?

Handicap League Betting - Newport Gwent Dragons

Handicap League Betting

Newport Gwent Dragons + 28 Points 9/1

Now, I’m liking this. It doesn’t look like Skybet have updated their odds and I’ve just checked this morning and they are still offering the bet. The Dragons are no where near as bad as everyone thought them to be and if they win a winnable game up in Borders tonight then this bet looks all the more tasty.

Last year we finished 30 points behind the eventual winners, Ulster. We have a stronger team, and more importantly, a better attitude than last year and if we pick up the odd losing bonus points away and take advantage of us not having to commit teams to the HEC like our league counterparts have to then I can see this bet running very close.

9/1 is huge.

Gratuitous Picture Of Girl With Massive Jugs

Cardiff Blues v Glasgow Warriors - Friday 22nd September KO 6.40PM

Cardiff Blues v Glasgow Warriors - Friday 22nd September KO 6.40PM

Only 10 points eh?

Well, it’s not as though we haven’t been stung by the handicaps so far this season but to be honest, Blues should beat the Warriors convincingly. The Warriors had a great win against the second string Turnipstanis last week and that should bolster them but to be honest, an Iceland XV could beat the Munster Reserves at the moment.

The Blues are notoriously slow starters and now need to lift their game to another level if they are going to compete for honours. Their first three matches have contained an unbelievable amount of handling errors and the back line moves were not working, I’m willing to bet that tonight will see an improved performance. Don’t forget, they were very unlucky to lose against a full strength Ospreys team at the Liberty and just got out edged out against Leinster in an always tricky away game.

Form: Cardiff Blues have slipped to successive defeats away at the Ospreys and Leinster. However, at home they have set a new Blues record with six wins in a row since losing to Edinburgh at the Arms Park on 27 January. Glasgow Warriors ended a three match losing streak with a 24-13 victory over Munster at Hughenden on Friday. The Warriors have not won successive league games since beating Connacht and Edinburgh last November-December. Glasgow Warriors have won just one of their last ten encounters against Welsh opponents since April 2005: 17-10 over the Scarlets at Firhill on 12 May. Glasgow have made eight previous visits to the Arms Park for a
competition match and have won just once: 44-35 in the League on 31 August 2002

Cardiff Blues: 15 Ben Blair, 14 Mosese Luveitasau, 13 Tom Riley, 12 Tom Shanklin, 11 Chris Czekaj, 10 Nicky Robinson, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Xavier Rush (Capt), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Scott Morgan, 5 Robert Sidoli, 4 Deiniol Jones, 3 Toufaao Filise, 2 T Rhys Thomas, 1 Gethin Jenkins.Replacements: 16 John Yapp, 17 Gareth Williams, 18 James Goode, 19 Mark Lewis, 20 Ed Fairhurst, 21 Nick Macleod, 22 Dai Flannigan.

Glasgow: 15 Francisco Leonelli, 14 Hefin O'Hare, 13 Andrew Henderson, 12 Scott Barrow, 11 Thom Evans, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Graeme Beveridge, 8 John Beattie, 7 John Barclay, 6 Andrew Wilson, 5 Alastair Kellock, 4 Andy Newman, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Fergus Thomson, 1 Justin Va'a.Replacements: 16 Eric Milligan, 17 Kevin Tkachuk, 18 Dan Turner, 19 Calum Forrester, 20 Sam Pinder, 21 Colin Gregor, 22 Sean Marsden.Date: Friday, September 22

Recommendation: 10 Points Cardiff -10 @ 5/6 Skybet.com

Profile on....Glasgow Warriors

GLASGOW SEE POSITIVE ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT

Showing typical perception, new Glasgow Head coach Sean Leakingline defiantly announced that the only way is up after Glasgow finished bottom of the heap in last year’s league.

He welcomed the team’s return to Hughenden (previous coach Hugh Campbell lost his job after leaking to the press that the players called it their Coliseum – because it was a f**king ruin). “We know that the blueprint for success for Scottish teams has been signposted by our cousins across the Irish Sea, so I was very pleased that as we try to emulate Munster and the like, we’re back on a pitch only fit to plough and plant potatoes”

Glasgow have had a problem with attracting the crowds recently, and Sean wants to appeal to a new audience, particular younger supporters – girls even. Hence his bold step in signing former boyband singer Thom Evans to add to the pretty boy backline.

The area of the team that really needed fixing was up front, and Sean lost no time in landing his biggest catch – in more ways than one – Justin Va’a. Sean didn’t realise that the 21 stone prop had already played for Samoa, because Sean had a Scots granny from Stornoway lined up for him. Sean strenuously denied that he only discovered his own granny from there after the records office on the island was destroyed by fire.

Glasgow showed that they were in good hands on the first night of the season, racing to a 20 point lead in as many minutes against an under strength Dragons side, and then spending the next 60 throwing it away.

This left Glasgow fans (there are still a few) asking “Why?”

Are we so pish?
Do we continuously under-achieve?
Do what’s left of us bother coming back?
Would anyone be interested in buying this outfit?

This year’s tips

Avoid betting on them when Dan Parks is playing
Only bet on them when it is against all the odds that they will win (see above rule also)

UPDATE: Glasgow beat Cousin Feckers by 24-13

Leinster v Cardiff Blues - Saturday 15th September 2006 KO 7.30pm

Leinster v Cardiff Blues - Saturday 15th September KO 7.30pm

Another tricky one here, Leinster aren’t at full strength and the Blues are recovering after their exertions against the Ospreys, who notably went on to a convincing win against the Borders last night. Leinster have got a couple of their Irish stars back, Hickie for example who will add something to their back line. The Blues, very importantly I think, have their 3rd choice hooker playing tonight I’ve been doing a little trawling the Fans forums and the Leinster fans are quietly confident but this was causing a little consternation on the Blues site:

"To be honest i have no idea why hes done it. My thoughts though are, Dia was in the press over here saying he wanted to win two out of the three games that opened the season. I personally think he always targeted the first game and the Os game to win and never had any intention of going for the Leinster game. If thats not the case maybe with the injuries he has written it off and decided not to risk the players to injury when they aint going to win"

This kind of seals the deal for me. Dai is resting players for the EDF cup and the HEC

Form: Leinster’s season began last weekend with a 14-20 defeat at Edinburgh, but at home Leinster have won seven in a row in all competitions at three different grounds. Cardiff are playing away to the Ospreys on Wednesday evening and have not won in Ireland since an 18-8 victory at Connacht on 22 January 2005. Both encounters between the two teams last season were won by the home side on the day.

Leinster: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Luke Fitzgerald, 13 Kieran Lewis, 12 Michael Berne, 11 Denis Hickie, 10 Felipe Contepomi (c), 9 Chris Whitaker, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Niall Ronan, 6 Stephen Keogh, 5 Owen Finegan, 4 Adam Byrnes, 3 Will Green, 2 Harry Vermaas, 1 Ronan McCormack.Replacements: 16 Reggie Corrigan, 17 Bernard Jackman, 18 Devin Toner, 19 Keith Gleeson, 20 Guy Easterby, 21 Christian Warner, 22 Gary Brown.

Cardiff Blues: 15 Ben Blair, 14 Chris Czekaj, 13 Tom Riley, 12 Marc Stcherbina, 11 Mosese Luveitasau, 10 Nick Macleod, 9 Wayne Evans, 8 Xavier Rush (c), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Mark Lewis, 5 James Goode, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Gary Powell, 2 Gareth Williams, 1 John Yapp.Replacements: 16 Taufaao Felise, 17 Ross Johnson, 18 Robert Sidoli, 19 Scott Morgan, 20 Ed Fairhurst, 21 David Flanagan

Date: Saturday, September 16Kick-off: 19:30 (18:30 GMT)Venue: DonnybrookReferee: Andy Macpherson (Scotland)

This ref is scottish and therefore a massive homer.

Recommendation: With love to VC Bet for the minus 7 they are giving to Leinster - Love you Guy's. 10 Pts Leinster -7

Oh My God - The Cows Are Going Mental!

Recommendation: 10 Pts Ospreys -6 at Sporting odds.com

Ospreys 30-13 Borders

Marlene!........ get the motor

Let the Cows Dance!!

VC Bet, in our opinion are offering a very generous 6 points to the Scarlets. 10Pts Bet.

Scarlets beat the spread. Connacht 15 - 37 Scarlets

Friday Afternoon NEWSFLASH

William Hill.com are offering -5 on the Ospreys.

What? do they know that we don't? I've done a bit of juggling and will be aiming to plump for Hills generous offer - Will do a bit of a quick look to see if anything is remiss about the Sprays.

Edit;

All I've found is that the Borders 1st choice kicker is out of the game tonight

Ospreys v Borderererers Friday 15th September KO 7.10pm

Ospreys v Borderererers Friday 15th September KO 7.10pm

Ospreys v Bordererererers

Well, the Sprays have been, to put it politely, utter shite since their opening game of the season against Edinburgh. The pretty boys have failed to shine (hair gel excepted) and none of the new faces have gelled (insert hair pun here). That said, they have a great squad on paper and I really can’t believe that Sporting Odds are only giving them a –6 cap. They could quite easily put a bucketload on the Bordererereres tonight and they owe it to themselves, the management and more importantly the fans. There are no prima donnas on the team tonight – I fully expect a much better performance

Preview

Border Reivers' head coach Steve Bates has made only two changes to the team that started last Saturday's game against Munster for the Magners League match against the Ospreys on Friday.

Fullback Calum MacRae misses his first competitive appearance in 16 games due to a thigh strain which he suffered during the narrow 9-8 defeat.
Steve Jones fills the full-back berth, and Gregor Townsend returns to the starting line-up after being selected on the bench last week due to a stomach bug.
"We really improved our performance against Munster, we really could have won that game, but our focus all week has been entirely on tomorrow's game against The Ospreys which is going to be another great opportunity to develop our team play," said Bates.
As expected, the Ospreys have changed almost their entire team for the trip, and are still awaiting tests to find out which of the battered troops are ready to take a place on the bench.
Shaun Connor and James Hook line up at 10 and 12 respectively, with Gavin Henson almost certain to sit out the game completely.
"We were pleased with what was a much improved team performance on Wednesday night, but the players are pretty battered and bruised after a physical encounter," said assistant coach Sean Holley.
"Needless to say we have a strong squad this year and we are looking forward to seeing a number of different combinations on show against the Borders.

"The Borders are continuing to evolve into a threatening team and will be looking for their first win of the season. "Our players will need to perform to the best of their ability to gain any advantage over them. "Although it has physically been a difficult week the mood in our camp remains excellent. There is a strong work ethic amongst the boys and a serious intent to perform in this match."

Form:

The Ospreys won on Wednesday evening against the Blues, and have won their last five matches they have played against Scottish opposition. Border Reivers have won just once in their last nine outings: 43-5 at home to Newport Gwent Dragons on 26 May, whilst the Reivers have not won on the road since a 20-8 victory at Glasgow on 3 March. Border Reivers have never won a match in Wales in 17 previous trips in all competitions. The Ospreys have won four of the six previous meetings they have had with the Reivers, although both encounters last season were won by the home side on the day.

Ospreys: 15 Stefan Terblanche, 14 Richard Mustoe, 13 Tal Selley, 12 James Hook, 11 Jonny Vaughton, 10 Shaun Connor, 9 Martin Roberts, 8 Andy Lloyd, 7 Steve Tandy, 6 Lee Beach, 5 Lyndon Bateman, 4 Alun Wyn Jones, 3 Andrew Millward, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Paul James (c), Replacements: 16 Barry Williams, 17 Cai Griffiths, 18 Mike Powell. The rest of the replacements bench will be finalised just ahead of the match

Border Reivers: 15 Steve Jones, 14 Garry Law, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Ben MacDougall, 11 Mark Robertson, 10 Gregor Townsend, 9 Chris Cusiter (c), 8 Ross Beattie, 7 Scott Gray, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Craig Hamilton, 4 Opeta Palepoi, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Gavin Kerr.Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Ed Kalman, 18 Stuart Grimes, 19 Andy Miller, 20 Brendan McKerchar, 21 Simon Danielli, 22 Dougie Flockhart.

Date: Friday, September 15Kick-off: 19:10 (18:10 GMT)Venue: Liberty StadiumReferee: David Keane (Ireland)Touch judges: David Bodilly, Neil Howells

Recommendation: 10 Pts Ospreys -6 at Sporting odds.com

Spotlight on Munster RUFC

Munster Mooses

Killian Keane, a long time hero of Munster rugby, said recently, the 2006/07 season is make or break for Munster. He acknowledged that the previous season was a particularly weak one in European rugby terms and that Munster only coming third in the Celtic League showed a distinct lack of ambition amongst the players and all to prevalent weaknesses in the abilities of the coach.

He did concede though, that Munster had recruited possibly the best youngout-half in Europe during the off-season, Eoghan Hickey, pinching him from under the noses of their arch rivals, Leinster. Also back in the Munster fold is Brian O’Meara, so things are looking up for the development of a Munster backline, so often criticised for playing like Scotland.

Although critical of Munster’s play the previous season, Keane, a die-hard Munster bandwagoner, of course was bullish about the upcoming season. He predicted that Munster would improve their Magners League position and that if Declan Kidney did manage to get across to his players that rugby also involved running with the ball then they could even win the bloody thing – yeehaa!Quite, Killian!

Predictions:

Magners League – 2nd
Rose of Tralee – Ronan O’Gara to make the top 3.

Connacht v Scarlets - Friday 15th September KO 18.30

Connacht v Scarlets - Friday 15th September KO 18.30

Blimey this is a hard one to call, Conn are on fire at the moment and deserve their high placing in the Magners League. Scarlets on the other hand are coming off the back of a bruising encounter with the Gwent Dragons.

There’s no doubt about it, this is going to be another closely contested and hard fought game, whether Scarlets will be up for another one so soon after the Dragons game has yet to be seen but I like some of the changes they have made to their squad with a few players returning to their favoured positions. Conn are to be congratulated on their win against the Sprays last week but as seen on Wednesday, the Sprays are in utter dire form. Conn certainly won’t be facing a team of pretty boys with no warm up games under their belts.

Preview:
For the second game running the Scarlets have named a side showing five changes to the previous starting line-up.

There are also two positional changes with captain Simon Easterby moving to the openside to allow James Bater a start on the blindside while Matthew Watkins moves back to his preferred position of centre as Dafydd James returns to the left wing.

Elsewhere, Clive Stuart-Smith gets a run-out at scrum-half and Darren Daniel at fly-half while Phil John replaces Iestyn Thomas at loose-head prop and Adam Jones takes over from Lou Reed in the second row.

Nathan Thomas comes in for Alix Popham at number eight.
There's also a welcome return to Wales winger Mark Jones on the bench.
"We are aware of the challenge we face against Connacht," said Scarlets Director of Rugby Phil Davies. "They beat the Ospreys last weekend and have won two from two so are obviously in top form. We have great respect for them. They are the type of side who never give up."
Meanwhile, Connacht have unsurprisingly announced the same starting side which defeated the Ospreys last week.

There is one change on the bench though, with centre John Hearty coming into the side in place of Darren Yapp, who was troubled during the week by a leg injury.
Coach Michael Bradley is hoping that the Connacht fans can reproduce the atmosphere in which the Ospreys fell to defeat last week.
"The quality of the Connacht support has always been excellent, what we need is more of them to increase the volume," said Bradley.

"It was superb on Friday night the way the supporters got right behind the side, especially in the second-half when the game was hanging in the balance.
"That backing has to be worth a score or two. Let's hope we can build on the Friday night experience and the fan base will continue to grow in the coming weeks."

Form:

Connacht have made the perfect start to the new season with back to back wins against the Reivers and the Ospreys. Added to this the Galwaymen also won the last game of the 2005-06 season against Glasgow, with this current run representing the best winning sequence Connacht have achieved in the league since 2002/03. Llanelli Scarlets won their second match in four days at Newport last night and are going for three wins in a row in the competition for the first time since the turn of the year. The Scarlets have not won in Ireland since an 18-11 victory against Connacht at Athlone in February 2005. The Scarlets have the slight edge in previous league meetings between the two, gaining three wins to Connacht’s two with one match drawn.

Recommendation:

VC Bet, in our opinion are offering a very generous 6 points to the Scarlets. 10Pts Bet.

Spotlight on Leinster RUFC.......

The Leinster Loins

After a total disaster last season in which they failed to win a single piece of silverware, Michael Cheika’s team have to justify the complete trust and faith shown in them by their loyal band of ladyboy fans. As usual, the hype and expectation has reached Walian levels with little to no chance of it abating.

The new superstar of Leinster rugby, Luke Fitzgerald – cousin of an infamous Leinster alikadooess – has already set the ladyboy bandwagon into a frenzied overdrive. His couple of touches in the first game of the season, against themighty Edinburgh, showed that he really knows where the line is, the touch line that is. There have been a few changes to the playing personnel for this season.

Out have gone some legends – Emmett Byrne (Setanta), James Norton (Superquinn), Brian O’Meara (Munster) – and some bellends. Leinster have also recruited heavily, and I mean very heavily, in the form of Owen Finnegan. Also new to the ranks are a couple of Turnipstanis, Stephen Keogh and Trevor Hogan. We wish them well in their new country and in their endeavours to learn the language.

Being Leinster, they are expected to run riot in both The Magners League and TheHeineken Cup this year, and I for one will expect nothing less than total, and I mean complete and total loike, domination of world rugby. In fact, I expectLeinster to be chosen to represent Ireland at the Rugby World Cup next year,even though they have only 3 Irish players.

Predictions:

Magners League – Winners
Heineken Cup – Winners
Eurovision Song Contest – Winners

Ospreys 18 - 16 Cardiff Blues LET THE COWS DANCE

Recommendation: 10 pts Ospreys to win outright 8/13 @ www.sportingodds.com

Well, after what was a dire, dire, dire game we have our first winner. It has to be said we were lucky in the end but a win is a win is a win.

Report:

The Ospreys beat Cardiff Blues 18-16 at Liberty Stadium in Swansea on Wednesday night. Three tries to pone sounds comfortable but it took a last-minute try to win the dramatic match.
Nick Robinson had scored all the Blues' points and had done so in all four possible ways but it was his poor kick that opened up the way for the winning try by replacement Richie Pugh.

It was a harsh match with all the passion of a derby between neighbouring Welsh sides. There were many stoppages for injuries and when the Blues ran out of suitably trained front-row players the scrums became uncontested.

The Ospreys scored early when Shane Williams started and then scored. He threw in quickly from touch to Lee Byrne and then was on hand to get the ball back when the fullback was tackled and race over for the try on the right. There was every appearance of a knock-on which seemed to stop the Blues' defenders in the expectation of a whistle.

After Robinson had goaled a penalty he moved the Blues into the lead. Like Shane Williams he started and finished the move. He chipped diagonally, wing Mosese Luveitasau gathered and passed back to his flyhalf, and Robinson scored and converted. 10-5 to the Blues.

Justin Marshall did much to dictate the game for the Ospreys, keeping his side well inside the Blues territory. From a five-metre scrum, when the Blues' hooker Rhys Thomas was off injured, big Ryan Jones drove over for the try which levelled the scores. 10-10.

Just before half-time Robinson kicked the first of his dropped goals to make the score 13--10 to the Blues at the break.

The Ospreys had two chances for tries in the second half, the first when Shane Williams counterattacked in characteristic fashion only for Sonny Parker to knock on when a try seemed certain and the second when Williams just failed to gather the ball with a try there for the taking.

Gavin Henson, who had an off day with the boot, goaled a penalty to make the score 13-all, but, with seven minutes to play, Robinson kicked a long drop goal and seemed to have won the match for his side till Pugh caught his poor kick and scored the winner a minute from time.

Scorers:
For Ospreys:Tries: Shane Williams, Ryan Jones, Pugh. Pen: Henson
For Cardiff Blues:Try: Robinson.Con: Robinson.Pens: Robinson.Drops: Robinson 2

Meet the PR Betheads Team - Leinster Lion

Name: Leinster Lion

Location: Ireland

Supports: Leinster and Ireland

Favourite Food: Fishfingers

Favourite Drink: Milky Milky

Favourite Film: 101 Dalmations

Leinster Lion has never played rugby to a high level, is not very good at it, and his knowledge and ramblings on any rugby, and in particular the Magners League, carry no weight what so ever. All his opinions on rugby are gathered from various online forums and the excellent Newstalk106 radio station, and he reiterates them as his own. His work in IT means he only occassionally has a life outside of the internet, but thankfully those moments are rare. Leinster Lion owns a part share in a flourishing false moustache business and what with all the orders coming in from Limerick things are looking very rosey indeed. Leinster Lion once told Crash that if you get a crab drunk it would walk in a straight line. Most impressive

Ospreys v Cardiff Blues

Ospreys v Cardiff Blues Wednesday 13th September KO 7.35pm

How difficult is this one to call? Very, everyone shouted. There’s no value to be had at all on this game so I’m just going to go for the home win. The Ospreys had a sputtering home win against the Gunners and then, quite embarrassingly, lost to Connacht away in Ireland. The Osprey’s squad is jam packed full of stars and they have yet to gel, it could be tonight.

The Blues (spit) on the other hand have only played on game and were quite unconvincing against a very under strength Munster team, that Munster team only narrowly avoid a loss at home to the Borderererereres. This could be a feisty affair but we do expect the home team to win.

Form: The Ospreys lost 10-15 in Galway last Friday but at Liberty Stadium they have lost just once in 2006: 17-19 to Ulster on 26 May. The Swansea based side beat the Scarlets 25-13 at Liberty Stadium the last time they faced a fellow Welsh District to end a four game losing run against teams from Wales. Cardiff Blues had a bye week last weekend and have won their only match so far: 22-13 at home to Munster on 1 September. The Blues have lost their last two away games at Ulster and Munster but have beaten fellow Welsh Districts in five of their last six such encounters. The last four clashes between these two sides have resulted in a win for the home team on the day.

Ospreys: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Nikki Walker, 13 Sonny Parker, 12 Andrew Bishop, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Gavin Henson, 9 Justin Marshall, 8 Ryan Jones, 7 Jonathan Thomas, 6 Andy Lloyd, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Brent Cockbain, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Duncan Jones (c). Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17 Paul James, 18 Lyndon Bateman, 19 Alun Wyn Jones, 20 Richard Pugh, 21 James Hook, 22 Stefan Terblanche.

Cardiff Blues (spit): 15 Rhys Williams, 14 Chris Czekaj, 13 Tom Shanklin, 12 Marc Stcherbina, 11 Mosese Luveitasau, 10 Nick Robinson, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Xavier Rush (C), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Scott Morgan, 5 Rob Sidoli, 4 Deiniol Jones, 3 Tufaao Filise, 2 T Rhys Thomas, 1 Gethin Jenkins.Replacements: 16 Gary Powell, 17 Duane Goodfield, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Robin Sowden-Taylor, 20 Wayne Evans, 21 Nick Macleod, 22 Tom Riley.

Date: Wednesday, September 13Kick-off: 19:35 (18:35 GMT)Venue: Liberty Stadium Referee: Nigel Owens (WRU)Touch Judges: Hugh Watkins (WRU), James Jones (WRU)

Recommendation: 10 pts Ospreys to win outright 8/13 @ www.sportingodds.com

Meet the PR BetHeads Team - Crash

Name: Crash

Supports: Ireland and Leinster

Location: Ireland, surprisingly

Favourite Food: Biscuits

Favourite Drink: Skinny Mochachino Latte – with sprinkles.

Favourite Film: The Crying Game

Crash has given up his job to go gambling full time, the blackberry season was coming to an end anyway. Crash has a pathological fear of horses. He loves his girlfriend very much and they spend much of their free time rowing up and down the Liffey, they hope to represent Ireland at the next Olympics in Bejing.

Crash is a vital member of the team and can always be relied on to give just and true opinions with reference to betting on the Celtic League.

Dragons 22-23 Scarlets

So the bet lost - The -1 on the Hadicap was bang on, resulting in a draw for us.

As an aside, I am a Newport Gwent Dragons fan and I am totally gutted and exhausted by the result. God that was a painful night and since I drowned my sorrows in Guiness last night I am suffering here today at work:

Match Report:

A DEVASTATING three-try salvo in six minutes swung this rousing Magners League encounter decisively the way of the Scarlets.They were 16-3 down at half-time after sustaining a right old battering from a Dragons side breathing fire.But the Scarlets caught the Gwent region napping at the start of the second half with Darren Daniel, Gavin Evans and Ceiron Thomas all crossing.Ceri Sweeney briefly regained the lead for the Dragons with a double penalty strike before Stephen Jones hit back to move the Scarlets to second in the table behind champions Ulster.The Dragons picked up a losing bonus point to climb three places to third, but will be bitterly disappointed at letting this one slip after being so dominant before the break.It was a riveting encounter with the only disappointment being a crowd of 5,574.

Scarlets made their intentions clear from the opening scrum of the match when outside-half Jones dodged past Sweeney.They were pulled back - harshly - for an alleged forward pass but the move emphasised they were prepared to attack the channel which they had expected to be filled by former player Mike Hercus.However, Dragons coach Paul Turner had left the United States international out knowing that the Scarlets would like to expose his defensive limitations.But the debt-ridden West Wales region had made other plans - they knew Hercus wasn't playing hours before the Dragons team became public knowledge.Sweeney switched from inside centre to outside-half with youngster Ashley Smith coming in at No 12.Turner made four changes, one positional, from the side beaten 32-25 in a thriller by league champions Ulster last weekend.Wales cap Steve Jones replaced Ben Daly at hooker back from neck trouble and Joe Bearman stepped into the back row for the injured Nic Fitisemanu.Sweeney fired them into the lead with a 10th-minute penalty after the Scarlets were caught offside following a line-out.Jones levelled matters at the quarter of an hour mark, the Dragons penalised for encroaching. Home prop Adam Black had Scarlets tighthead Deacon Manu tied up in knots and the New Zealander was penalised for collapsing the scrum.Worse was to follow for the Scarlets, young lock Lou Reed being sin-binned for pulling down a ferocious driving maul from the Dragons.Sweeney just failed to punish them with a long-range penalty, but the Dragons were fired up.Scarlets coach Phil Davies had made five changes from the XV that beat Glasgow last weekend.Ceiron Thomas came in for Martyn Thomas at full-back, Matthew Watkins for Dafydd James at wing, Manu for John Davies at tight-head, Easterby for Inoke Afeaki at blindside flanker and Alix Popham for Nathan Thomas at No 8.They suffered another blow when centre Regan King went off with blood streaming from his face in the 27th minute.And the Dragons fans went wild with joy following a stunning strike two minutes later.Acting captain Colin Charvishad a major part in it.He made the initial incursion before throwing a super pass to Sweeney. The Dragons orchestrator found Nathan Brew with a cut-out pass and the centre sprinted 25m before stretching for the touchdown when challenged. Sweeney converted from wide out and they were 10-3 up.Phil Davies showed his ruthless side by hauling suspect scrummager Manu off in the 37th minute, sending veteran John Davies on to shore it up.Sweeney landed a monster penalty and they led by 10 points.

The ferocity of their tackling had the crowd wincing with Aled Brew's big hit being followed by a pile-driving effort from flanker Jamie Ringer on Watkins a couple of seconds later.They went off to a tremendous ovation as Sweeney extended their lead to 16-3 on the stroke of half-time with a wonderful long-range drop-goal that literally brought the house down.Turner's men, with its pack, Sweeney, rookie scrum-half Alex Walker and the Brew brothers at the forefront of an intense effort were good value.Scarlets were reeling and in desperate need of regrouping. Catalysts Dwayne Peel and Jones were being hunted down by a rampant Dragons pack and had no space or time to operate.Turner had identified Peel and Jones as key men and the plan he concocted to contain them had been carried out to perfection before the break.

The half-time pep talk from Phil Davies saw the Scarlets explode out of the blocks.Jones was heavily involved in the build-up that led to the league's top scorer Daniel increasing his tally to five.Then their searing pace saw them score from 80m following a turnover. Full-back Ceiron Thomas showed great pace to escape and King managed to get his pass away to scorer Gavin Evans as Craig Warlow clung on.Their next came after King beat off an attempted tackle by Gareth Wyatt in midfield. He had men to spare outside him and Thomas had a simple run-in. Jones, though, only managed to convert one of them.The shell-shocked Dragons trailed by four points after an amazing turn-around.Sweeney reduced the arrears to a point with a penalty, his third, in the 52nd minute but was wide with a not-too-difficult chance to put them back into the lead three minutes later.Dragons team manager Jim McCreedy was angered after Ringer sustained a nasty wound to his nose, being ordered to his technical box by the fourth official and claret was splashed on the forehead of Iestyn Thomas as the Scarlets prop became the third player off for repairs.Sweeney regained the lead for the Gwent region in the 65th minute after Charvis was taken out off the ball but Jones replied a minute later.Dragons surprisingly put a kickable penalty into the corner rather than go for goal, but the Scarlets cleared.

Tuesday Afternoon Update:

As we've found over the last couple of games and indeed, last season, the odds normally end up changing slightly the nearer we get towards KO. Value is always to be had first thing in the morning.

You can now get 7/5 on the Dragons outright with ExtraBet.com

You can also get the Dragons with a +7 Handicap again @ Extrabet.com

Totesport.com are also offering a generous 8/11 Outright on the Scarlets which I think is a fantastic price, all things considered.

Check for yourself at: http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/o/card/rugbyunion-celticleagueandcup/odds/2799299x/sid/1012908

Newport Gwent Dragons v Llanelli Scarlets

Dragons v Scarlets - Tuesday 12th September 2006 K.O 7.10 pm

Well - We are liking the look of Scarlets @ -1 on Sporting Odds 5/6.

Paul Turner doesn't seem to confident and we've got more academy lads playing for us again tonight - which does bode well for the future but thats a strong Scarlets team we've got to front up to.The Scarlets have also had an extra rest day and our match against Ulster was proper end to end stuff and as Paul Turner say's, it's a big ask to perform like that again.We've lost our last 4 games to the West and I can't see it being much different tonight.

Newport Gwent Dragons face their second home Magners League clash in three days when Llanelli Scarlets visit Rodney Parade on Tuesday, kick off 7.10pm.The Dragons have made three changes to the team that narrowly lost on Saturday to current champions Ulster for Tuesday's derby clash with academy member Ashley Smith coming in at inside centre with Ceri Sweeney replacing Mike Hercus at fly half. Hooker Steve Jones has recovered from his neck injury to make the starting XV while flanker Joe Bearman comes in at blindside flanker replacing the injured Nic Fitisemanu. Colin Charvis keeps the captain's armband and plays at No.8.Head Coach Paul Turner keeps his policy of bringing through the academy members with Alex Walker and Ashley Smith both starting. Academy member Lewis Evans is named on the replacements bench.(You mean Paul has no choice)Ashley Smith makes his first full competitive start for the region on Tuesday, he was a replacement in The Dragons Powergen Cup clash against Worcester last year and started for The Dragons in their pre season warm up game against the Cornish Pirates but had to leave the field 12 minutes into the game after suffering a bang to the head. "I am looking forward to making my first start for the team especially as it is a match against another Welsh region," commented Ashley. "I have experienced players around me in Nathan Brew and Ceri Sweeney so I will get lots of advice during the game which will make it easier. To have top quality players around me is fantastic but I will look to grasp the opportunity with both hands and aim to hang onto The Dragons jersey. The game against the Scarlets will be tough but I am relishing making my first start for The Dragons region. Hopefully we will have the same atmosphere as Saturday night and entertain the crowd and give the home support something to cheer about."USA International Paul Emerick is named for the first time on the replacements bench having recovered from a hamstring injury."The crowd were magnificent on Saturday," commented Head Coach Paul Turner. "I could hear them all round the ground. It's now up to us to repay them. There's a great match in store for supporters on Tuesday with the East v West derby game. They are always tremendous clashes on-field. It is a big ask to play another highly competitive game on Tuesday especially as Saturday's game was played at a furious pace and was real end-to-end stuff. But we owe the Scarlets one after they completed the double over us last year. They will bring a different challenge to that of Ulster, they have a typical Welsh all round game, are smart and organised up front, have two world class half backs and any number of flair back line players. It is a big ask for the squad but one game we are all up for."Looking ahead to Tuesday night's clash lock Ian Gough commented, "We are buoyed by our performance against reigning league champions Ulster but we have to win our home games if we are to make an impact in the Magners League. The game against the Scarlets is a tough game with international half backs Dwyane Peel and Stephen Jones a force to be reckoned with and it will take a massive effort from the whole team if we are to get a result. It is a quick turnaround for us from the Ulster game but with no Magners League game next weekend it is all or nothing for us. It will take a big effort from us to get a result but one we are all prepared to give with 10 days off after the game. Having home advantage for this match is a big plus and we have to make the most of that especially as it is a big Welsh derby clash. The support was good on Saturday night and the supporters were completely behind us and positive which gave us a big lift and we hope the crowd will again get behind us and make life difficult for the opposition

Dragons Team: Craig Warlow, Gareth Wyatt, Nathan Brew, Ashley Smith, Aled Brew, Ceri Sweeney, Alex Walker, Adam Black/David Maddocks, Steve Jones, Rhys Thomas, Ian Gough, Peter Sidoli, Joe Bearman, Jamie Ringer, Colin Charvis (c)ReplacementsBen Daly, Lee Harrison, Bryn Griffiths, Lewis Evans, Aled Thomas, Paul Emerick, Gareth Baber

Form: The Dragons' only win in their last four league games was 24-23 at Glasgow Warriors two rounds ago in their opening fixture this season. The Dragons are on an unprecedented run of three straight losses in all competitions at Rodney Parade. The Dragons have won just one of their last nine clashes against fellow Welsh Districts: 24-14 against the Ospreys at Newport on New Year's Day. Llanelli Scarlets recorded their first win of the new campaign with a 31-17 victory over Glasgow Warriors at Stradey Park last Friday. The Scarlets have not won away from home since the last time they visited Rodney Parade on 23 December 2005, on that occasion beating the Dragons 28-16. The Scarlets have won the last four matches in all competitions they have played against the Dragons

Recommendation: 10pts on Scarlets -1 on the Handicap @ SportingOdds.com