Profit Making Opportunity?

A Wales V New Zealand World Cup Final?

A quick look at Rugby World Cup 2007 reveals the top of half of the draw is likely to throw up quarter-finalists in the form of South Africa, England (pool A), Wales and Australia (pool B). For reasons I'll come to shortly, you could happily back Wales to advance to the semi-finals whether we meet England or South Africa, with a rebound semi-final against fellow pool B member Australia. On the bottom half of the draw, New Zealand and either Scotland or Italy will advance from pool C, while France, Ireland and Argentina will be fighting to advance from pool D. So, let's extrapolate on what we know so far: Wales can beat England or South Africa because these two sides are quite weak. England, arein disarray, while South Africa – those most notorious travellers – oscillate between terrible and admirable. On the other hand, Wales – after the blood-letting of the player revolt that ousted Mike Ruddock as coach, is on the up.

Gareth Jenkins has revitalised Wales and of all the teams chasing the All Blacks, it's the Welsh who most resemble the New Zealanders in terms of depth. After the 29-29 draw with Australia, Jenkins made 14 changes for an easy win over the Pacific Islanders. We all know the importance of depth, given how much Henry has foisted that mantra on the New Zealand rugby public over the past two years. On that score, Wales are ahead of an Australia outfit that could yet go downhill through lack of adequate back-up to its leading 10 or 12 players. The scrum is still weak and John Connolly's experimental backlines have yet to deliver results. If Connolly persists with Mat Rogers at first-five, Australia cannot possibly win the cup and shouldn't go past the semi-finals.

Rogers, one of the most overrated players on the international scene, is too erratic. Not even Stephen Larkham's skills outside can make up his shortcomings. So, it's Wales, with the choice of two brilliant first-fives in captain Stephen Jones and newcomer James Hook, to reach the final. Assuming France recovers from the humiliation of Lyons and return to its place at the top of European rugby, it should finish on top of pool D and avoid the All Blacks in the quarter-final.

Wales are 25-1 with Paddy Power at the moment and will only get shorter as we near the Tournament. Another factor to add in is that Wales are playing the Aussies at home at the Millenium stadium and this really could help Wales win their group and get an easy(ish) quarter final. There will be no over-whelming favourites in the Quarters (barring NZ of course) and I’m convinced there will be money to be made by laying Wales with the 25-1 still in the sky rocket.