Betting on Ice - The Magners Celtic League Betting Blog

European Challenge Cup....

2007-01-26T05:59:00.000-08:00

I posted this last year....looking good.

Dragons to Win the European Challenge Cup 20-1Dragons have Bayonne, Bristol and Bucharesti in their group. Bristol really won't be interested in this fixture what with their continuing success at the top of the Guiness Premiership...Bayonne are struggling for survival in France and I'd be vastly impressed if they send nothing but reserve teams out and I feel they will be paying lip service to the tournament. Bucharest are left and are not to be underestimate but should still finish bottom of the pile.I really think Dragons could top their group giving them a home tie in the Quarters. If we backed the Dragons with £25.00 that would give us £480.00 to play with to make us a profit. If they don't win the group I'm quite sure they could qualify as one of the best second place teams.
posted by PRBetHeads 5:11 AM 0 comments

Dragons are playing Brive at HOME in the quarter finals.

Dragons v Borders - Friday 26th Jan - KO 7.30PM

2007-01-26T02:35:00.000-08:00

Hello folks, it's been a while

At first glance this looks like a gimme.

The Dragons - High flying European Challenge Quarter Finalists….recent victors over top of the GP, Bristol and European champions, Munster……. facing the lowly Borders, dead bottom of the Magners League. This is far from a gimme.

Cussiter makes a remarkable recovery after only nine weeks and returns to try and make a last ditch effort to make the Scotland squad and the ever dependable McCrae is in at full-back. Scotland Sevens captain Scott Forrest will be making his first start for the Borders Gregor Townsend will also feature for the Borders tonight in what looks like a decent team – more than capable of a hijack tonight in Gwent.

Dragons have lost…Morgan, Charvis , Cooper and Goughy to the Welsh squad – all massive presences for the team. Brewy is also out with his ankle. It promises to be a very cold night in Gwent with an un-selected Micheal Owen leading the side. This is a very understrength team with only Sid, Emerick, Ringer, Luke, being regular first XV’ers. Aled Thomas is starting for the first time this season and Alex Walker will be his scrum-half partner – players to look out for in the future.

I think the bookies have this wrong and will be awful lot closer than people realise. Borders could even nick it.

Form: Newport Gwent Dragons beat Bayonne 32-15 in France on Friday to secure a home quarter-final against Brive in the European Challenge Cup. The Dragons have won six of their last seven encounters in all competitions, and have not been beaten at Rodney Parade since the Scarlets were the visitors on September 12. Border Reivers have lost their last ten matches in all competitions since the Reivers beat Parma 35-3 at Netherdale on October 20. They have not won outside Scotland since a 32-25 victory in L'Aquila in October 2005. Border Reivers have won just one of the seven previous matches they have played against the Dragons: 43-5 at Netherdale in May 2006.

Dragons: 15 Gareth Wyatt, 14 Gareth Chapman, 13 Paul Emerick, 12 Ashley Smith, 11 Aled Brew, 10 Aled Thomas, 9 Alex Walker, 8 Nic Fitisemanu, 7 Jamie Ringer, 6 Michael Owen (c), 5 Peter Sidoli, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Jamie Corsi, 2 Ben Daly, 1 Adam Black Replacements: 16 Richard Wilkes, 17 Gethin Robinson, 18 Andrew Hall, 19 James Harris, 20 Richard Fussell, 21 Phil Dolman, 22 Gareth Baber

Borders: 15 Calum MacRae, 14 Simon Danielli, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Ben MacDougall, 11 Garry Law, 10 Gregor Townsen, 9 Chris Cusiter (c), 8 Scott Forrest, 7 Scott Newlands, 5 Opeta Palepoi, 4 John Dalziel, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Ryan Grant Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Ed Kalman, 18 Richie Vernon, 19 Roddy Grant, 20 Rob Chrystie, 21 Steve Jones, 22 Dougie Flockhart

Recommendation – Borders + 13 with Stan James

HEC Cup Weekend

2007-01-13T03:36:00.000-08:00

No out and out picks for me on this HEC weekend. Personally I'm just having the double of Ulster and Wasps outright. Should do the job. Pays around even money.

I'm sure theres value around somewhere but I'm just to hungover after our heroic victory against GP Leaders Bristol last night.

Profile on Ulster Rugby....

2007-01-10T00:36:00.000-08:00

Ulster - Land of the free, home of the brave.....

Like the pioneers from these shores that pushed back the frontiers in the New World, ulster hold a special place in irish rugby, the first team to conquer Europe, beating all comers and landing the ERC in a tumultuous occasion in front of 50,000 at Lansdowne in '99.

That the Province haven't challenged for European honours since that day is a source of great amusement for the Mexicans, and has become a millstone round the necks of successive coaches and players since. 'maybe next year' has become an important part of the ulster supporter's xmas greetings.

However, Ravenhill has become our Alamo, defended tooth and nail against all comers, with the great and the good being sent homewards with their tails between their legs, and the sound of the bearpit, fuelled by proper british Guinness, ringing in their ears. Inflatable sheep and f**king spides beware the wrath of the promenade hoards! indeed so great is the atmosphere in ulster's east Belfast heartland, the ulster team struggle to win away from home, especially in England, their crowds are too tame and ulster's players feel self conscious in these silent conditions.

At last however we've started to compete with our more glamourous neighbours from the pale, and their cousins from turnipstan, and the youth policy has seen some notable sons of ulster rise to the national ranks, led onwards by Neil 'Bestie' Best, as famous for his footwork as his fellow east Belfast namesake, arnie trimble and ireland's future world cup winning front row, bryan bear-young and the best brothers.

The development of young players has been remarkable, and the core of the pack, built around the central plank in the second row are young Ulstermen, with Stephen ferris being a star of the future. While leinster seem to focus on girly mincers with soft hands and dyed hair, ulster are turning out dirty nasty forwards who live on the wrong side of the ref for most of the game.

While the sweaties wring their hands and cry about it, ulster push on, and coupled with the ability to win on the road in wales, and a relative lack of international call ups, they've bagged the magners league in 2006 and look well set to regain their crown. Only the obvious leinster bias of referees can stop them now.

With talismanic figure Humphreys on the wane, his heir apparent, both with ulster and Ireland, paddy Wallace, this reporters least favourite player, has risen to the challenge and has started dishing out his own brand of entertainment. Gone are the comedy hairstyles and the showboating, replaced with rock solid defence and a knife through butter style attack, Ulster's immediate future rests on his shoulders.

Contributed by Mr B Fatfingers.

Summary Time

2007-01-09T05:35:00.000-08:00

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster – Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow – Lose
Glasgow v Border – Win
Connacht v Ulster – Win
Borders v Leinster – Lose
Ulster v Blues – Win
Ospreys v Glasgow – Win
Dragons v Edinburgh – Lose
Edinburgh v Borders – Win
Munster v Connacht – Win
Bristol v Dragons Lost
Castres v Treviso Win
Calvisano v Stade Francais Lost
Borders v Overmach Parma Win
Leicester v Munster Lost
Ulster v Toulouse Win
Bourgoin v Cardiff Win
Biarritz v Northampton Lost
London Irish v Scarlets Win
Agen v Edinburgh Win
Dragons v Bucharest Win
Calvisano v Ospreys Win
Glasgow v Narbonne Win
Conn/Edinburgh Double – Win
Glasgow/Ulster Double – Win
Leinster/Munster/Ospreys Treble – Lose
France v NZ – Win
Italy v Australia – Win
Wales v Pacific Islands – Win
France v New Zealand – Win
Scotland v Pacific Islands - Lost
Dragons v Munster - Win

Winning Strike Rate.....71.05%

First You Get The Money - Then You Get The Power...

2007-01-09T03:39:00.000-08:00

Arbitrage Betting….

In a nutshell an “Arb” occurs when bookermakers make a mistake. Shown below is a real Arb that occurred on 1st January 2007.

Football Conference North: Lancaster v Barrow

Home Win 4.00 Skybet

Draw 3.40 Skybet

Away Win 2.40 Bet&Win

For every £100.00 you would have bet on this match you would have received a guaranteed 4.08% return. This one bet won’t make you rich of course bet if you take out the subscription then you could make yourself some holiday money or some stake money with no risk at all.

The last Arb I took was teeny weeny but free money is free money:

ODI NZ v Sri Lanka 30th December 2006

Home Win 2.75 Victor Chandler

Away Win 1.62 Ladbrokes

I made around £40.00 on this bet. Seriously, it’s free and it’s fun. I also get a kick out of taking free money off the bookies but heck that’s just me! Folks, this isn’t a con trick or anything subversive, click on the link and have a butchers for yourself. Good luck.

http://www.ucantlose.co.uk/html/members.html?a_aid=d6d639e3

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2007-01-08T04:14:00.000-08:00

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Daily Freerolls worth $250.00

I play a lot of the Jackpot Sit and Goes – If you win four $2.00 Tournaments on the trot you win the jackpot of $2000.00

You really can’t say fairer than that. For the $50.00 please Email me on: gwentdave@hotmail.com

If you want to get started straight away then click on http://banner.cdpoker.com/cgi-bin/SetupPoker.exe?member=DACSTER

Larham Out of Rugby World Cup

2007-01-08T03:39:00.000-08:00

Chris Larham is out of the Australian Rugby World Cup Squad – and with it any chance of them doing well. This bodes very well for Wales as they now may be able to overcome the Aussies at home in the Millenium Stadium next year to top the group, more importantly avoiding NZ in the Quarter Finals.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,21026616-23217,00.h tml

You can currently get 50/1 (Betfair) on Wales winning the World Cup…I really don’t think they will but that is certainly big enough odds to lay them off once they hit the Quarter Finals.
Just for the record, I’m going to take £20.00 worth and have some fun with it come September 07.

Dragons 19 - 12 Munster.

2007-01-08T02:05:00.000-08:00

What a game. Gypsies, there were coming straight for me. I knew a woman once, took her to see India. At the Oval. I was very, very, very drunk.

Newsflash:

2007-01-05T09:04:00.000-08:00

Leamy & Murphy Out of Munster Side 5 January 2007, 2:24 pm
By Pat Geraghty

A bout of illness has forced Barry Murphy and Denis Leamy to withdraw from the Munster side for the game this evening against Newport-Gwent Dragons at Rodney Parade (7.10). Trevor Halstead comes up from the bench to his usual number 12 slot with Lifeimi Mafi moving to outside centre while Chris Wyatt is drafted straight into the side. The Welshman will operate at blindside wing forward and John O'Sullivan at open. Mossy Lawlor comes onto the replacement bench.MUNSTER: C Cullen; A Horgan, L Mafi, T Halstead, I Dowling; J Manning, T Ó'Leary; M Horan, A Kyraicou, T Buckley; D Ryan, M O'Driscoll; C Wyatt, J O'Sullivan, A Foley. Replacements: F Pucciariello, E McGovern, P O'Connell, J Coughlan, B O'Meara, E Hickie, M Lawlor.

Sorry if you didn't realise but I was taking the piss on the post below. The Dragons team is as good as it gets for us at the moment but we still have a very decent smattering of internationals taking the field. An already resting/injured Munster Squad has further been depleted by the news above. The minus 4 on the Dragons, IMO, is the result of the bookies paying Munster too much respect and the Dragons not nearly enough.

Dragons v Munster Friday 6th January 07

2007-01-05T07:14:00.000-08:00

Above: Cork Lesiure Centre

At around 7 O’clock this evening the people of Limerick and Cork will down Turnips and check the neighbourhood watch (everyone gets to wear it for 15 minutes each), the air will be full of the sound of tractors being parked up and the kids will be running home after disentangling themselves from abandoned combine harvesters eagerly awaiting the utter thrashing their heroes in dark pink will be giving to the poor upstarts from the Welsh Rivera, Newport.

The Dark Pinks are sending across what can only be described as a first rate squad, the team are so confident they are taking a raffle on who will score the fifth try, their only worry is if the big metal whirligig at Cork Airport can actually stay in the air for a whole hour.

Newport Gwent Dragons on the other hand are putting out a team of Academy players coupled with a few seasoned professionals; Colin Charvis (58) and Ian Gough (42) and their only job will be to try and stop the academy kids from throwing their scrum caps into the crowd and hoying themselves into the Mighty River Usk. The good news for the Dragons is that “Billy Smart” aka “Krusty” aka “The Circus” Mike Hercus is still so fecking shocking that he’s still on the bench despite some 15 year old children making their debuts for the Dragons tonight.

Recommendation: Dragons –4 at Skybet.

Blues v Ospreys

2006-12-23T07:53:00.000-08:00

I like the look of the Sprays tonight at Evens. Sprays are a better outfit and play a wee bit better away from the souless Liberty Stadium. I am far too hungover to do any kind of write up.

Scarlets v Dragons Fri 22nd KO 7.40

2006-12-22T02:19:00.000-08:00

Should Be More Like 20

Here I am, sat at my desk waiting for the day to finish. I’m getting picked up at 5 and then diving through the traffic to deepest darkest West Wales to watch the Dragons take on the Scarlets. You know what? I don’t want to fecken well go, as I know we are going to be properly turned over.

Dragons Coach, Paul Turner is putting out a very strong side, probably the strongest for a while:

Kevin Morgan (c), Nathan Brew, Paul Emerick, Ashley Smith, Aled Brew, Ceri Sweeney, Gareth Cooper, Adam Black, Ben Daly, Lee Harrison, Ian Gough, Luke Charteris, Colin Charvis, Jamie Ringer, Michael Owen

….but in truth I wish he were saving some of the side for the more important Blues game on the 27th but you can’t have everything.

Big round of applause to the Scarlets for their performance last week in Toulouse, outstanding….sadly I nipped out to pub for a swift half when then were 34-10 down so I never got to see the fight back. It’s amazing what you can with £9,000,000 eh Scarlets??? Not that I’m bitter or anything.

The Scarlets are also putting out a good team, Popham is the only notable exception but he’s on the bench:

15 Barry Davies, 14 Darren Daniel, 13 Regan King, 12 Matthew Watkins, 11 Mark Jones, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Dwayne Peel (c), 8 Nathan Thomas, 7 Gavin Thomas, 6 Inoke Afeaki, 5 Scott MacLeod, 4 Adam Jones, 3 Craig Dunlea, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Iestyn Thomas.

Two notable things to take into consideration here. It’s Black Friday in Wales, basically that means the whole country is going on the razz after work and there’s going to be a near sell out and a very boisterous crowd at Stradey. The other thing is that, and it pains me to say it, I really don’t think this Dragons team have enough fight in them. It’s my belief that a few players don’t actually want to play for the Region and wish they were somewhere else, I won’t name names.

Form: Llanelli Scarlets achieved a notable double home and away over Toulouse in the European Cup in the past two weeks, and have now won six of their last seven encounters in all competitions. At home the Scarlets have lost just once in 20 games: 42-49 to Toulouse in January 2006. Newport Gwent Dragons won their most recent match in the Magners League: 17-10 at home to Edinburgh on 10 November but have not managed back-to-back wins in the league since January. The Dragons have won just one of their last ten tussles against fellow Welsh Regions. The Scarlets have won the last five games against the Dragons in league and cup, whilst the Newport based side are yet to win at Stradey as a Region.

Recommendation: Scarlets –12 @ Sporting Odds.

Wales - Vastly Overated.....

2006-12-21T02:26:00.000-08:00

Let me just start by saying that I am in fact Welsh.

Just not good enough I’m afraid. To frail in defence and to light up front. Great ball handling skills but in the modern game it isn’t enough to win games for you.

Wales 62-28 Canada

Canada are a 2nd tier nation with only a handful of players playing top flight rugby in Europe (French and English 2nd Tier) and god knows what the Canadian domestic league is like, no offence intended. This game was almost a squad decider for the upcoming Kiwi game, everyone should have been playing for their place……how the hell did they concede 28 points against this lot?

Wales 38 – 20 Pacifica

The Islanders had been together for a full four days before taking on Wales at the Millennium stadium – thank god they threw us two completely mad interception passes and didn’t decide to start playing until the 60th minute. Scotland and Ireland humped the Islanders later on in their tour.

Wales 10 – 47 New Zealand

Enough said.

Wales could be in serious trouble come the end of the 6 Nations – defeats are more than possible in the Ireland, France and England games not to mention the Italian and Scotland fixtures…..despite the talent in the backs there is nothing up front and whilst I know a few of the lads really do try their hearts out they are let down by the fact we don’t have a world class or even international class front 5.

Gareth Jenkins - Got the job because the WRU felt sorry for him, because he's from Llanelli, and because no foreigner in his right mind would coach Wales. "The best coach in Wales" doesn't really mean anything when your competition is along the lines of Lyn Jones and Dai Young

From a betting perspective – Wales look overpriced at 20/1 for the Wooden Spoon at Paddy Power and you should be able to still lay that off for profit.

End of Year Betting Summary......

2006-12-15T06:19:00.000-08:00

Happy Christmas Everyone!

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster – Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow – Lose
Glasgow v Border – Win
Connacht v Ulster – Win
Borders v Leinster – Lose
Ulster v Blues – Win
Ospreys v Glasgow – Win
Dragons v Edinburgh – Lose
Edinburgh v Borders – Win
Munster v Connacht – Win
Bristol v Dragons Lost
Castres v Treviso Win
Calvisano v Stade Francais Lost
Borders v Overmach Parma Win
Leicester v Munster Lost
Ulster v Toulouse Win
Bourgoin v Cardiff Win
Biarritz v Northampton Lost
London Irish v Scarlets Win
Agen v Edinburgh Win
Dragons v Bucharest Win
Calvisano v Ospreys Win
Glasgow v Narbonne Win
Conn/Edinburgh Double – Win
Glasgow/Ulster Double – Win
Leinster/Munster/Ospreys Treble – Lose
France v NZ – Win
Italy v Australia – Win
Wales v Pacific Islands – Win
France v New Zealand – Win
Scotland v Pacific Islands - Lost

That give us a winning percentage of 70.27% (not including tonights bets)

Friday Night Action

2006-12-15T05:17:00.000-08:00

Well what can I say? I could do a write up on the Ospreys v Calvisano game but it would be a waste of time. The Ospreys are putting out a good side - Calvisano aren't. For those that saw the Ospreys game, Calvisano were given 3 tries on a plate - a massive shiney golden plate - I certainly don't think that will happen again.

Ospreys: L Byrne; N Walker, A Bishop, J Hook, S Williams; G Henson, J Marshall; D Jones (capt), H Bennett, A Jones, A Jones, I Evans, J Thomas, S Tandy, R Jones.Replacements: B Williams, C Griffiths, B Cockbain, A Lloyd, M Roberts, S Connor, J Vaughton.

It's raining in Swansea and I can understand why people may be afraid of the large Cap on this game.

Recommendation: Ospreys -40 @ Paddy Power

And: Winning Margin Bets with Ladbrokes 36-40 @ 6-1 and 31-35 @ 8-1

I know this is hardly exciting but it covers the cap draw and will produce a profit and at the end of the day thats what we are here for.

The Cheeky Gits!!!!!

2006-12-15T02:57:00.000-08:00

Skybet have suspended the betting of the Bristol v Bayonne game. Hope you got on.

Bristol v Bayonne Friday 14 Dec - KO 7.30

2006-12-14T09:21:00.000-08:00

Here’s a gimme. If Bristol don’t beat the –37 points Cap against Bayonne then I’ll go to the foot of our stairs. Bayonnne have lost in Bucharest and got humped against the Dragons by 50 points. I was at the Dragons game and they literally got into our 22 once during the entire game…they were truly dire and that was against our Academy side. Granted Bristol may rest a few players but in order to beat the Dragons to the top of the group they need a bonus point to keep pace. They will get the BP easily and will want to repay a loyal and numerous crowd at the Memorial with a high scoring display.

Just a quick note from Hill after the Bayonne game last week:

“At Bayonne we had gale force winds and driving rain – the referee had to keep stopping the match because the advertising hoardings were being blown onto the pitch – and, as we were playing into the wind in the first half, we simply could not kick the ball.
“That meant keeping the ball in hand and our ball retention and phase play was excellent, resulting in us scoring three very good tries and that was effectively the job done by half-time before we had the gale on our backs. Now we are focusing on the return leg.”

Bayonne are basically using the same 22 as last week – honestly folks – a gimme. In fact it could get embarrassing for the French

Recommendation: Bristol –37 @ Skybet*

A Productive Weekend

2006-12-11T01:19:00.000-08:00

Good weekend all round really with 3 from 3, hope some of you got on.

European Betting Sumamry

Bristol v Dragons Lost
Castres v Treviso Win
Calvisano v Stade Francais Lost
Borders v Overmach Parma Win
Leicester v Munster Lost
Ulster v Toulouse Win
Bourgoin v Cardiff Win
Biarritz v Northampton Lost
London Irish v Scarlets Win
Agen v Edinburgh Win
Dragons v Bucharest Win
Calvisano v Ospreys Win
Glasgow v Narbonne Win

Now....As You Know - I'm Not a Gambling Kinda Guy.....

2006-12-08T06:15:00.000-08:00

......but if I were, I’d being going on these games this weekend

Calvisano v Ospreys

Calvisano have shipped over 100 points in their last two games in the HEC and the Opsreys are heading over to Italy with a view to a must-win bonus points victory if they are to be kept in the mix for qualification. –20 points is just a touch to low for a fully fit and rested Ospreys outfit.

Glasgow v Narbonne

Readers will know that I’ve been watching Glasgow for a few months now and I think they are primed to really shove it to this Narbonne team – You can’t really read to much into the 70 point stuffing Glasgow gave Parma in the last round apart from the fact Narbonne scrapped to a 3 point victory in Italy against the same team…..I think the French have now realised they are out of the comp and may send a team of kids over to Glasgow. The victory for Glasgow is imperative tonight. A shoe in at Glasgow –8 at Skybet.

Dragons v Bucharesti - Fri 8th KO 7.30

2006-12-08T04:28:00.000-08:00

Dragons v Bucharesti

Dai, you’re an idiot, a complete head the ball, what are you doing betting on the Dragons again?

Look, I just can’t help myself. We are putting out our strongest possible team tonight and I just can’t see how we are not going to beat the might of Bucharesti by more than 50 points. Ok, so Bucharesti beat an Under 11 Reserve Bayonne XV and they ran a Bristol 2nd Team reasonably close in the Romanian capital which I can only applaud….but this is Rodney Parade.

This my friends is a decent team:

Dragons: Kevin Morgan (c), Gareth Wyatt, Nathan Brew, Ashley Smith, Aled Brew, Ceri Sweeney, Gareth Cooper, Adam Black, Ben Daly, Lee Harrison, Ian Gough, Luke Charteris, Andrew Hall, Jamie Ringer, Colin Charvis

Replacements:Kieran Crawford, Jamie Corsi, Michael Owen, Nic Fitisemanu, Alex Walker, Mike Hercus, Richard Fussell.

The vast majority of the side are rested as it was the Academy lads who played against Worcester in the EDF Cup last weekend. We are a physical side, very physical and whilst I’m sure Bucharesti will be up for this in their own way I can see them being beaten up by just not being used to the intensity and when they start to reel in the second half we have the players in Morgan, The Brews Brothers and Ceri Sweeney who can certainly carve out numerous scoring opportunities….Nic Fitsi will scare the life out of them when he appears in the second half.

I know a lot of you don’t like betting on big caps and I do understand the reasoning behind this but this, in my opinion, is a gimme. We are a good side and we punished a Bayonne side by 50, again with just our Academy lads. Just for the record – Gloucester beat Bucharesti by 106 points last year. Also…..”Billy Smart” – Mike Hercus the Circus isn’t starting fur us and thats worth at least 14 points.

Recommendation: Dragons –50 at Blue Square. All other books are operating around the –60 mark so I’m seeing it as a bonus 10 points for us.

No Such Thing as Form?

2006-12-05T06:25:00.000-08:00

Northern Ireland 1 - 0 England

Form Does NOT exist.

I am occasionally aware that my attitudes to life are not the same as everyone else's. The time I supported the siting of a McDonalds in a middle-class area, for instance. Or the time I asked Frank McAvennie for his autograph. (Does it make it better or worse that I was 14 years old?) Yet there are few things that leave me as isolated as my view about form in football. Form, you see, is the staple of football commentary. They discuss team form and player form all day on talkSPORT. It features in every match report in every paper. Punters in every part of the country are, as you read this piece, drawing circles around ties where the odds look good, because the punter, you see, knows a thing or two about the form of the full back.

... And here's my view, the Fink Tank view, form does not exist!. There have been various studies in America about the so-called "hot hand" in competitive sport. It's a phrase that is used to describe basketball players who are doing well in a game. The fans plead for the ball to be passed to a player who is scoring points, the man with the hot hand. The academics say hot hand is a figment of the imagination.

The only US sport where there appears to be any evidence for any sort of "hot hand" is ten-pin bowling. Here, players can very, very briefly be on a roll. So what about football? Fink Tank has been conducting one of its periodic investigations into the question of form, using different methods to previous occasions. Dr Matthew Atkinson and Dr Henry Stott began by dividing every Premiership result for the past six years into hits and misses. Hits are games where a side wins and misses are those where they draw or lose. Every team can now be ascribed an average hit rate for the past six years. Chelsea's is the best with a 66.9 per cent hit rate they edge out Arsenal, on 62.3 per cent, and Manchester United, on 61.15 per cent. Sunderlands 9.68 per cent rate is comfortably the worst. These hit rates tell you how likely it is that a given streak of hits will occur. The higher the hit rate the longer the streaks you might expect to see in the normal course of things. A team who win 50 per cent of the time are quite likely to win in clumps of, say, three, but if they start winning eight on the trot it is time to sit up and take notice.

We then started looking for streaks of hits and misses to see whether any were sufficiently long that, using the strictest possible statistical test, we would judge remarkable. And heres the thing; we did find some. Thirteen in all, including two streaks of Liverpool hits and one streak of misses making them the streakiest side. So have we been wrong? Is this evidence that form exists after all? We worked up a new test. We divided each teams results into four categories: prior win and current win; prior win and current non-win; prior non-win and current win; prior non-win and current non-win. Then we applied something called the Chi Square analysis. Not a single team won a significantly greater proportion of games after wins than after non-wins. There is no hot-hand effect at all. Winning one or more games does not change your chance of winning the next one. So how to explain those few surprising streaks over the past six years? Not by form, but by lumpiness of easy and difficult fixtures. Form does not exist. It just doesn't. Now off you go to the pub and try telling them that before the match. I wish you luck.

Don't Have time to Do A Write Up....

2006-12-03T03:57:00.000-08:00

But I really fancy Connacht with a 17 point start at Munster today.

Betting Summary

2006-12-03T03:43:00.000-08:00

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster - Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow - Lose
Glasgow v Border - Win
Connacht v Ulster - Win
Borders v Leinster - Lose
Ulster v Blues - Win
Ospreys v Glasgow - Win
Dragons v Edinburgh - Lose
Edinburgh v Borders - Win

Selections: 14 Winners: 10 Winning Percentage: 71.42%

Edinburgh v Borders - Fri 1st Dec KO 7.30pm

2006-12-01T04:49:00.000-08:00

Edinburgh v Borders

I’ve hummed and harred about this game a lot……First look at the Caps lead me to believe it was a gimme for the Burghers, then I realised that the Borders pack have been reunited and do play well as a unit, then I’ve tried to factor in the loss of Border’s captain, Chris Cussiter but decided that Calum McCrae is more than a good enough replacement, to make matters worse I then found out Edinburgh had made 3 brand new decent signings to the squad and all should play a part in tonight’s game…..this lead me to drink a bottle of Port last night. I still feel remarkably sick come Friday lunchtime. Ah well.

Edinburgh need to get back on track after their defeat against the Dragons a couple of weeks ago and as an eye witness the defensive display was quite impressive in terrible conditions. I think they know the importance of this game and that a bonus point win really is their target. If Edinburgh do give away silly penalties then McCrae is more than capable of kicking them from anywhere, I expect Borders to start well tonight and then get ground down.

Form: Edinburgh have lost back to back Magners League matches to Cardiff Blues and Newport Gwent Dragons, however the capital side have never lost at home to a fellow Scottish side in the history of the league. Border Reivers have lost their last three games in all competitions and have won just once on the road in the league since September 2005: 20-8 at Glasgow on 3 March. The two sides have clashed on six previous occasions in the league with each match being won by the home side on the day. The Reivers have lost on both of their previous visits to Murrayfield

Edinburgh: 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Chris Paterson (c), 13 Marcus Di Rollo, 12 Andrew Easson, 11 Ben Cairns, 10 Phil Godman, 9 Mike Blair, 8 Dave Callam, 7 Simon Taylor, 2 Dougie Hall, 3 Alasdair Dickinson, 4 Matt Mustchin, 5 Scott Murray, 6 Alasdair Strokosch, 1 Allan Jacobsen.Replacements: 16 Steven Lawrie, 17 Dave Hewett, 18 Chris Bentley, 19 Ross Rennie, 20 John Senio, 21 Duncan Hodge, 22 Lucio Lopez Fleming.

Border Reivers: 15 Calum MacRae (c), 14 Brendon Daniel, 13 Bryan Rennie, 12 Nick De Luca, 11 Garry Law, 10 Steve Jones, 9 Brendan McKerchar, 8 Kelly Brown, 7 Scott Gray, 6 John Dalziel, 5 Craig Hamilton, 4 Opeta Palepoi, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Gavin Kerr. Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Ed Kalman, 18 Stuart Grimes, 19 Ryan Grant, 20 Calum Cusiter/Rob Chrystie, 21 Andy Miller, 22 Gregor Townsend

Recommendations: Got to take the Gunners @ -14 with Paddy Power but I’m going to be cautious here and take Edinburgh to win 11-15 on the winning margins @ 11-2 with VC Bet

Fame At Last.....

2006-12-01T03:57:00.000-08:00

Well not quite.

http://www.punterslounge.com/nl18.php

This thread is also full of quality and mainly thanks to DAC, who has done a tremendous job, well, tremendous would be an understatement really. Plenty of winners in this thread and plenty of quality previews - what more could you want? Oh, he's not a bad poker player either

Autum Internationals Betting Summary....

2006-11-27T04:26:00.000-08:00

So in summary what do we have? – Buggered if I know but I’m going to go with NZ at –7 @ Bet365 purely because NZ have the capability to change gears in the last quarter and before you know it they can shoot 2 or 3 scores past you. It’s a real acid test for NZ.

Final Score: France 3-47 NZ

The Italian scrum is top notch and should really give the Crims a good test, however, the Aussie back line is quality. In all honesty it should be a cracking game and I’m going to take Italy with a healthy start of 24 points @ Mansion

Final Score: Italy 18 - 25 Aus

I have no idea about this game, no idea at all....what I do know is that the Islanders have the ability to score tries and concede them, as do this Welsh side - I kind of fancy the Islanders with a start but Over 45 points on Betfair looks really really good value at evens

Final Score: Wales 30 - 28 Pacifica

Premier Bet are offering a 17.5 points start to Wales – If you see anything close to that then jump on. I don't have an account so I've gone with NZ -21 @ Bet365

Final Score: Wales 10 - 45 NZ

So...4 from 5. The Internationals are over and I for one am looking forward to getting back to the nuts and bolts of the Magners League.

Lord of the Wings.....

2006-11-22T07:03:00.000-08:00

Wales v New Zealand - Helms Deep Stadium Cardiff - Saturday 25th November

Jenkins: The power of the enemy is growing. Henry will use his puppet Carter to destroy the people of Wales. McCaw has been unleashed. The Eye of Henry now turns to Cardiff, the last free kingdom of men. His war on this country will come swiftly. He senses victory is close. The strength of the little one, Shane, is failing. In his heart, Shane begins to understand. . For Henry will have dominion over all life on this Earth, even unto the ending of the world. The time of the English is over. Do we leave Wales to its fate? Do we let them stand alone?

I’ll be honest, I’m kacking it. This NZ team is quite frankly amazing and they have a built-in orc like ability to destroy everything in their path. The French huffed and pouffed against the AB line last Saturday night and barely made an impression. The French also threw everything they had into a brave defence but it was plain for all to see that it was just a damage limitation exercise and nothing more.

What with Jenk’s squad it seems to me (and the rest of the free world) that he’s going to want Parker to run up the middle of the field taking ball into contact over and over again, he hopes to suck in a few Kiwis and then spin it wide. Great plan! But what happens when he’s tackled? Will he and the lads be able to re-cycle the ball? Will they Buffalo. We’ve seen it all Autumn internationals….make one mistake and it’s a 50 yard run in for the Kiwi hordes.

The Welsh defence…..Roland Phillips has been specially bought in to bring a comedy element to the effort but I really have to say “what defence?” As much as I love Kevin Morgan (Dragons captain) …..he’s got a brave heart but I just can’t seem him being an effective last line of defence, oh wait! he’s got Ickle to back him up. Oh God.

Stephen Jones is back in (oh great) which now leaves us with just the one kicking option (not that I suggest kicking any loose ball to the Kiwis you understand) by why put more pressure on him after a couple of games away with injury?

At least Shanks is at 12, it’s great to have a player there who can think, oh wait, ha-ha-ha-ha.

I know it seems if I’m being overly pessimistic but mark my words, Wales won’t even come close to victory on Saturday.

Premier Bet are offering a 17.5 points start to Wales – If you see anything close to that then jump on. I don't have an account so I've gone with NZ -21 @ Bet365.

So Dai......Why All The Shiney Bookies Banners and Suchlike on the Blog?

2006-11-21T07:56:00.000-08:00

Gratuitious Picture of My mate; Leigh, on the Piss with Andy Foode and Captain Corry at Leicester RUFC

Well, to answer your questions....the simple reason is that in my opinion you need as many online bookmakers accounts as possible. The reason for this being that some may offer really good value and if we at Betting On Ice suggest that the Dragons are going to beat Munster by 46 points and your bookie is only offering 43 points then you really are cutting your own nose off if you choose just to go with the shorter line. Things can be close and we've already had a couple of one point victories so far this season.....

And lets be honest, if you open an account by clicking on the links you will receive a free bet, I've managed to turn the £30 quid Sporting Odds have given me into £57.00. It's free money and if your serious about making a few notes this season then you'd be almost foolish not too. So...let me reiterate...there are no catches and no tricks and all the bookies on the blog are the ones with what I think have the best rugby markets.

Iain Balshaw's Not Looking Well!

2006-11-21T02:49:00.000-08:00

Get well soon Iain.......

Scotland v Fine Young Cannibals

2006-11-16T08:07:00.000-08:00

Just a short preview I’m afraid. I really don’t think much of this Scotland team, they huffed and puffed against Romania and at least two of their scores were from blatantly forward passes.

I think Wales were lucky that the Islanders only played for half an hour and they did gift us 14 points with two intercepted trys under the posts. Their set piece was shabby which is only to be expected and that can only get better after an week together, but they definitely looked very dangerous in the last quarter.

The Scotland back row, to me anyway, looks a bit shabby with the exception of Parks and Webster and if Scotland allow the Islanders to open up it could be a riot. Caucau is also turning out for the Islanders and believe me it’s worth tuning in just to watch this guy.

Teams:

Islanders:

Taufa’ao Felise (Cardiff Blues, Wales) Tonga Mahonri Schwalger (Wellington, NZ) Samoa Tevita Taumoepeau (Worcester, England) Tonga Simon Raiwalui (Saracens, England) Fiji (captain) Daniel Leo (Wasps, England) Samoa Viliami Vaki (Perpignan, France) Tonga Nili Latu (Bay of Plenty) Tonga Epi Taione (Sanyo, Japan) Tonga Moses Rauluni (Saracens, England) Fiji Tusi Pisi (Massey, NZ) Samoa Rupeni Caucau (Agen, France) Fiji Elvis Seveali’i (Sale, England) Samoa Kameli Ratuvou (Saracens, England) Fiji Lome Fa’atau (Wellington, NZ) Samoa Norman Ligairi (Brive Correze, France) Fiji

Scotland:

15 Chris Paterson (Edinburgh Rugby) 14 Simon Webster (Edinburgh Rugby)13 Marcus Di Rollo (Edinburgh Rugby)12 Andrew Henderson (Glasgow Rugby)11 Sean Lamont (Northampton Saints)10 Dan Parks (Glasgow Rugby)9 Chris Cusiter (Border Reivers)*1 Gavin Kerr (Border Reivers)2 Dougie Hall (Edinburgh Rugby)3 Euan Murray (Glasgow Warriors)*4 Nathan Hines (Perpignan)5 Scott Murray (Edinburgh Rugby)6 Simon Taylor (Edinburgh Rugby)8 Johnnie Beattie (Glasgow Warriors)*7 Kelly Brown (Border Reivers)*

Recommendations: Outright Pacific Islands 11/4 @ Bet 365 AND Islanders +9 @ Paddy Power.

Profit Making Opportunity?

2006-11-16T03:45:00.000-08:00

A Wales V New Zealand World Cup Final?

A quick look at Rugby World Cup 2007 reveals the top of half of the draw is likely to throw up quarter-finalists in the form of South Africa, England (pool A), Wales and Australia (pool B). For reasons I'll come to shortly, you could happily back Wales to advance to the semi-finals whether we meet England or South Africa, with a rebound semi-final against fellow pool B member Australia. On the bottom half of the draw, New Zealand and either Scotland or Italy will advance from pool C, while France, Ireland and Argentina will be fighting to advance from pool D. So, let's extrapolate on what we know so far: Wales can beat England or South Africa because these two sides are quite weak. England, arein disarray, while South Africa – those most notorious travellers – oscillate between terrible and admirable. On the other hand, Wales – after the blood-letting of the player revolt that ousted Mike Ruddock as coach, is on the up.

Gareth Jenkins has revitalised Wales and of all the teams chasing the All Blacks, it's the Welsh who most resemble the New Zealanders in terms of depth. After the 29-29 draw with Australia, Jenkins made 14 changes for an easy win over the Pacific Islanders. We all know the importance of depth, given how much Henry has foisted that mantra on the New Zealand rugby public over the past two years. On that score, Wales are ahead of an Australia outfit that could yet go downhill through lack of adequate back-up to its leading 10 or 12 players. The scrum is still weak and John Connolly's experimental backlines have yet to deliver results. If Connolly persists with Mat Rogers at first-five, Australia cannot possibly win the cup and shouldn't go past the semi-finals.

Rogers, one of the most overrated players on the international scene, is too erratic. Not even Stephen Larkham's skills outside can make up his shortcomings. So, it's Wales, with the choice of two brilliant first-fives in captain Stephen Jones and newcomer James Hook, to reach the final. Assuming France recovers from the humiliation of Lyons and return to its place at the top of European rugby, it should finish on top of pool D and avoid the All Blacks in the quarter-final.

Wales are 25-1 with Paddy Power at the moment and will only get shorter as we near the Tournament. Another factor to add in is that Wales are playing the Aussies at home at the Millenium stadium and this really could help Wales win their group and get an easy(ish) quarter final. There will be no over-whelming favourites in the Quarters (barring NZ of course) and I’m convinced there will be money to be made by laying Wales with the 25-1 still in the sky rocket.

Dragons 17- 10 Edinburgh - "Thats right....I'm an idiot"

2006-11-13T03:37:00.000-08:00

Apologies folks, thought this one was in the bag.....The weather closed in and it clattered down for the whole game and Mike Circus had a complete nightmare, we should have been winning the first half and not losing it by 10. We also had numerous chances at the end. Gutted.

I suppose I should be happy that we won and kept in touch with the pack.

Montpellier v USAP - French 14

2006-11-10T08:38:00.000-08:00

Just had a nod from a friend in the know - apparently USAP are sending out their kids to face Montpellier tomorrow.

Montpellier are available at +3 as of now with Skybet @ 5/4

Dragons v Edinburgh

2006-11-10T03:42:00.000-08:00

Dragons v Edinburgh - Friday 10th Nov - KO 7.10PM

When I’ve suggested it to my colleagues that I was going to be betting on the Dragons tonight their initial reactions have been “Right, that’s me putting me mortgage on Edinburgh then” and ”That seals it. Edinburgh to win by 20” as in the past I have been far to over cautious and to be fair, I’ve cost them a couple of quid. Even the most amateur of gamblers knows never to be emotionally involved in a bet but I can’t help it. Don’t say you haven’t been warned.

It’s international weekend and obviously both teams are missing players, thanks to the quality of the Dragons squad we are only missing Morgan, Goughy, Cooper, Owen and Sweeney. Whilst Edinburgh are missing a whole plethora of players, mainly their backs and they have 6 apprentices making the squad – I can only guess that an apprentice is the same as an Academy player here in Wales. It has to be noted that double Lions No8, Simon Taylor is starting for the first time this season for Edinburgh and he’s sure to steady the youngsters but it also has to be noted that Charvis, Ringer and Bearman are in for the Dragons and have been playing out of their skins all season. Charvis and Ringer have been looked over for the Wales squad and I know they will be out to prove a couple of points tonight.

The Dragons squad is:

Newport Gwent Dragons: 15 Aled Thomas, 14 Gareth Wyatt, 13 Nathan Brew, 12 Ashley Smith, 11 Aled Brew, 10 Mike Hercus, 9 Alex Walker, 8 Joe Bearman, 7 Colin Charvis (c), 6 Jamie Ringer, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Andrew Hall, 3 Lee Harrison, 2 Kieran Crawford, 1 Adam Black.Replacements: 16 Ben Daly, 17 Jamie Corsi, 18 Bryn Griffiths, 19 Nic Fitisemanu, 20 Richard Fussell, 21 Craig Warlow, 22 Gareth Baber.

And it really is the strongest we can put out, Aled Thomas makes his first start of the season after injury and has been sorely missed, the Brew brothers are fit and well and the Academy lads playing have already been blooded more than once this season, which is more than can be said for their Edinburgh counterparts. My main worry is Mike Circus, he hasn’t had his kicking boots on at all these past few weeks but Craig Warlow is on the bench should we need to haul the Yank off. Ashley Smith is at 12 and he has impressed me with his brave ball carrying, he could really be one for the future. The secret will be to get the ball wide and I know the lads are more than capable of it.

The bench is also surprisingly strong with Nic, Craig and Gareth who normally start for the Dragons, it’s a whole lot stronger than the Edinburgh bench that’s for sure.
I also feel that Paul Turner has targeted this game, he rested a few vital players away at Leinster last weekend and he knows as well as everyone in Gwent just how important this is, we can either join the pack in the middle of table and keep in touch with Cardiff or we can be cast adrift with Munster and The Borders – it really is the biggest game of the season so far. I think we could get a bonus point win.

Coral are offering –7 on the Dragons but you can get as much as +11 with Edinburgh should you fancy them to turn us over. I don’t.

Recommendation Dragons –7 @ Corals

Wales v Islanders Not Good Enough To Get Into the NZ Side

2006-11-09T05:39:00.000-08:00

Wales v Pacific Islanders - Sat 11th Nov - KO 2.30

We're unstoppable! We make 14 changes and we're still unbeatable. We're just like the All Blacks only we're red and we're not All Red. I predict a festival of running rugby, and of course the Welsh will come out on top. James Hook plays his best running rugby from 12, watch out NZ rejects - he's coming for you!

K Morgan: Class, class, class! Makes Chris Cullen look like Chris Martin!

Lee Byrne: Slow and rubbish! I mean, fast and awesome! Watch out for his up-and-under!

Sonny Parker: Oh my dear fucking God, kill me now.

James Hook: What a guy! Prepare to be shredded, Islanders!

Mark Jones: Paaaaaaaaaace! Mark who Gisbergen still has nightmares about him! As do Topsy Ojo, Sean Lamont.....

Ceri Sweeney: THE MAN! THE LEGEND!

Mike Phillips: Look out Islanders! He's going to do to you what he did to France! MASSACRE!!!!!!!!

Alix Popham: Grrrrrr! Bosh! Knock-on.

Gavin Thomas: Kill me kill me kill me kill me kill me kill me

AW Jones: Amazing player! So good he can play out of position and still be awesome!

Michael Owen: Kill me kill me kill me kill me kill me kill me

Sidoli: Funny accent! Can be good when he wants! Feeeeeeel the scrummaging might of Owen and Sidoli

Horsman: DESTROOOOOOOOOYED! The Islanders scrum when he's finished with it. Who cares about yelloe cards? Punching is fun!

Rhys Thomas: Best hooker in Wales! Miles better than hopeless Rees!

Duncan Jones: El Skippero! Amazing player!

I have no idea about this game, no idea at all....what I do know is that the Islanders have the ability to score tries and concede them, as do this Welsh side - I kind of fancy the Islanders with a start but Over 45 points on Betfair looks really really good value at evens.

Italy v Australia

2006-11-09T05:05:00.000-08:00

Italy v Australia Sat 11th November - KO 16.00 GMT

Italy were nobodies fools during last years 6 Nations. They should have and could have beaten the Micks but thanks to some diabolical refereeing by Spreaders they fell short – the pushed Scotland and drew with an admittedly under strength Welsh team in Cardiff. The fact of the matter is that they just don’t get steamrollered anymore and I fancy that the Crims may do a bit of experimenting and I don’t mean that in a Queensland Cowboys sort of way…… I could be proved wrong but this game may not start with the same intensity as last weekend.

The Italian scrum is top notch and should really give the Crims a good test, however, the Aussie back line is quality. In all honesty it should be a cracking game and I’m going to take Italy with a healthy start of 24 points @ Mansion

France v New Zealand

2006-11-09T02:19:00.000-08:00

Les Bleus v The All Cheats - Sat 11th Nov KO20.00 GMT

You really need to hold your nerve when betting on a French rugby team…they could quite easily mince into Lyon, laugh at the Haka, shrug their Gallic shoulders and then play the most breathtaking rugby ever seen – they could also turn up, decide they really can’t be bothered, eat some cheese, surrender and get turned over by 40 points…such are the French.

The Kiwis have made a lot of changes from the team that burgled England but as you know the kiwis are capable of putting out about 3 world-class teams. ‘Enry has bolstered the scrum a tad and the centre pairing of Mcallister and Smith does look quite attractive. The French players have been all over La Boulangerie so far this season and do look a little bit fatigued and this is their first get together for quite some time. You also have to add in the fact that the French assault on the World Cup starts here and they should be looking to lay down a few markers against a team they should be meeting in the final come next September.

So in summary what do we have? – Buggered if I know but I’m going to go with NZ at –7 @ Bet365 purely because NZ have the capability to change gears in the last quarter and before you know it they can shoot 2 or 3 scores past you. It’s a real acid test for NZ.

It's Bovine Time!!!

2006-11-06T02:39:00.000-08:00

2/2 From the weekend, folks!

Recommendation: Glasgow –4 @ VC Bet (Galsgow 39-34)
Recommendation: Ulster – 11 @ Skybet.com (Ulster 32-8)

Summary as follows:

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster - Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow - Lose
Glasgow v Border - Win
Connacht v Ulster - Win
Borders v Leinster - Lose
Ulster v Blues - Win
Ospreys v Glasgow - Win
Ulster v Borders - Win
Glasgow v Conn - Win

If I was a Gambling type of bloke

2006-11-03T07:56:00.000-08:00

Thats me on the Bus back from Northampton...

...and I'm not you understand I'd also be keen to back Leinster to beat a Cap of 9 against the Dragons on Saturday evening but i've banned myself from Betting on the Dragons even though common sense tells me otherwise but I've lost just about every bet I've suggested on the lads.

Again, whilst I don't condone betting, if you really must have a flutter you could do worse than watch Munster get torn a new one by the Scarlets on Sunday. Scarlets have a squad and Munster don't, apparently there is a Combine Harvester exhibition this weekend in Limerick and there won't be half the Munster fans there usually is at games such as this. Minus 8 on Bet365 should be taken faster than Cork knacker in a stolen Peugot.

These are not tips, just my thoughts......

and yes, that is a feminine hygeine product protuding from my ear....

Glasgow v Connacht

2006-11-03T02:24:00.000-08:00

Glasgow v Connacht-
Friday 3rd November 2006 - 7.30PM KO

As regular readers will know….I’ve been vaunting the return of the Warriors for some time now and feel they are underrated, they’ve had 3 straight wins at home now and have played very well in the European Cup........even some of the local kids are putting down their crack pipes and attendences are on the up.

What I especially like about this game is the fact that Glasgow rested their entire front 5 against Parma, who return tonight and are staying with the backs that ran in close to 70 points, in fact Leonelli is returning so all in all they are looking pretty darn good, all things considered.

Again, as other regular readers will know I have much respect for Conn, they are a small squad with a big heart but they just can’t seem to edge a win, they’ve lost two heartbreakers against GP opposition in the European cup and are playing their first away game since the 1st September.

Glasgow are building up momentum and Conn have lost any they had after their decent start to the campaign. I’ve got to take the –4 from VC Bet – a more true reflection would be about 8, which you can get at William Hill if you fancy Conn but I really don’t think people have noticed how much Glasgow have come on in the last 6 weeks

Form: Glasgow Warriors’ two victories so far in the Magners League have been against Munster and Border Reivers, whilst the Warriors have won their last three games at Hughenden in all competitions. Connacht won last time out in the Magners League: 16-9 at home to the Dragons but this game represents their first away game in the competition since 1 September when they won 29-15 at Border Reivers. Glasgow have the slight edge in the eight previous meetings between the two, gaining four victories to Connacht’s three plus one match drawn.

Recommendation: Glasgow –4 @ VC Bet

Ulster v Borders

2006-11-02T08:56:00.000-08:00

Ulster v Borders -

Friday 3rd November 2006 KO 7.30PM

Well, well, well….We are on the cusp of the Autum Internationals and there are some wheeling and dealings taking place with regards to team selections.

The Borders have made 8 changes (with 6 completely new faces) to the side beaten at Northampton last week and whilst Cussiter will always bring something to the table, Ross Ford, the Borders hooker has been suspended by the club and is going to be replaced by debutant, Steve Scott. My Borders contact also describes their new number 8 (Beattie) as “gash” and they have a veritable child playing in the front 3, Ryan Grant.

Ulster are without 6 of their players who lost against the Scarlets last week thanks to the forthcoming International against South Afrikka but still retain a core of classy players. Lets be honest here, Borders are a brave wee team but struggle away from Netherdale, add in the fact that there a 6 brand new squad members, multiply that figure by the factor that the game is being played on a Friday night at Ravers…..and what do you get…….well, unless these 6 new Borders players have been genetically engineered by a top team of scientists located in a secret base below the streets of Auchtermuchty…..you get a shoeing.

Recommendation: Ulster – 11 @ Skybet.com

Betting Summary So Far This Season

2006-11-02T04:32:00.000-08:00

Celtic League Handicap Bets

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster - Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow - Lose
Glasgow v Border - Win
Connacht v Ulster - Win
Borders v Leinster - Lose
Ulster v Blues - Win
Ospreys v Glasgow - Win

Selections: 13
Winners: 9
Winning Percentage: 69.23%

Doubles and Trebles

Conn/Edinburgh Double - Win
Glasgow/Ulster Double - Win
Leinster/Munster/Ospreys Treble - Lose

Selections: 3
Winners: 2
Winning Percentage: 66.66%

European Handicap Bets

Bristol v Dragons Lost
Castres v Treviso Win
Calvisano v Stade Francais Lost
Borders v Overmach Parma Win
Leicester v Munster Lost
Ulster v Toulouse Win
Bourgoin v Cardiff Win
Biarritz v Northampton Lost
London Irish v Scarlets Win
Agen v Edinburgh Win

Selections: 10
Winners: 6
Winning Percentage: 60.00%

I'm Sorry.....

2006-10-30T01:57:00.000-08:00

I couldn't get near a PC yesterday due to personal problems and was unable to reply to the surgle of late entrants for the Poker Tournament.

Please accept my sincere apologies.

BoI

HEC and Challenge Cup Bets

2006-10-27T04:52:00.000-07:00

Castres v Treviso

Who said it was going to be easy? In all honesty Castres should cover this cap, they are sending out a decent team to face the game Italians and will be buoyed by their close defeat at the hands of Wasps last weekend. It has to be noted that Treviso beat Castres home and away four years ago but the French team had surrendered any hope of qualification by then.

What encourages me is the fact that Castre’s coach is making noises about wanting to qualify from the group to make up for a very poor start to the domestic competition, with 5 points from every game being the target – what also encourages me further is that Chang-a-lang is officiating and it has to be said that he is a homer and when it boils down to it and could devastate the Italians at the breakdown. I also had it confirmed from a French friend that the team to face Calvisano is of equal quality to the side they put out against the Wasps so no surrender monkeys

Recommendation - Castres -18 at Bet365 or Coral

Bristol v Dragons

I really really like this -6 on Bristol. Bristol are putting out a rested 1st XV and if the press I've been reading all week is anything to go by then they are also pretty well up for it. Whilst we won't be to much of a pushover we are missing Jamie Ringer and Rhys Thomas in the forwards, both of these would have been in the Wales Squad if it wasn't for the injuries they sustained in the battle against Northampton. We also have Ceri Sweeney who is kicking like a machine at the moment but I really do feel that Bristol are the stronger team tonight and -6 points is just a gift. Also the Bristol coach was at The Dragons for a year during the reign of Anderson (spit!!! - no offence leaguies) and would love to get one over on us, add to that the strong Welsh contingent at Bristol who feel they are being underated and not really looked upon as contenders for a Welsh squad place, well...you've got a lot of motivated people playing the Dragons tonight. If I was capping this game I'd have had it at +14 Dragons.

Recommendation Bristol -6 @ Sporting Odds

Sale should also beat the cap but I have to honestly state that the rest of the matches are to close to call - Ospreys at -14 is tempting as is Ulster +4 away at Scarlets but again it's very tight.

Lost?

2006-10-26T06:18:00.000-07:00

It's getting on for 20 past 2 on Thursday afternoon and our the Nations bookies still haven't had the nouse (some would say balls) to post their selections for this weekend games. This time last week there was almost a full array of prices to take as of now only Bet365 have had the cohanas.

Is it because it's a difficult week for them? Is it because it was the Bookies Ball last night in Cheltenham? Or is it because they want to wait and see the team sheets?

Be very careful now, we're waiting!

A Call To Arms?

2006-10-25T02:33:00.000-07:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UL87bkiYiik

A New Feature For The Blog....

2006-10-24T05:23:00.000-07:00

What I know about computer script you could write on the back of a benson and hedges packet and still have enough space left over to write down Andy Robinson's England Tactics and even then still have more than enough room for at least 10 jokes on Lawrence Bruno Dallaglio but I digress....somehow I have managed to incorpoate a cheap and tacky guest book for the blog. You can find it under Recommended Links.

The guest book will cover the usual functions.....people taking the piss and such like which is fine but I'd also like to try and extend it a wee bit to include peoples thoughts on the selections the team has made and any other snippetts of information people may be in receipt of, for example if you know that Toni and Guy's has closed down temporarily in Swansea then this could have a dramatic effect on the Ospreys morale for their next home game.

HEC Betting Summary....

2006-10-23T02:38:00.000-07:00

A barely satisfactory 5/8 This weekend but it’s useful to pick over the bones and see what lessons are there to be learnt and to see where I went totally wrong

Calvisano v Stade Francais Lost
Borders v Overmach Parma Win
Leicester v Munster Lost
Ulster v Toulouse Win
Bourgoin v Cardiff Win
Biarritz v Northampton Lost
London Irish v Scarlets Win
Agen v Edinburgh Win

Calvisano v SF

I’ve quite simply underestimated how poor the Italian sides are this season. SF did send a 2nd string team out but sadly the French reserves were far to strong. My mistake is looking at the Italian national team as a whole and thinking they’ve come on leaps and bounds. Looks like I’m wrong.

Leicester v Munster

Never underestimate Munster and the power of the HEC. With hindsight it was obvious that Munster were targeting this game and the blips against Edinburgh last week was just that. Munster did get a lucky try and I do think the Tigers tried to play rugby but at the end of the day the red machine ticked on and I should have been aware.

Biarritz v Northampton

Kind of disappointing this result as Biarritz had the cap covered at half time and merely took their feet off their collective French pedals and let Northampton score the only try of the second half. I really thought this game was heading for a massacre but it’s always tricky betting on caps involving the French – just one of those things I suppose. The French, as I mentioned on Friday, are over estimated in this years HEC and it should make for some interesting betting.

As I've mentioned previously....My target is to make a profit from the group games, something which I'm sure I'll accomplish. Should be interesting next weekend watching the bookies cap the Celtic League teams as I think I'm right in saying that if you had bet on all the caps including Celtic League teams you would have come out 6 for 6.

HEC Bets...

2006-10-20T02:08:00.000-07:00

Now - things are going to take a little time to settle down and for patterns to emerge - I'm not that confident as I would normally be but I am confident that we'll make a profit over the tournament in the long run.

Calvisano v Stade Francais – Calvisano +26 @ Expect.com

Ok, so it’s a supposed minnow playing one of the best sides in Europe, fair enough. Calvisano are a decent team with a fair sprinkling of Italian internationals but the crux for me here is that the French like to play it canny and I can’t see them sending a full strength team up and along the med as the there are obviously bigger fish to fry in the group and at the top of the French 14. SF will win of course they will but Calivsano will run that cap close I’m sure. SF as thought are sending a weakened team but do have a very strong bench to call on should they need it

Borders v Overmach Parma - Borders+12 @ Paddy Power

Borders, fresh from their surprise win over Leinster last week will be looking to continue their winning ways against the Italian qualifiers. Parma, bless em, are a good honest bunch but to be frank – they ain’t that good and what decent players they had last year have been snatched away from them, Emerich pour example. Expect a dodgy first half and Borders to ponce away with it in the last 20.

Leicester v Munster Tigers -5 @ PaddyPower

Now I don’t care what you say, Munster won’t win this, unless they’ve all been anally probed by Alien visitors and been afforded some kind of strange rugby playing ability since their raping by a very average Edinburgh side. Munster started the season in a shit state and have continued to be utter shit even with all of the "stars" back in the line up…..they bravely hung onto a 1 point lead against the Borders (the flecking borders???) and lost to a bunch of skag taking heid the balls up in Glasgow. Blind faith and optimism won’t be enough for the Munster fans here. On a plus note for Munster – this incoming arse kicking may just kick start their season.

Ospreys V Sale –

To tight to call on the cap.

Ulster v Toulouse - Ulster+4 @ Betfred

Ulster have been on fire at home and have torn asunder all who made the trip to the province. Toulouse on the other hand are struggling a little bit with their form and have serious weaknesses in their front five and their backs seem a little leaderless since the injury to Michelak. I would have preferred this even more if it were not a lunchtime kick off but you can count on 15,000 Ulstermen shouting themselves silly. Ulster could win this outright never mind the generous offer of a 4 point start from Betfred. All the French are being over estimated in my opinion.

Bourgoin v Cardiff – Cardiff +12 @ Bet365.

Bourgoin are a funny old team – last time they were in the HEC they really didn’t bother and just concentrated on the F14, who knows what their target will be this year but I suspect it’s more of the same due to their very small squad. They are a very physical team with a good kicking game but I can’t help but like Cardiff here, the Blues have won away in England recently and will quite fancy their chances to take something from this game, even a losing bonus point which could become vital. Good back line selected for the Blues tonight and if the forwards can compete then it could be a great night for the blues.

Biarritz v Northampton – Biarritz –18 @ Betdirect.

Northampton could get trousered here. Cohen and Thompson are back from injuries which is handy but I’ve seen a first XV Northampton play this season and not only where they kept to a few chances by a much lower rated team they were also outfought and out battled. An unfancied bottom of the league Worcester side also spanked a good Northampton side a few weeks ago. Northampton are also rudderless after losing their captain through injury with Darren Fox stepping into the breach. Biarritz on the other hand will be hurting after last years Final defeat and if they are in the mood could blast Northampton away.

London Irish v Scarlets – Scarlets +6 Bet365

I really hope I’m not letting myself get suckered into supporting the Welsh teams here….but the Scarlets squad, on paper anyway, looks really impressive and they certainly have the players to turn over the Exiles. Peel and Jones are paired together and Regan King is probably the best centre in the country at the moment. Mike Catt does return for the Irish tonight but they only played last Sunday and have been bemoaning the short turn around where the Scarlets have had an extra week off. Form wise the Exiles have been pants with two wins from five whilst if Scarlets win just one of their games in hand they will be top of the vastly superior Magners League.

Leinster v Gloucester –

To tight to call

Agen v Edinburgh – Edinburgh + 10 Paddy Power

Ah, what the heck, I’m going with Edinburgh here, even if they are Chris Pattersonless. The Gunners are one of those teams that really can beat anyone on their day and I’m fancying that Agen are just going to pay this tournament lip service and concentrate on the league. Agen it has to be said are a win at home lose away kind of team but Edinburgh will be bolstered by that really excellent and some would say easy victory away in Limerick against what was meant to be a 1st XV Munster side and could stop Agen playing the same way they did against the Red machine

A Word About Our Sponsors....

2006-10-19T02:40:00.000-07:00

Since it was first Launched in Glasgow, at the beginning of 2003, Magners Original Irish Cider has instigated a rejuvenation of the cider market and continues to take the market by storm. The result of true dedication to quality, Magners Original cider is without doubt one of the most exciting brands to enter the British alcoholic drinks market in recent years. The unique and refreshing taste of the iconic Magners pint bottle served over mounds of fresh ice, has truly captured consumers attention.

It really is sweeping the nation but we here at Betting On Ice are confused about peoples real opinions so our investigative journalist hit the streets to find out what people really think.....

“It’s shit” – Derek Noble, London W1

“Real men don't put ice cubes in pint glasses. FACT” – Danny Stephens, Zimbabwe

“I'm a big fan. With ice and on special occasions, a slice of lemon and a parasol. Nothing better on a hot day” – Daniel O’Donnell, Dublin 4

“A pint of Magners and soda on a hot day is very nice if there's no Pimms to be had. Otherwise it's utter gash” – Rowan Quinn, Richmond

The next cunt I see holding a pint glass with ice in it is gonna get it smashed in his friggin boat race – Julian Beach, Rio De Janeiro

“It's a drink for people who don't really like drinking” - Arthur Dent, Bedfordshire

"Looks like a pint of woodpecker with some extra orange colour in it to me" - Phil Doon, Inverness

"a million tramps can't be wrong" - J Guscott, Cardiff

"I prefer White Lightning. How can you argue with 2 pound 99 for 3.5 litres" - Tony Brown, South Wales

Tigers v Turnips - HEC Preview

2006-10-19T01:34:00.000-07:00

Saturday 21st October

The red combine harvester bumbles it's way to the Metropolis of Leicester for what is an eagerley enticipated fixture for all alike. It's a massive game to be honest - The Tigers need to get their season back on track after playing the very personification of the English brand of rugby we have come to know and love and Munster who had their arses served to them on a plate last week against Edinburgh at packed Thomond Park need to really buck their ideas up.

I think Tigers have the edge in the Scrum and it's about honours even in the lineout. Andy Foode for Tigers has come on leaps and bounds since he stopped Martin Corry putting angel delight in his slimfast and I worry about Ronan O'Gara - if he hasn't got the right boots on on Saturday (and to be fair he's been kicking like a smacked up donkey so far this season) then things could get very messy for an out of sorts Munster as they don't really have a plan B.

Head to Head

1. Castrogiovanni vs Horan adv TIGERS

2. Chuter vs Sheahan adv TIGERS

3. White vs Hayes adv TIGERS

4. Kay vs O'Callaghan EVEN

5. Cullen vs POC adv TURNIPS

6. Jennings vs Leamy adv TURNIPS

7. Moody vs Wallace adv TURNIPS

8. Corry vs Foley adv TIGERS

9. Bemand vs Stringer adv TURNIPS

10. Goode vs ROG adv TURNIPS

11. J.Murphy vs Dowling adv TIGERS

12. Gibson vs Halstead adv TURNIPS

13. Smith vs Murphy adv TIGERS

14. G.Murphy vs O'Leary adv TIGERS

L15. Vesty vs Payne adv TIGERS

Odds are currently 2/5 on Leicester which I suppose is ok but I shall refrain from making a handicap prediction until all becomes clearer on Friday - I'm looking forward to seeing how PaddyPower dress this one up.

Poker Poker Poker....

2006-10-17T03:17:00.000-07:00

Let me be honest - the numbers of participants aren't exactly flying in - but there will be enough to play the tournament so no worries there.

The prize pool is still £100.00

I've decided to post the link you need and the password required to join the tournament - Everyone is welcome

http://banner.cdpoker.com/cgi-bin/SetupPoker.exe?member=DACSTER

Password: sweeney

Once you've opened an account scroll down under the "Tournaments" Tab until you find "Celtic League Poker.

Cheers.

Get 'em whilst their hot!

2006-10-16T05:11:00.000-07:00

The Heineken Cup is just around the corner and I've been having a nosey at the markets. No real eye-brow raisers as it's just the same old faces that will be fighting for the same old quarter final spots. However.....one thing did catch my eye@

Northampton 40-1 to win the HEC.

Now don't start laughing and pointing at me just yet - Northampton have got Stade Francais in their group but they've also got The Borders and Overmach Parma, now...it's my line of thinking that Northampton could squueze through this group thanks to gaining Bonus Points, it really is the weakest of all groups and they could hammer, and I mean hammer Borders and Parma at home - it's also not unfathomable for them to beat Stade at home either.

Right, say we have £25.00 on Northampton to win the HEC Cup and they make it through to the quarter finals.....we will then have £1000.00 worth of potentail winnings to back whomever Northampton are playing away to assuming they come second of course - if they actually won the group it would be more profitable for us as they would be playing at home.

We are not talking about making a vast amount of money here but I reckon you could turn that £25.00 into around £100.00-£150.00 without too much effort.

Another selection along a similar vein is:

Dragons to Win the European Challenge Cup 20-1

Dragons have Bayonne, Bristol and Bucharesti in their group. Bristol really won't be interested in this fixture what with their continuing success at the top of the Guiness Premiership...Bayonne are struggling for survival in France and I'd be vastly impressed if they send nothing but reserve teams out and I feel they will be paying lip service to the tournament. Bucharest are left and are not to be underestimate but should still finish bottom of the pile.

I really think Dragons could top their group giving them a home tie in the Quarters. If we backed the Dragons with £25.00 that would give us £480.00 to play with to make us a profit. If they don't win the group I'm quite sure they could qualify as one of the best second place teams.

Betting Summmary.....

2006-10-16T01:07:00.000-07:00

Celtic League Betting Summary

The story so far........Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster - Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow - Lose
Conn/Edinburgh Double - Win
Glasgow v Border - Win
Connacht v Ulster - Win
Glasgow/Ulster Double - Win
Borders v Leinster - Lose
Ulster v Blues - Win
Ospreys v Glasgow - Win
Leinster/Munster/Ospreys Treble - Lose

Well - a few shocks at the weekend - Munster getting beaten at home and the Ladyboys losing away in Borders. Still..... 16 Selections made has so far provided 11 winners.

Ulster v Blues Sat 14th Oct - KO 17.30

2006-10-13T06:19:00.000-07:00

Ulster v Blues

I’ve been humming and harring about this game all day. The fact of the matter is that the Blues are sending over a weakend team with 8 changes to the team that beat Saracens last week. I also mistakenly thought Humphries was out for Ulster but no – he’s back in the team. Theres also a bit of needle for this game as the Blues were a bit errr…..naughty in the reverse fixture in Cardiff last year.

The way I see it is that Ulster, whilst having one eye on their HEC game next weekend will be looking to crush this Blues team and hopefully take a 5 pointer and retain their lofty status at the head of the Celtic league. Also add in the factor that is basically an unchanged side from the team that beat Connacht quite convincingly last weekend. Blair and Rush are out for the Blues and whilst they do have some depth they will surely miss those quality players at a sold out and beered up Ravenhill.

Form: Ulster returned to the top of the Magners League table with a 24-17 victory in Connacht last Friday and will be all out to extend their winning home run beyond the current eight match streak. Ulster have not lost to a Welsh team in 2006. Cardiff Blues have won their last three matches in all competitions, although they have not won on the road in the league since an 18-13 victory at the Dragons on 19 April. Since March 2003 the Blues have won just once in ten visits to Ireland: 18-8 in Connacht on 22 January 2005. Ulster did the league double over Cardiff Blues last season, whilst the Blues have never won in four previous visits to Ravenhill.

Ulster: 15 Bryn Cunningham, 14 Andrew Maxwell, 13 Kevin Maggs, 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 David Humphreys, 9 Isaac Boss, 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Stephen Ferris, 6 Neil Best, 5 Matt McCullough, 4 Justin Harrison, 3 Bryan Young, 2 Rory Best, 1 Justin Fitzpatrick.Replacements: 16 Paul Shields, 17 Declan Fitzpatrick, 18 Tim Barker, 19 Neil McMillan, 20 Kieran Campbell, 21 Adam Larkin, 22 Scott Young.

Cardiff Blues: 15 Nick Macleod, 14 Chris Czekaj, 13 Jamie Robinson, 12 Marc Stcherbina, 11 Rhys Williams, 10 Nicky Robinson, 9 Ed Fairhurst, 8 Mark Lewis, 7 Ben White, 6 Scott Morgan, 5 James Goode, 4 Deiniol Jones, 3 Gary Powell, 2 Duane Goodfield, 1 John Yapp.Replacements: 16 Gethin Jenkins, 17 Gareth Williams, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Martyn Williams, 20 Wayne Evans, 21 Tom Shanklin, 22 David Flannigan.

Recommendation: Ulster –6 10/11 – It’s worth opening an account with UK Betting for this one. Skybet are going as high as –10 which is probably a bit more like it.

Safe as Houses?

2006-10-13T03:17:00.000-07:00

If you move fast enough you can get fairly safe money on a bankable treble:

Leinster
Munster
Ospreys

Best bookies available at the moment are Stan James who will give you a paltry £5.56 on every tenner you stake.

Ospreys v Glasgow Friday 13th Oct 7.15KO

2006-10-13T02:45:00.000-07:00

Ospreys v Glasgow

I’ve noticed Glasgow’s improvement over their last 3 games and you can be sure they will be coming down to the Liberty Stadium looking to get something out of the game. Glasgow are also keeping the exact same 22 who stuffed Borders last weekend with just one change to the starting 15.

The Ospreys are a bit of an enigma at the moment – getting completely humped over in Ulster two weeks ago and then turning in great performances against the English teams in the EDF Cup. The Ospreys side look delicious (on paper) and Gavin Henson is being played at 10 which leaves room for the impressive looking Hook to play inside centre again. This Ospreys team hasn’t clicked at all in the Celtic League but you certainly got to think that’s got to change sometime. In all honestly Ospreys should be looking to secure a 4 try bonus point win tonight if they are going to continue being up amoungst the challengers for the league title. Both teams will be looking to take some momentum into their respective HEC games next weekend.

Form: The Ospreys tripped up last time out in the Magners League: 7-43 at Ulster on 22 September. However at Liberty Stadium the Welshmen have won ten of their last eleven encounters in all competitions. The Ospreys have not lost to a Scottish opponent since Edinburgh beat them at Murrayfield in September 2005. Glasgow Warriors beat Border Reivers 25-0 at Hughenden last Friday – only the second time they have ever blanked an opponent in a league game after winning 35-0 against Connacht at the same venue in December 2004. Glasgow’s only victory in their last 11 matches against Welsh opponents was 17-10 at Stradey Park on 12 May. The Ospreys have lost just once in six previous encounters against Glasgow: 31-34 at Hughenden in May 2004.

Ospreys: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Nikki Walker, 13 Sonny Parker, 12 James Hook, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Gavin Henson, 9 Justin Marshall, 8 Ryan Jones, 7 Steve Tandy, 6 Jonathan Thomas, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Brent Cockbain, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Duncan Jones (c).Replacements: 16 Barry Williams, 17 Paul James, 18 Alun Wyn Jones, 19 Filo Tiatia, 20 Jason Spice, 21 Shaun Connor, 22 Andrew Bishop.

Glasgow: 15 Rory Lamont, 14 Hefin O'Hare, 13 Graeme Morrison, 12 Scott Barrow, 11 Thom Evans, 10 Colin Gregor, 9 Graeme Beveridge, 8 John Beattie, 7 John Barclay, 6 Andrew Wilson, 5 Alastair Kellock, 4 Andy Newman, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Fergus Thomson, 1 Justin Va'a.Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Kevin Tkachuk, 18 Dan Turner, 19 Donnie Macfadyen, 20 Sam Pinder, 21 Dan Parks, 22 Andrew Henderson.

Recommendation: I’ve got to go with that Opsrey’s team, it looks the part. I’m a little worried about Glasgows current resurgence but you can get Osprey’s –11 10/11 at BlueSquare.com

Borders v Leinster Friday 13th Oct KO 7.30PM

2006-10-13T02:08:00.000-07:00

Borders V Leinster

You’d think this game would be easy to call after last weeks results; Leinster beat Munster in front of a record Celtic League Crowd and the Borders got punched out 25-0 in Glasgow. But it’s not easy in the slightest – It’s HEC time next weekend and some of the team decisions have left me a little worried. No matter.

At the end of the day this should come down to class and Leinster’s backs look very classy indeed; Brian O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy, Denis Hickie, and Felipe Contepomi should do enough to secure a decent win for the Lions. Chris Cussiter and McCrae are back for the Borders which is good news for them but even with Cussiter supplying the ammunition I’m not sure the Borders are good enough to capitalise. Leinster did concede 20 points last week but that came mostly from the notorious Munster pack and the boot of O’Gara but Borders haven’t really got anything they can compare although McCrae is a competent kicker.

Form: Border Reivers are struggling with form of late and have just one victory to show for their toils from their last dozen matches: 43-5 over the Dragons at Netherdale on 26 May. In addition the Reivers have lost their last eight games against Irish Provinces. Leinster lowered the colours of Munster 27-20 at Lansdowne Road on Friday and are now going for a third successive Magners League victory. The Leinstermen did lose however on their last visit to Scotland: 14-20 to Edinburgh at Murrayfield on 8 September. Leinster won both matches against the Reivers last season although the second one was by the narrowest of margins in a 69 point thriller at Netherdale on 7 April.

Borders: 15 Calum MacRae, 14 Simon Danielli, 13 Ben MacDougall, 12 Garry Law, 11 Nick De Luca, 10 Steve Jones, 9 Chris Cusiter (c), 8 Kelly Brown, 7 Scott Gray, 6 Ross Beattie, 5 Craig Hamilton, 4 Opeta Palepoi, 3 Ed Kalman, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Gavin Kerr.Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Bruce Douglas, 18 Scott Newlands, 19 John Dalziel, 20 Brendan McKerchar, 21 Andy Miller, 22 Gregor Townsend.

Leinster: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Luke Fitzgerald, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Denis Hickie, 10 Felipe Contepomi, 9 Guy Easterby, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Keith Gleeson, 6 Cameron Jowitt, 5 Malcolm O'Kelly, 4 Trevor Hogan, 3 Will Green, 2 Brian Blaney, 1 Reggie Corrigan.Replacements: 16 Harry Vermaas, 17 Bernard Jackman, 18 Owen Finegan, 19 Stephen Keogh, 20 Cillian Willis, 21 Christian Warner, 22 Kieran Lewis

Recommendation: Leinster could win this by a massive margin but the Borders won’t be the push over everyone thinks. Paddy power who normally are a tad bias towards the Irish teams are offering a lowly 13 to the Borders. Leinster –13 10/11 @ Paddy Power.

1st Celtic League Poker Championships - Represent Your Region....

2006-10-09T05:26:00.000-07:00

The Celtic League Poker Championships – Sponsored by CD Poker and BettingOnIce.blogspot.com

Hi Everyone,

I am running the first ever Celtic League Poker Championship – This is your chance to represent your region/province and go head to head against your rivals.

Now, this bit may be hard to believe but there are no catches whatsoever – The tournament will be a FreeRoll with £100.00 in prizes and will not cost you a single penny to enter, all you will have to do is:

1. Email me @ bettingonice@hotmail.co.uk registering your interest and which Celtic League Team you wish to represent.

2. You will then receive a link from me with the password to the tournament
Register an account at CDPoker via the link I have sent you. You do not have to deposit any money and will not even have to give credit or debit card details.

3. Turn up on the night – 29th October 2006 @ 19.00 hours and play.

Why am I doing this? Because I can and that’s it.

Here are some other benefits you will gain from just purely registering an account and turning up to represent your region:

I would like to inform you that CDPoker will host a 2k freeroll each Friday in October. The name of the freeroll is "Friday 2k match". The freeroll is open with no restrictions to all of your players* (UK and Irish players Only) from the start of this month. We will issue tokens to it on a daily basis -Sunday through Thursday. Players that will sign on Fridays will be eligible to play in the next Friday game or any other 2k matches thismonth.

I would also like to remind you that depositing players will be eligible toplay in the 1k new depositor's freeroll, which is held every Saturday, 13:00>EST. Simply put, CDPoker is offering your Celtic Leauge players a 3k weekend.

I will be operating a scoring systems to find out which region has the best Poker Players and there will be free cash prizes given out to at least the 10 ten finishers. If you have any questions then please don’t hestitate to ask me. bettingonice@hotmail.co.uk

Cheers

The Betting On Ice Team
http://bettingonice.blogspot.com/

Betting Summary

2006-10-09T04:21:00.000-07:00

Celtic League Betting Summary

The story so far........

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose
Ospreys v Blues – Win
Conn v Scarlets – Win
Ospreys v Borders – Win
Leinster v Blues – Lose
Blues v Glasgow – Win
Connacht v Leinster - Win
Edinburgh v Glasgow - Lose
Conn/Edinburgh Double - Win
Glasgow v Border - Win
Connacht v Ulster - Win
Glasgow/Ulster Double - Win

Dancing Cows Are Here Again!

2006-10-09T01:17:00.000-07:00

Recommendation: I actually expect Glasgow to romp this - Glasgow -6 @ Stan James. Nice

Glasgow 25 - 0 Borders

Recommendation: 10 points Ulster –6 @ Sporting Odds

Connacht 17 - 24 Ulster

We also got the double up - 100% weekend for the PR Betheads.

Another Wench?

2006-10-06T08:32:00.000-07:00

Ulster and Glasgow Outright Pays £20.86 to a £10.00 Stake! @ Williamhill.com

Glasgow v Borders Fri 6th October KO 7.30

2006-10-06T06:49:00.000-07:00

Glasgow v Borders

Well, it may just be me but I think the Glasgow Warriors are improving, they were desperately unlucky last week away in Edinburgh and went down at Murrayfield to an injury time drop goal and lets not forget the week before they stomped all over Munster. Fair enough, Cussiter is back for the Borders and he could make a difference but you need more than one guy to win a game for you.

This will be a classic situation of “Forwards decide who win the game, the backs decide by how much” – Rory Lamont comes back for the Warriors, a player who has been sorely missed.

Form: Glasgow Warriors have won just one of their last six matches: 24-13 over Munster at Hughenden on 15 September, whilst the Warriors have also won only one of their last six games against fellow Scottish opponents: 46-6 over Edinburgh at Firhill on 4 December 2005. Border Reivers have slipped to four successive defeats and have won just once on the road since last October: 20-8 in this equivalent fixture at Firhill last season. The Reivers did the league double over the Warriors last season, winning 24-13 at Netherdale and 20-8 at Firhill.

Glasgow Warriors: 15 Rory Lamont, 14 Hefin O'Hare, 13 Graeme Morrison, 12 Andrew Henderson, 11 Thom Evans, 10 Colin Gregor, 9 Graeme Beveridge, 8 John Beattie, 7 John Barclay, 6 Andrew Wilson, 5 Alastair Kellock (capt), 4 Andy Newman, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Fergus Thomson, 1 Justin Va'a.Replacement: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Kevin Tkachuk, 18 Dan Turner, 19 Donnie Macfadyen, 20 Sam Pinder, 21 Dan Parks, 22 Scott Barrow.

Border Reivers: 15 Calum MacRae, 14 Simon Danielli, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Garry Law, 11 Mark Robertson, 10 Steve Jones, 9 Chris Cusiter (capt), 8 Ross Beattie, 7 Scott Gray/Andy Miller, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Opeta Palepoi, 4 Craig Hamilton, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Gavin Kerr. Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Ed Kalman, 18 John Dalziel, 19 Scott Newlands, 20 Brendan McKerchar, 21 Scott Gray/Andy Miller, 22 Lee Kibble/Gregor Townsend

Recommendation: I actually expect Glasgow to romp this - Glasgow -6 @ Stan James. Nice

Connacht v Ulster - Friday 6th Oct 18.30KO

2006-10-06T05:03:00.000-07:00

Connacht v Ulster

The red hand gang are sending down a very strong squad to face their Irish bogey team, Connacht. Ulster, to be frank, were shite last week against Munster and missed vital kicks at vital times – which is most unlike them. Connacht ran a good Leinster outfit very close like week and the 31-16 score line doesn’t take into account that Leinster ran in two converted tries in injury time.

Ulster did try and play an attractive game against Munster and I believe that their backs are good enough to get through the decent Connacht defense, could be one on those games but I can also see Ulster gaining a bonus point victory if they get off to a good start, they will also climb back to the top of the league table should they win tonight. Trimble is on the wing, which is interesting but Ulster will be able to get the ball to him and that could devastating for the Conns.

Form: Connacht are winless in their last three Magners League encounters against the Scarlets, Edinburgh and Leinster. Connacht have won just one of their last 15 encounters against fellow Irish Provinces: 22-12 in this equivalent fixture last season. Champions Ulster have stuttered a little of late with two defeats in their last three matches. Away from home against fellow Irish sides the Ulstermen have won just once since September 2004: 20-17 over Munster at Cork on 3 December 2005. A win would take Ulster back to the top of the Magners League. Connacht ended a four match losing run against Ulster with their 22-12 win at the Sportsground on New Year’s Eve last season.

Connacht: 15 Daniel Riordan, 14 Matt Mostyn, 13 Darren Yapp, 12 Gavin Williams, 11 Keith Matthews, 10 Mark McHugh, 9 Chris Keane, 8 Colm Rigney, 7 Ray Ofisa, 6 John Muldoon, 5 Andrew Farley (c), 4 David Gannon, 3 Ray Hogan, 2 John Fogarty, 1 Brett Wilkinson.Replacements: 16 Adrian Flavin, 17 Brett Sturgess, 18 Michael Swift, 19 Matt Lacey, 20 Tom Tierney, 21 Paul Warwick, 22 Ted Robinson.

Ulster: 15 Bryn Cunningham, 14 Andrew Maxwell, 13 Kevin Maggs, 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 David Humphreys, 9 Isaac Boss, 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Stephen Ferris, 6 Neil Best, 5 Matt McCullough, 4 Justin Harrison, 3 Bryan Young, 2 Rory Best, 1 Justin Fitzpatrick.Replacements: 16 Paul Shields, 17 Declan Fitzpatrick, 18 Tim Barker, 19 Kieron Dawson, 20 Neil McMillan, 21 Kieran Campbell, 22 Scott Young.

Recommendation: 10 points Ulster –6 @ Sporting Odds

News Flash.......Falcons v Scarlets EDF Cup

2006-10-05T09:11:00.000-07:00

http://www.boylesports.com/betting/?gi=20&sltc=2867.1&sl=sltc

Boylesports.com have made the Scarlets favourites but are strangely offering them +3 in their handicap markets.

With thanks to Clinches for his eagle eyes.

Leinster v Munster - HEAD TO HEAD

2006-10-05T07:43:00.000-07:00

1 Marcus Horan V Ronan McCormack ADV MUNSTER

2 Frank Sheahan V Harry Vermaas ADV MUNSTER

3 Federico Puciariello V Will Green ADV EVEN

4 Donncha O'Callaghan V Trevor Hogan ADV MUNSTER

5 Paul O'Connell (capt) V Malcolm O'Kelly ADV MUNSTER

6 Alan Quinlan V Stephen Keogh ADV MUNSTER

7 David Wallace V Keith Gleeson ADV MUNSTER

8 Anthony Foley V Jamie Heaslip ADV LEINSTER

9 Peter Stringer V Chris Whitaker ADV EVEN

10 Ronan O'Gara V Felipe Contepomi ADV LEINSTER

11 Tomas O'Leary V Denis Hickie ADV LEINSTER

12 Trevor Halstead V Gordon D'arcy ADV LEINSTER

13 John Kelly V Brian O'Driscoll (capt) ADV LEINSTER

14 Ian Dowling V Shane Horgan ADV LEINSTER

15 Jeremy Manning V Girvan Dempsey ADV LEINSTER

Munster have the better pack, setpiece and cohesive team. Practically a home game for them as well.

Munster Fans Prepare To Make the Journey To Dublin.......

2006-10-04T02:53:00.000-07:00

More Intro-Provincial Build Up.......

2006-10-03T04:19:00.000-07:00

It’s the big one – Glasgow V Borders Friday 6th December 2006

Interpro rugby continues this weekend, and Glasgow host the Borders. This issure to be at most the third most important Magners League game of the weekend. This must be, oh, the 8th time these two giants of the game have locked horns down through the years and the rivalry is intense. There is nothing going on in Ireland this weekend to compare. Ulster travel to Connacht to try and regain some pride after the shameful loss to Munster last Saturday night. Despite their best efforts they were denied their justified win by a cheating homer ofHighland proportions. In the other game of the weekend Munster hitch up the haywagon, throw up a few kitchen chairs, for comfort; throw the babby and an open can of dog food into the shed and make the big trip up to the shmoke for the beating that awaits them at the hands of the imperious lords of European rugby.

The intensity of the rivalry that these matches engender, well the first two anyway, is phenomenal. Check out the many rugby message boards and you will see just how much the respective fan bases are looking forward to this weekend –think The Boks v The All Blacks; think England V Germany; think Celtic v Rangersand you’d be wasting your time. There hasn’t even been one supporter from anyof the four teams on any forum talking about what is happening this weekend.

Everyone is looking to Dublin (naturally, as it’s the most affluent place in theworld – ref: Fortune Magazine every week for the last 6 years). Munster returnto the scene of their most corrupt victory in their history when they bought their HEC semi-final victory over the just Princes with bungs of turnip filled envelopes that must have reached to the very top of the European administrative hierarchy. But Leinster aren’t bitter, they accepted this cruel episode of cheating and moved on. Just look at the philosophical nature of their passionate yet respectful fans. They are holding out their welcoming arms and looking forward to once again hosting their ignorant (and I use the word in the kindest way possible) countrymen in what is sure to be an imposing victory for the Mighty Men in Blue.

Last Weekends Betting

2006-10-02T04:20:00.000-07:00

So we got Leinster just about spot on but we lost out on the spread up in Scotland between a fantastically hard fought game involving the Gunners and the Warriors. Och well.

Thankfully we got the double up and a profit is a profit is a profit.

Leicester v Newport Gwent Dragons - EDF Cup

2006-10-02T04:15:00.000-07:00

Our little band of travellers had finally made it to the Venice of the Midlands and after securing some necesary supplies - fags and hip flask brandy and lobbing our bags off in the requisite B&B's we made our way to the Victory pub for a small sherry or two.

The pub was as ever a nice friendly place with a couple of decent beers on tap,
we numbered about 20 by now and watched in stony, passive silence as the blues shagged over the wasps. We made it to the ground and preceded to get the fecking beers in, we found it was quicker to go to the clubhouse and up the stairs than to actually wait in line outside. Much to our amusement we found that we couldn’t smoke anywhere in the ground and some of the Nazi stewards came in for a bit of gentle banter.

The game started and we adopted the position. Usual stuff really but we sung, cheered and shouted and my call of “that’s every time Ref” seemed, much to my delight, agitate a few of the Tiger fans with us. Quite why I don’t know as I was shouting it at restarts and lineouts. All good fun.The game ended in a bit of a blur and I actually didn’t realize that Kevin Morgan had scored another try for us until I got back home and was watching the highlights on Scrum V.

We stayed on the terraces for ages, chatting away and sharing the last of our hip flasks, it was all quite pleasant. The Dragons came and warmed down next to us and we treated them to 15 minutes of god-awful singing but we got them all smiling.We then lumbered into the clubhouse, which is where it all started to go a bit mad. There we were singing and dancing to the band and generally having a riot when all of the Leicester team, Martin Corry et al entered. They were all tied together in 3-legged race stlyee and to be honest – it was fucking mental. Corry (or as I like to call him now, Martin) got absolutely badgered on blue WKD and Andy Goode got totally destroyed. I have the pictures to prove this.

The band played on but it now consisted mainly of drunken fans and Leicester players and it was starting to get messy. I nipped outside to have a quick smoke and spotted the floodlights were still on so I had a quick walk up and down the pitch (well, running around like a drunken fool punching the air and added Welford road to my list of pitches.The bar was now closed in the club house and we decided to go to my mates pub in Narborough where we were promised as much free beer as we could handle, I was having difficulty in focusing and holding onto things by the time we decided to hit a late night curry house in Leicester. Bizarrely….There was a fight in the curry house between two members of staff which was hugely entertaining and rounded off the day superbly.

I have to say that the trip was one of the best ever – The Tigers fans were and are fantastic and we met so many really nice people, I really can’t adequately say here what they were like but I have no problem supporting Leicester and wishing them well in their endeavours for the future – they left that big an impression on me. It was great meeting the players as well, haven a drunken conversation with the current England captain was pretty cool to be honest and it was also good to meet Geordan Murphy, me lucky charms.

My only regret is pissing the bed at the B&B.

Wench - Get Me A Double.....

2006-09-29T04:05:00.000-07:00

Leinster Outright = 2/5 @ Stan James

Edinburgh Outright = 3/10 @ Sporting odds

Pays: £18.20 to a £10.00 stake.

Edinburgh v Glasgow Friday 29th October 2006

2006-09-29T03:42:00.000-07:00

Edinburgh v Glasgow Friday 29th October 2006

It’s Lyn Howell’s first game in charge of the Gunners tonight and as with most changes in management in Rugby the Edinburgh lads will be doing their utmost to impress their new coach.

The Gunners team is relatively unchanged tonight he Glasgow team for the inter-city clash is a much-changed one following the defeat to Cardiff Blues last week, with four changes in the backs (one positional) and a bench with only two personnel remaining.

In the backs, Sean Marsden wins his second start for the Warriors, this time at fullback, with Graeme Morrison rejoining the squad at outside centre, Andy Henderson reverting to inside centre and stand-off Colin Gregor getting his first start of the season.

Form: Edinburgh Gunners are unbeaten in their last three Magners League matches, and have won all four previous games they have played at Murrayfield in the league against fellow Scottish teams. Glasgow Warriors have won just one of their last five league encounters: 24-13 over Munster at Hughenden on 15 September. The Warriors have won just once away from home in any competition since April 2005: 26-20 also against Munster at Thomond Park on 18 February 2006. The last five matches between the two have gone in favour of the home side on the day, whilst the last Glasgow win in Edinburgh was 33-26 at Myreside in the Welsh-Scottish League on 15 September 2000.

Recommendation:

It's probably going to be very tight first half but at the end of the Day the gunners do have the better squad on paper, it's also at Murrayfield which is worth a score at least. Glasgow do have a lot of huff and puff but nothing I've seen so far can convince me that their backs can break through the line.

Edinburgh -9 at Sporting Odds

Connacht v Leinster Friday 29th October 2006

2006-09-29T02:34:00.000-07:00

Tricky Weekend…..

As already posted, it’s the Irish Inter-Provincial games this weekend which makes for difficult decisions, it’s also the Scottish derby up North. Hmmmm.

Leinster and Munster both have their full quota of international players back and rumour has it that the guy’s coming back are chomping at the bit at the chance of actually playing again.

Connacht v Leinster - Friday 29 September

Brian O'Driscoll returns to captain the Leinster side for his first competitive start of the season alongside the returning Shane Horgan - who he partners at centre - and Girvan Dempsey, for Leinster at Connacht in the Magners league on Friday.

Luke Fitzgerald retains his place on the wing, while both Gordon D'Arcy and Malcolm O'Kelly have been named on a strong-looking bench which includes ex-Connacht duo Ronan McCormack and Bernard Jackman

Form: Mark McHugh salvaged a 22-all draw for Connacht last Friday night against Edinburgh with a superb 87th minute penalty goal from 40 metres out. This game is Connacht’s 7th home game in their last eight matches and they are due to play two more gamesat the Sportsground before this current home run ends! Leinster’s previous six league games have gone; won, lost, won, lost, won, lost, but away from home they have won just once in their last four trips: 31-8 at Edinburgh on 26 May.

Recommendation:

As I've previously mentioned lots of times, Conn are a notoriously good and brave side at home but I was impressed with Leinster last weekend at the Scarlets and having BOD, their talisman back in the side only pushes more more towards a decent Leinster win. William Hill are offering a converted score to Conn so I'm taking Leinster at -7

What You Need to Beat the Bookies!

2006-09-28T07:08:00.000-07:00

You need accounts – and lots of them, you also need a shortcut to http://www.oddschecker.com/ on your desktop. If you are going to take your betting seriously you need to open as many accounts as you can and manage them successfully.

Why? Because, especially when they first announce their odds on the day of a game you can get wild fluctuations in prices before they all settle and bring themselves slightly more into line. You can see for yourself on www.oddschecker.com Sometimes, and I don’t jest, you can get upwards of 7 points on a handicap than another bookmaker is offering and that is just to bloody good to pass up.

Here’s a quick list of accounts you should have and why:

William Hill = It’s ultra fast and by far the best navigable site on the market, their Rugby cappers really do know their stuff and I sometimes use them as a bench mark, especially when comparing odds. That’s why I have had them sponsor the blog – you can visit them for yourself at the bottom of the page.

Paddy Power = Fantastic site, not such as easy navigable site and the colours are not easy on the eye but their capper is so bias in favour of Irish teams it really isn’t funny, well it is if you know what I mean. You have to have these guys.

VC Bet (Victor Chandler) = Another of my all time favourites, good enough site but their capper is pretty average – they also tend to be on the end the fluctuation market and you can grab yourself bonus points on the cap if you visit early enough on a Friday or Saturday.

Boyle Sports = What these guy’s know about Rugby you could write on the back of a postage stamp, and still have space for Andy Robinson’s team talk - they are great and I love them.

Other Accounts you should have:

SportingOdds.com
Ladbrokes.com
StanJames.com

If you intend to win money by following this blog – you MUST have the accounts I’ve suggested as if we think that the +10 VC Bet are offering on a certain game is a steal and your account with Ladbrokes is only offering +7 – you’re cheating yourself out of a score.

Do it now.

Inter Pro Build Up.....

2006-09-28T03:43:00.000-07:00

It’s Interpro Time!

This is what celtic rugby is all about – the annual renewal of provincial rugby’s oldest rivalries. This weekend sees the mighty Gringos travel south on a raid to sack the Turnips. There’ll be buckets of turnip soup available in the wilds of the north next week. Also, Connacht, struggling with uncontrollable nose bleeds from the unprecedented altitude they’ve ascended, will host the Princes of European rugby in the imposingly impressive bit of old field that isthe Galway dog track.

On Friday evening, before the crowds arrive for the race meeting, Leinster will be hoping to get their season off the ground when they face a Connacht team thatwill be reasonably confident following their recent run of good form. Leinster have most of their international stars available and surely they will play somepart in the game against the Mountainy Men. The one positive about the return of the stars, is that Cheika won’t be able to over play his raft of mates that are currently infecting the Leinster game – the fat useless bastards.

On Saturday, Munster are going to be humped.

Updated Betting Summary - September 2006

2006-09-25T02:35:00.000-07:00

September Celtic League Betting Summary – All Stakes £10.00

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose - £10.00

Ospreys v Blues – Win - £3.85

Conn v Scarlets – Win + £15.24

Ospreys v Borders – Win + £24.33

Leinster v Blues – Lost + £14.33

Blues v Glasgow – Win + £33.42

Conn v Leinster - Win + £42.52

Edinburgh v Glasgow - lose + £32.52

Leinster/Edinburgh double - Win £50.62

Not a bad profit, all things considered.

Dancing Cows! Young and Sweet Only Seventeen....

2006-09-25T01:14:00.000-07:00

Friday night and the lights are low:

Recommendation: 10 Points Cardiff -10 @ 5/6 Skybet.com

Back to winning ways, folks.

Jokes....

2006-09-22T08:29:00.000-07:00

Jeremy Guscott

Jeremy Guscott was going to Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyndrobwyllandysylioggogogoch R.F.C.to speak at a gentlemen's evening. As he was driving up, he decided to learn how to say the rugby club's name and get a massive round of applause. As he arrived he called into a café, and said to the waitress "Can you tell me where I am, but speak very slowly?" The waitress, puckered up her lips and said "Burrrrr gerrrrrrr king"

The Pope

On a tour of Wales, the Pope took a couple of days off his Itinerary to visit the West coast near Aberystwyth on an impromptu sightseeing trip.
His 4X4 Popemobile was driving along the golden sands when there was an enormous commotion heard just off the headland. They rushed to see what it was and upon approaching the scene the Pope noticed just outside the surf, a hapless man wearing an English Rugby jersey, struggling frantically to free himself from the jaws of a twenty foot shark.
At that moment a speedboat containing three men wearing Welsh Rugby Shirts roared into view from around the point. Spontaneously, one of the men took aim and fired a harpoon into the shark's ribs, immobilising it instantly. The other two reached out and pulled the Englishman from the water and then, using long clubs, beat the shark to death.
They bundled the bleeding, semi conscious man into the speed boat along with the dead shark and then prepared for a hasty retreat, when they heard frantic shouting from the shore. It was of course the Pope, and he summoned them to the beach.
Upon them reaching the shore the Pope went into raptures about the rescue and said, "I give you my blessing for your brave actions. I had heard that there were some racist xenophobic people trying to divide Wales and England, but now I have seen with my own eyes this is not true. I can see that your society is a truly enlightened example of racial harmony and could serve as a model on which other nations could follow.
"He blessed them all and drove off in a cloud of dust. As he departed, the harpoonist asked the others, "Who was that???!"
"That," one answered, "was his Holiness the Pope. He is in direct contact with God and has access to all God's wisdom."
"Well," the harpoonist replied, "he knows nowt about shark hunting.
How's that bait holding up or do we need to get another one?"

Ref!

A rugby referee died and went to heaven. Stopped by St Peter at the gates he was told that only brave people who had performed heroic deeds and had the courage of their convictions could enter. If he could describe a situation in his life where he had shown these characteristics, he would be allowed in. "Well," said the ref, "I was controlling a game between Wales and England in Cardiff. Wales were two points ahead with a minute to go. Ben Cohen made a break, passed inside to Martin Johnson. Johnson was driven on by his forwards, before he passed out to Lawrence Dallaglio who went over in the corner. But Dallaglio dropped the ball before he could ground it. As England were clearly the better side all game, I ruled that he had got it down and awarded the try."
"OK, that was fairly brave of you, but I will have to check it in the book," said Peter, before disappearing to look it up. When he came back he said: "Sorry, there's no record of this. Can you help me to trace it? When did all this happen?"
The ref looked at his watch and replied, "45 seconds ago."

Ugly?

Madonna, Tom Thumb and Quasimodo were playing in the woods one day, when out of the blue Madonna shouts: I'm the prettiest girl in the world.. Tom Thumb in turn shouts out: I'm the smallest man in the world, and not to be outdone, Quasimodo shouts: Well I'm the ugliest man in the world. To be absolutely sure they decide to go and visit the witch in the woods and her crystal ball. Madonna goes in first. Five minutes later she comes out dancing and singing and tells the others: It's true, I am the prettiest of them all. Tom Thumb goes in next... he comes out five minutes later, jumping up and down, waving his arms in the air: Yippee he shouts, I'm the smallest man in the world. Quasimodo then goes in for the final verdict. Five minutes later he comes out, head bowed and tearful. Madonna and Tom Thumb, a bit concerned, ask what happened. Quasimodo replies: Who the hell is Brian Moore?

Handicap League Betting - Newport Gwent Dragons

2006-09-22T04:15:00.000-07:00

Handicap League Betting

Newport Gwent Dragons + 28 Points 9/1

Now, I’m liking this. It doesn’t look like Skybet have updated their odds and I’ve just checked this morning and they are still offering the bet. The Dragons are no where near as bad as everyone thought them to be and if they win a winnable game up in Borders tonight then this bet looks all the more tasty.

Last year we finished 30 points behind the eventual winners, Ulster. We have a stronger team, and more importantly, a better attitude than last year and if we pick up the odd losing bonus points away and take advantage of us not having to commit teams to the HEC like our league counterparts have to then I can see this bet running very close.

9/1 is huge.

Gratuitous Picture Of Girl With Massive Jugs

2006-09-22T02:15:00.000-07:00

Cardiff Blues v Glasgow Warriors - Friday 22nd September KO 6.40PM

2006-09-22T01:52:00.000-07:00

Cardiff Blues v Glasgow Warriors - Friday 22nd September KO 6.40PM

Only 10 points eh?

Well, it’s not as though we haven’t been stung by the handicaps so far this season but to be honest, Blues should beat the Warriors convincingly. The Warriors had a great win against the second string Turnipstanis last week and that should bolster them but to be honest, an Iceland XV could beat the Munster Reserves at the moment.

The Blues are notoriously slow starters and now need to lift their game to another level if they are going to compete for honours. Their first three matches have contained an unbelievable amount of handling errors and the back line moves were not working, I’m willing to bet that tonight will see an improved performance. Don’t forget, they were very unlucky to lose against a full strength Ospreys team at the Liberty and just got out edged out against Leinster in an always tricky away game.

Form: Cardiff Blues have slipped to successive defeats away at the Ospreys and Leinster. However, at home they have set a new Blues record with six wins in a row since losing to Edinburgh at the Arms Park on 27 January. Glasgow Warriors ended a three match losing streak with a 24-13 victory over Munster at Hughenden on Friday. The Warriors have not won successive league games since beating Connacht and Edinburgh last November-December. Glasgow Warriors have won just one of their last ten encounters against Welsh opponents since April 2005: 17-10 over the Scarlets at Firhill on 12 May. Glasgow have made eight previous visits to the Arms Park for a
competition match and have won just once: 44-35 in the League on 31 August 2002

Cardiff Blues: 15 Ben Blair, 14 Mosese Luveitasau, 13 Tom Riley, 12 Tom Shanklin, 11 Chris Czekaj, 10 Nicky Robinson, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Xavier Rush (Capt), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Scott Morgan, 5 Robert Sidoli, 4 Deiniol Jones, 3 Toufaao Filise, 2 T Rhys Thomas, 1 Gethin Jenkins.Replacements: 16 John Yapp, 17 Gareth Williams, 18 James Goode, 19 Mark Lewis, 20 Ed Fairhurst, 21 Nick Macleod, 22 Dai Flannigan.

Glasgow: 15 Francisco Leonelli, 14 Hefin O'Hare, 13 Andrew Henderson, 12 Scott Barrow, 11 Thom Evans, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Graeme Beveridge, 8 John Beattie, 7 John Barclay, 6 Andrew Wilson, 5 Alastair Kellock, 4 Andy Newman, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Fergus Thomson, 1 Justin Va'a.Replacements: 16 Eric Milligan, 17 Kevin Tkachuk, 18 Dan Turner, 19 Calum Forrester, 20 Sam Pinder, 21 Colin Gregor, 22 Sean Marsden.Date: Friday, September 22

Recommendation: 10 Points Cardiff -10 @ 5/6 Skybet.com

Profile on....Glasgow Warriors

2006-09-18T04:38:00.000-07:00

GLASGOW SEE POSITIVE ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT

Showing typical perception, new Glasgow Head coach Sean Leakingline defiantly announced that the only way is up after Glasgow finished bottom of the heap in last year’s league.

He welcomed the team’s return to Hughenden (previous coach Hugh Campbell lost his job after leaking to the press that the players called it their Coliseum – because it was a f**king ruin). “We know that the blueprint for success for Scottish teams has been signposted by our cousins across the Irish Sea, so I was very pleased that as we try to emulate Munster and the like, we’re back on a pitch only fit to plough and plant potatoes”

Glasgow have had a problem with attracting the crowds recently, and Sean wants to appeal to a new audience, particular younger supporters – girls even. Hence his bold step in signing former boyband singer Thom Evans to add to the pretty boy backline.

The area of the team that really needed fixing was up front, and Sean lost no time in landing his biggest catch – in more ways than one – Justin Va’a. Sean didn’t realise that the 21 stone prop had already played for Samoa, because Sean had a Scots granny from Stornoway lined up for him. Sean strenuously denied that he only discovered his own granny from there after the records office on the island was destroyed by fire.

Glasgow showed that they were in good hands on the first night of the season, racing to a 20 point lead in as many minutes against an under strength Dragons side, and then spending the next 60 throwing it away.

This left Glasgow fans (there are still a few) asking “Why?”

Are we so pish?
Do we continuously under-achieve?
Do what’s left of us bother coming back?
Would anyone be interested in buying this outfit?

This year’s tips

Avoid betting on them when Dan Parks is playing
Only bet on them when it is against all the odds that they will win (see above rule also)

UPDATE: Glasgow beat Cousin Feckers by 24-13

Leinster v Cardiff Blues - Saturday 15th September 2006 KO 7.30pm

2006-09-16T08:15:00.000-07:00

Leinster v Cardiff Blues - Saturday 15th September KO 7.30pm

Another tricky one here, Leinster aren’t at full strength and the Blues are recovering after their exertions against the Ospreys, who notably went on to a convincing win against the Borders last night. Leinster have got a couple of their Irish stars back, Hickie for example who will add something to their back line. The Blues, very importantly I think, have their 3rd choice hooker playing tonight I’ve been doing a little trawling the Fans forums and the Leinster fans are quietly confident but this was causing a little consternation on the Blues site:

"To be honest i have no idea why hes done it. My thoughts though are, Dia was in the press over here saying he wanted to win two out of the three games that opened the season. I personally think he always targeted the first game and the Os game to win and never had any intention of going for the Leinster game. If thats not the case maybe with the injuries he has written it off and decided not to risk the players to injury when they aint going to win"

This kind of seals the deal for me. Dai is resting players for the EDF cup and the HEC

Form: Leinster’s season began last weekend with a 14-20 defeat at Edinburgh, but at home Leinster have won seven in a row in all competitions at three different grounds. Cardiff are playing away to the Ospreys on Wednesday evening and have not won in Ireland since an 18-8 victory at Connacht on 22 January 2005. Both encounters between the two teams last season were won by the home side on the day.

Leinster: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Luke Fitzgerald, 13 Kieran Lewis, 12 Michael Berne, 11 Denis Hickie, 10 Felipe Contepomi (c), 9 Chris Whitaker, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Niall Ronan, 6 Stephen Keogh, 5 Owen Finegan, 4 Adam Byrnes, 3 Will Green, 2 Harry Vermaas, 1 Ronan McCormack.Replacements: 16 Reggie Corrigan, 17 Bernard Jackman, 18 Devin Toner, 19 Keith Gleeson, 20 Guy Easterby, 21 Christian Warner, 22 Gary Brown.

Cardiff Blues: 15 Ben Blair, 14 Chris Czekaj, 13 Tom Riley, 12 Marc Stcherbina, 11 Mosese Luveitasau, 10 Nick Macleod, 9 Wayne Evans, 8 Xavier Rush (c), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Mark Lewis, 5 James Goode, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Gary Powell, 2 Gareth Williams, 1 John Yapp.Replacements: 16 Taufaao Felise, 17 Ross Johnson, 18 Robert Sidoli, 19 Scott Morgan, 20 Ed Fairhurst, 21 David Flanagan

Date: Saturday, September 16Kick-off: 19:30 (18:30 GMT)Venue: DonnybrookReferee: Andy Macpherson (Scotland)

This ref is scottish and therefore a massive homer.

Recommendation: With love to VC Bet for the minus 7 they are giving to Leinster - Love you Guy's. 10 Pts Leinster -7

Oh My God - The Cows Are Going Mental!

2006-09-15T12:53:00.000-07:00

Recommendation: 10 Pts Ospreys -6 at Sporting odds.com

Ospreys 30-13 Borders

Marlene!........ get the motor

Let the Cows Dance!!

2006-09-15T12:26:00.000-07:00

VC Bet, in our opinion are offering a very generous 6 points to the Scarlets. 10Pts Bet.

Scarlets beat the spread. Connacht 15 - 37 Scarlets

Friday Afternoon NEWSFLASH

2006-09-15T08:15:00.000-07:00

William Hill.com are offering -5 on the Ospreys.

What? do they know that we don't? I've done a bit of juggling and will be aiming to plump for Hills generous offer - Will do a bit of a quick look to see if anything is remiss about the Sprays.

Edit;

All I've found is that the Borders 1st choice kicker is out of the game tonight

Ospreys v Borderererers Friday 15th September KO 7.10pm

2006-09-15T06:12:00.000-07:00

Ospreys v Borderererers Friday 15th September KO 7.10pm

Ospreys v Bordererererers

Well, the Sprays have been, to put it politely, utter shite since their opening game of the season against Edinburgh. The pretty boys have failed to shine (hair gel excepted) and none of the new faces have gelled (insert hair pun here). That said, they have a great squad on paper and I really can’t believe that Sporting Odds are only giving them a –6 cap. They could quite easily put a bucketload on the Bordererereres tonight and they owe it to themselves, the management and more importantly the fans. There are no prima donnas on the team tonight – I fully expect a much better performance

Preview

Border Reivers' head coach Steve Bates has made only two changes to the team that started last Saturday's game against Munster for the Magners League match against the Ospreys on Friday.

Fullback Calum MacRae misses his first competitive appearance in 16 games due to a thigh strain which he suffered during the narrow 9-8 defeat.
Steve Jones fills the full-back berth, and Gregor Townsend returns to the starting line-up after being selected on the bench last week due to a stomach bug.
"We really improved our performance against Munster, we really could have won that game, but our focus all week has been entirely on tomorrow's game against The Ospreys which is going to be another great opportunity to develop our team play," said Bates.
As expected, the Ospreys have changed almost their entire team for the trip, and are still awaiting tests to find out which of the battered troops are ready to take a place on the bench.
Shaun Connor and James Hook line up at 10 and 12 respectively, with Gavin Henson almost certain to sit out the game completely.
"We were pleased with what was a much improved team performance on Wednesday night, but the players are pretty battered and bruised after a physical encounter," said assistant coach Sean Holley.
"Needless to say we have a strong squad this year and we are looking forward to seeing a number of different combinations on show against the Borders.

"The Borders are continuing to evolve into a threatening team and will be looking for their first win of the season. "Our players will need to perform to the best of their ability to gain any advantage over them. "Although it has physically been a difficult week the mood in our camp remains excellent. There is a strong work ethic amongst the boys and a serious intent to perform in this match."

Form:

The Ospreys won on Wednesday evening against the Blues, and have won their last five matches they have played against Scottish opposition. Border Reivers have won just once in their last nine outings: 43-5 at home to Newport Gwent Dragons on 26 May, whilst the Reivers have not won on the road since a 20-8 victory at Glasgow on 3 March. Border Reivers have never won a match in Wales in 17 previous trips in all competitions. The Ospreys have won four of the six previous meetings they have had with the Reivers, although both encounters last season were won by the home side on the day.

Ospreys: 15 Stefan Terblanche, 14 Richard Mustoe, 13 Tal Selley, 12 James Hook, 11 Jonny Vaughton, 10 Shaun Connor, 9 Martin Roberts, 8 Andy Lloyd, 7 Steve Tandy, 6 Lee Beach, 5 Lyndon Bateman, 4 Alun Wyn Jones, 3 Andrew Millward, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Paul James (c), Replacements: 16 Barry Williams, 17 Cai Griffiths, 18 Mike Powell. The rest of the replacements bench will be finalised just ahead of the match

Border Reivers: 15 Steve Jones, 14 Garry Law, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Ben MacDougall, 11 Mark Robertson, 10 Gregor Townsend, 9 Chris Cusiter (c), 8 Ross Beattie, 7 Scott Gray, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Craig Hamilton, 4 Opeta Palepoi, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Gavin Kerr.Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Ed Kalman, 18 Stuart Grimes, 19 Andy Miller, 20 Brendan McKerchar, 21 Simon Danielli, 22 Dougie Flockhart.

Date: Friday, September 15Kick-off: 19:10 (18:10 GMT)Venue: Liberty StadiumReferee: David Keane (Ireland)Touch judges: David Bodilly, Neil Howells

Recommendation: 10 Pts Ospreys -6 at Sporting odds.com

Spotlight on Munster RUFC

2006-09-15T05:26:00.000-07:00

Munster Mooses

Killian Keane, a long time hero of Munster rugby, said recently, the 2006/07 season is make or break for Munster. He acknowledged that the previous season was a particularly weak one in European rugby terms and that Munster only coming third in the Celtic League showed a distinct lack of ambition amongst the players and all to prevalent weaknesses in the abilities of the coach.

He did concede though, that Munster had recruited possibly the best youngout-half in Europe during the off-season, Eoghan Hickey, pinching him from under the noses of their arch rivals, Leinster. Also back in the Munster fold is Brian O’Meara, so things are looking up for the development of a Munster backline, so often criticised for playing like Scotland.

Although critical of Munster’s play the previous season, Keane, a die-hard Munster bandwagoner, of course was bullish about the upcoming season. He predicted that Munster would improve their Magners League position and that if Declan Kidney did manage to get across to his players that rugby also involved running with the ball then they could even win the bloody thing – yeehaa!Quite, Killian!

Predictions:

Magners League – 2nd
Rose of Tralee – Ronan O’Gara to make the top 3.

Connacht v Scarlets - Friday 15th September KO 18.30

2006-09-15T04:48:00.000-07:00

Connacht v Scarlets - Friday 15th September KO 18.30

Blimey this is a hard one to call, Conn are on fire at the moment and deserve their high placing in the Magners League. Scarlets on the other hand are coming off the back of a bruising encounter with the Gwent Dragons.

There’s no doubt about it, this is going to be another closely contested and hard fought game, whether Scarlets will be up for another one so soon after the Dragons game has yet to be seen but I like some of the changes they have made to their squad with a few players returning to their favoured positions. Conn are to be congratulated on their win against the Sprays last week but as seen on Wednesday, the Sprays are in utter dire form. Conn certainly won’t be facing a team of pretty boys with no warm up games under their belts.

Preview:
For the second game running the Scarlets have named a side showing five changes to the previous starting line-up.

There are also two positional changes with captain Simon Easterby moving to the openside to allow James Bater a start on the blindside while Matthew Watkins moves back to his preferred position of centre as Dafydd James returns to the left wing.

Elsewhere, Clive Stuart-Smith gets a run-out at scrum-half and Darren Daniel at fly-half while Phil John replaces Iestyn Thomas at loose-head prop and Adam Jones takes over from Lou Reed in the second row.

Nathan Thomas comes in for Alix Popham at number eight.
There's also a welcome return to Wales winger Mark Jones on the bench.
"We are aware of the challenge we face against Connacht," said Scarlets Director of Rugby Phil Davies. "They beat the Ospreys last weekend and have won two from two so are obviously in top form. We have great respect for them. They are the type of side who never give up."
Meanwhile, Connacht have unsurprisingly announced the same starting side which defeated the Ospreys last week.

There is one change on the bench though, with centre John Hearty coming into the side in place of Darren Yapp, who was troubled during the week by a leg injury.
Coach Michael Bradley is hoping that the Connacht fans can reproduce the atmosphere in which the Ospreys fell to defeat last week.
"The quality of the Connacht support has always been excellent, what we need is more of them to increase the volume," said Bradley.

"It was superb on Friday night the way the supporters got right behind the side, especially in the second-half when the game was hanging in the balance.
"That backing has to be worth a score or two. Let's hope we can build on the Friday night experience and the fan base will continue to grow in the coming weeks."

Form:

Connacht have made the perfect start to the new season with back to back wins against the Reivers and the Ospreys. Added to this the Galwaymen also won the last game of the 2005-06 season against Glasgow, with this current run representing the best winning sequence Connacht have achieved in the league since 2002/03. Llanelli Scarlets won their second match in four days at Newport last night and are going for three wins in a row in the competition for the first time since the turn of the year. The Scarlets have not won in Ireland since an 18-11 victory against Connacht at Athlone in February 2005. The Scarlets have the slight edge in previous league meetings between the two, gaining three wins to Connacht’s two with one match drawn.

Recommendation:

VC Bet, in our opinion are offering a very generous 6 points to the Scarlets. 10Pts Bet.

Spotlight on Leinster RUFC.......

2006-09-14T08:04:00.000-07:00

The Leinster Loins

After a total disaster last season in which they failed to win a single piece of silverware, Michael Cheika’s team have to justify the complete trust and faith shown in them by their loyal band of ladyboy fans. As usual, the hype and expectation has reached Walian levels with little to no chance of it abating.

The new superstar of Leinster rugby, Luke Fitzgerald – cousin of an infamous Leinster alikadooess – has already set the ladyboy bandwagon into a frenzied overdrive. His couple of touches in the first game of the season, against themighty Edinburgh, showed that he really knows where the line is, the touch line that is. There have been a few changes to the playing personnel for this season.

Out have gone some legends – Emmett Byrne (Setanta), James Norton (Superquinn), Brian O’Meara (Munster) – and some bellends. Leinster have also recruited heavily, and I mean very heavily, in the form of Owen Finnegan. Also new to the ranks are a couple of Turnipstanis, Stephen Keogh and Trevor Hogan. We wish them well in their new country and in their endeavours to learn the language.

Being Leinster, they are expected to run riot in both The Magners League and TheHeineken Cup this year, and I for one will expect nothing less than total, and I mean complete and total loike, domination of world rugby. In fact, I expectLeinster to be chosen to represent Ireland at the Rugby World Cup next year,even though they have only 3 Irish players.

Predictions:

Magners League – Winners
Heineken Cup – Winners
Eurovision Song Contest – Winners

Ospreys 18 - 16 Cardiff Blues LET THE COWS DANCE

2006-09-14T00:39:00.000-07:00

Recommendation: 10 pts Ospreys to win outright 8/13 @ www.sportingodds.com

Well, after what was a dire, dire, dire game we have our first winner. It has to be said we were lucky in the end but a win is a win is a win.

Report:

The Ospreys beat Cardiff Blues 18-16 at Liberty Stadium in Swansea on Wednesday night. Three tries to pone sounds comfortable but it took a last-minute try to win the dramatic match.
Nick Robinson had scored all the Blues' points and had done so in all four possible ways but it was his poor kick that opened up the way for the winning try by replacement Richie Pugh.

It was a harsh match with all the passion of a derby between neighbouring Welsh sides. There were many stoppages for injuries and when the Blues ran out of suitably trained front-row players the scrums became uncontested.

The Ospreys scored early when Shane Williams started and then scored. He threw in quickly from touch to Lee Byrne and then was on hand to get the ball back when the fullback was tackled and race over for the try on the right. There was every appearance of a knock-on which seemed to stop the Blues' defenders in the expectation of a whistle.

After Robinson had goaled a penalty he moved the Blues into the lead. Like Shane Williams he started and finished the move. He chipped diagonally, wing Mosese Luveitasau gathered and passed back to his flyhalf, and Robinson scored and converted. 10-5 to the Blues.

Justin Marshall did much to dictate the game for the Ospreys, keeping his side well inside the Blues territory. From a five-metre scrum, when the Blues' hooker Rhys Thomas was off injured, big Ryan Jones drove over for the try which levelled the scores. 10-10.

Just before half-time Robinson kicked the first of his dropped goals to make the score 13--10 to the Blues at the break.

The Ospreys had two chances for tries in the second half, the first when Shane Williams counterattacked in characteristic fashion only for Sonny Parker to knock on when a try seemed certain and the second when Williams just failed to gather the ball with a try there for the taking.

Gavin Henson, who had an off day with the boot, goaled a penalty to make the score 13-all, but, with seven minutes to play, Robinson kicked a long drop goal and seemed to have won the match for his side till Pugh caught his poor kick and scored the winner a minute from time.

Scorers:
For Ospreys:Tries: Shane Williams, Ryan Jones, Pugh. Pen: Henson
For Cardiff Blues:Try: Robinson.Con: Robinson.Pens: Robinson.Drops: Robinson 2

Meet the PR Betheads Team - Leinster Lion

2006-09-13T08:23:00.000-07:00

Name: Leinster Lion

Location: Ireland

Supports: Leinster and Ireland

Favourite Food: Fishfingers

Favourite Drink: Milky Milky

Favourite Film: 101 Dalmations

Leinster Lion has never played rugby to a high level, is not very good at it, and his knowledge and ramblings on any rugby, and in particular the Magners League, carry no weight what so ever. All his opinions on rugby are gathered from various online forums and the excellent Newstalk106 radio station, and he reiterates them as his own. His work in IT means he only occassionally has a life outside of the internet, but thankfully those moments are rare. Leinster Lion owns a part share in a flourishing false moustache business and what with all the orders coming in from Limerick things are looking very rosey indeed. Leinster Lion once told Crash that if you get a crab drunk it would walk in a straight line. Most impressive

Ospreys v Cardiff Blues

2006-09-13T07:33:00.000-07:00

Ospreys v Cardiff Blues Wednesday 13th September KO 7.35pm

How difficult is this one to call? Very, everyone shouted. There’s no value to be had at all on this game so I’m just going to go for the home win. The Ospreys had a sputtering home win against the Gunners and then, quite embarrassingly, lost to Connacht away in Ireland. The Osprey’s squad is jam packed full of stars and they have yet to gel, it could be tonight.

The Blues (spit) on the other hand have only played on game and were quite unconvincing against a very under strength Munster team, that Munster team only narrowly avoid a loss at home to the Borderererereres. This could be a feisty affair but we do expect the home team to win.

Form: The Ospreys lost 10-15 in Galway last Friday but at Liberty Stadium they have lost just once in 2006: 17-19 to Ulster on 26 May. The Swansea based side beat the Scarlets 25-13 at Liberty Stadium the last time they faced a fellow Welsh District to end a four game losing run against teams from Wales. Cardiff Blues had a bye week last weekend and have won their only match so far: 22-13 at home to Munster on 1 September. The Blues have lost their last two away games at Ulster and Munster but have beaten fellow Welsh Districts in five of their last six such encounters. The last four clashes between these two sides have resulted in a win for the home team on the day.

Ospreys: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Nikki Walker, 13 Sonny Parker, 12 Andrew Bishop, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Gavin Henson, 9 Justin Marshall, 8 Ryan Jones, 7 Jonathan Thomas, 6 Andy Lloyd, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Brent Cockbain, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Duncan Jones (c). Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17 Paul James, 18 Lyndon Bateman, 19 Alun Wyn Jones, 20 Richard Pugh, 21 James Hook, 22 Stefan Terblanche.

Cardiff Blues (spit): 15 Rhys Williams, 14 Chris Czekaj, 13 Tom Shanklin, 12 Marc Stcherbina, 11 Mosese Luveitasau, 10 Nick Robinson, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Xavier Rush (C), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Scott Morgan, 5 Rob Sidoli, 4 Deiniol Jones, 3 Tufaao Filise, 2 T Rhys Thomas, 1 Gethin Jenkins.Replacements: 16 Gary Powell, 17 Duane Goodfield, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Robin Sowden-Taylor, 20 Wayne Evans, 21 Nick Macleod, 22 Tom Riley.

Date: Wednesday, September 13Kick-off: 19:35 (18:35 GMT)Venue: Liberty Stadium Referee: Nigel Owens (WRU)Touch Judges: Hugh Watkins (WRU), James Jones (WRU)

Recommendation: 10 pts Ospreys to win outright 8/13 @ www.sportingodds.com

Meet the PR BetHeads Team - Crash

2006-09-13T07:05:00.000-07:00

Name: Crash

Supports: Ireland and Leinster

Location: Ireland, surprisingly

Favourite Food: Biscuits

Favourite Drink: Skinny Mochachino Latte – with sprinkles.

Favourite Film: The Crying Game

Crash has given up his job to go gambling full time, the blackberry season was coming to an end anyway. Crash has a pathological fear of horses. He loves his girlfriend very much and they spend much of their free time rowing up and down the Liffey, they hope to represent Ireland at the next Olympics in Bejing.

Crash is a vital member of the team and can always be relied on to give just and true opinions with reference to betting on the Celtic League.

Dragons 22-23 Scarlets

2006-09-13T05:19:00.000-07:00

So the bet lost - The -1 on the Hadicap was bang on, resulting in a draw for us.

As an aside, I am a Newport Gwent Dragons fan and I am totally gutted and exhausted by the result. God that was a painful night and since I drowned my sorrows in Guiness last night I am suffering here today at work:

Match Report:

A DEVASTATING three-try salvo in six minutes swung this rousing Magners League encounter decisively the way of the Scarlets.They were 16-3 down at half-time after sustaining a right old battering from a Dragons side breathing fire.But the Scarlets caught the Gwent region napping at the start of the second half with Darren Daniel, Gavin Evans and Ceiron Thomas all crossing.Ceri Sweeney briefly regained the lead for the Dragons with a double penalty strike before Stephen Jones hit back to move the Scarlets to second in the table behind champions Ulster.The Dragons picked up a losing bonus point to climb three places to third, but will be bitterly disappointed at letting this one slip after being so dominant before the break.It was a riveting encounter with the only disappointment being a crowd of 5,574.

Scarlets made their intentions clear from the opening scrum of the match when outside-half Jones dodged past Sweeney.They were pulled back - harshly - for an alleged forward pass but the move emphasised they were prepared to attack the channel which they had expected to be filled by former player Mike Hercus.However, Dragons coach Paul Turner had left the United States international out knowing that the Scarlets would like to expose his defensive limitations.But the debt-ridden West Wales region had made other plans - they knew Hercus wasn't playing hours before the Dragons team became public knowledge.Sweeney switched from inside centre to outside-half with youngster Ashley Smith coming in at No 12.Turner made four changes, one positional, from the side beaten 32-25 in a thriller by league champions Ulster last weekend.Wales cap Steve Jones replaced Ben Daly at hooker back from neck trouble and Joe Bearman stepped into the back row for the injured Nic Fitisemanu.Sweeney fired them into the lead with a 10th-minute penalty after the Scarlets were caught offside following a line-out.Jones levelled matters at the quarter of an hour mark, the Dragons penalised for encroaching. Home prop Adam Black had Scarlets tighthead Deacon Manu tied up in knots and the New Zealander was penalised for collapsing the scrum.Worse was to follow for the Scarlets, young lock Lou Reed being sin-binned for pulling down a ferocious driving maul from the Dragons.Sweeney just failed to punish them with a long-range penalty, but the Dragons were fired up.Scarlets coach Phil Davies had made five changes from the XV that beat Glasgow last weekend.Ceiron Thomas came in for Martyn Thomas at full-back, Matthew Watkins for Dafydd James at wing, Manu for John Davies at tight-head, Easterby for Inoke Afeaki at blindside flanker and Alix Popham for Nathan Thomas at No 8.They suffered another blow when centre Regan King went off with blood streaming from his face in the 27th minute.And the Dragons fans went wild with joy following a stunning strike two minutes later.Acting captain Colin Charvishad a major part in it.He made the initial incursion before throwing a super pass to Sweeney. The Dragons orchestrator found Nathan Brew with a cut-out pass and the centre sprinted 25m before stretching for the touchdown when challenged. Sweeney converted from wide out and they were 10-3 up.Phil Davies showed his ruthless side by hauling suspect scrummager Manu off in the 37th minute, sending veteran John Davies on to shore it up.Sweeney landed a monster penalty and they led by 10 points.

The ferocity of their tackling had the crowd wincing with Aled Brew's big hit being followed by a pile-driving effort from flanker Jamie Ringer on Watkins a couple of seconds later.They went off to a tremendous ovation as Sweeney extended their lead to 16-3 on the stroke of half-time with a wonderful long-range drop-goal that literally brought the house down.Turner's men, with its pack, Sweeney, rookie scrum-half Alex Walker and the Brew brothers at the forefront of an intense effort were good value.Scarlets were reeling and in desperate need of regrouping. Catalysts Dwayne Peel and Jones were being hunted down by a rampant Dragons pack and had no space or time to operate.Turner had identified Peel and Jones as key men and the plan he concocted to contain them had been carried out to perfection before the break.

The half-time pep talk from Phil Davies saw the Scarlets explode out of the blocks.Jones was heavily involved in the build-up that led to the league's top scorer Daniel increasing his tally to five.Then their searing pace saw them score from 80m following a turnover. Full-back Ceiron Thomas showed great pace to escape and King managed to get his pass away to scorer Gavin Evans as Craig Warlow clung on.Their next came after King beat off an attempted tackle by Gareth Wyatt in midfield. He had men to spare outside him and Thomas had a simple run-in. Jones, though, only managed to convert one of them.The shell-shocked Dragons trailed by four points after an amazing turn-around.Sweeney reduced the arrears to a point with a penalty, his third, in the 52nd minute but was wide with a not-too-difficult chance to put them back into the lead three minutes later.Dragons team manager Jim McCreedy was angered after Ringer sustained a nasty wound to his nose, being ordered to his technical box by the fourth official and claret was splashed on the forehead of Iestyn Thomas as the Scarlets prop became the third player off for repairs.Sweeney regained the lead for the Gwent region in the 65th minute after Charvis was taken out off the ball but Jones replied a minute later.Dragons surprisingly put a kickable penalty into the corner rather than go for goal, but the Scarlets cleared.

Tuesday Afternoon Update:

2006-09-12T05:52:00.000-07:00

As we've found over the last couple of games and indeed, last season, the odds normally end up changing slightly the nearer we get towards KO. Value is always to be had first thing in the morning.

You can now get 7/5 on the Dragons outright with ExtraBet.com

You can also get the Dragons with a +7 Handicap again @ Extrabet.com

Totesport.com are also offering a generous 8/11 Outright on the Scarlets which I think is a fantastic price, all things considered.

Check for yourself at: http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/o/card/rugbyunion-celticleagueandcup/odds/2799299x/sid/1012908

Newport Gwent Dragons v Llanelli Scarlets

2006-09-12T02:09:00.000-07:00

Dragons v Scarlets - Tuesday 12th September 2006 K.O 7.10 pm

Well - We are liking the look of Scarlets @ -1 on Sporting Odds 5/6.

Paul Turner doesn't seem to confident and we've got more academy lads playing for us again tonight - which does bode well for the future but thats a strong Scarlets team we've got to front up to.The Scarlets have also had an extra rest day and our match against Ulster was proper end to end stuff and as Paul Turner say's, it's a big ask to perform like that again.We've lost our last 4 games to the West and I can't see it being much different tonight.

Newport Gwent Dragons face their second home Magners League clash in three days when Llanelli Scarlets visit Rodney Parade on Tuesday, kick off 7.10pm.The Dragons have made three changes to the team that narrowly lost on Saturday to current champions Ulster for Tuesday's derby clash with academy member Ashley Smith coming in at inside centre with Ceri Sweeney replacing Mike Hercus at fly half. Hooker Steve Jones has recovered from his neck injury to make the starting XV while flanker Joe Bearman comes in at blindside flanker replacing the injured Nic Fitisemanu. Colin Charvis keeps the captain's armband and plays at No.8.Head Coach Paul Turner keeps his policy of bringing through the academy members with Alex Walker and Ashley Smith both starting. Academy member Lewis Evans is named on the replacements bench.(You mean Paul has no choice)Ashley Smith makes his first full competitive start for the region on Tuesday, he was a replacement in The Dragons Powergen Cup clash against Worcester last year and started for The Dragons in their pre season warm up game against the Cornish Pirates but had to leave the field 12 minutes into the game after suffering a bang to the head. "I am looking forward to making my first start for the team especially as it is a match against another Welsh region," commented Ashley. "I have experienced players around me in Nathan Brew and Ceri Sweeney so I will get lots of advice during the game which will make it easier. To have top quality players around me is fantastic but I will look to grasp the opportunity with both hands and aim to hang onto The Dragons jersey. The game against the Scarlets will be tough but I am relishing making my first start for The Dragons region. Hopefully we will have the same atmosphere as Saturday night and entertain the crowd and give the home support something to cheer about."USA International Paul Emerick is named for the first time on the replacements bench having recovered from a hamstring injury."The crowd were magnificent on Saturday," commented Head Coach Paul Turner. "I could hear them all round the ground. It's now up to us to repay them. There's a great match in store for supporters on Tuesday with the East v West derby game. They are always tremendous clashes on-field. It is a big ask to play another highly competitive game on Tuesday especially as Saturday's game was played at a furious pace and was real end-to-end stuff. But we owe the Scarlets one after they completed the double over us last year. They will bring a different challenge to that of Ulster, they have a typical Welsh all round game, are smart and organised up front, have two world class half backs and any number of flair back line players. It is a big ask for the squad but one game we are all up for."Looking ahead to Tuesday night's clash lock Ian Gough commented, "We are buoyed by our performance against reigning league champions Ulster but we have to win our home games if we are to make an impact in the Magners League. The game against the Scarlets is a tough game with international half backs Dwyane Peel and Stephen Jones a force to be reckoned with and it will take a massive effort from the whole team if we are to get a result. It is a quick turnaround for us from the Ulster game but with no Magners League game next weekend it is all or nothing for us. It will take a big effort from us to get a result but one we are all prepared to give with 10 days off after the game. Having home advantage for this match is a big plus and we have to make the most of that especially as it is a big Welsh derby clash. The support was good on Saturday night and the supporters were completely behind us and positive which gave us a big lift and we hope the crowd will again get behind us and make life difficult for the opposition

Dragons Team: Craig Warlow, Gareth Wyatt, Nathan Brew, Ashley Smith, Aled Brew, Ceri Sweeney, Alex Walker, Adam Black/David Maddocks, Steve Jones, Rhys Thomas, Ian Gough, Peter Sidoli, Joe Bearman, Jamie Ringer, Colin Charvis (c)ReplacementsBen Daly, Lee Harrison, Bryn Griffiths, Lewis Evans, Aled Thomas, Paul Emerick, Gareth Baber

Form: The Dragons' only win in their last four league games was 24-23 at Glasgow Warriors two rounds ago in their opening fixture this season. The Dragons are on an unprecedented run of three straight losses in all competitions at Rodney Parade. The Dragons have won just one of their last nine clashes against fellow Welsh Districts: 24-14 against the Ospreys at Newport on New Year's Day. Llanelli Scarlets recorded their first win of the new campaign with a 31-17 victory over Glasgow Warriors at Stradey Park last Friday. The Scarlets have not won away from home since the last time they visited Rodney Parade on 23 December 2005, on that occasion beating the Dragons 28-16. The Scarlets have won the last four matches in all competitions they have played against the Dragons

Recommendation: 10pts on Scarlets -1 on the Handicap @ SportingOdds.com

Betting On Ice - The Magners Celtic League

2006-09-12T01:57:00.000-07:00

Hello,

Me and some associates from world famous Planet Rugby.com forum have been selecting winning rugby union bets for the last couple of years. We've decided to publish them all for you to follow and to make some easy cash.

Our focus of exellence is the Magners Celtic League - We have inside and upto date information on almost all of the participating teams and are taking advantage of the book makers who do not pay regular attention to the teams. It has been most profitable so far.

The Planet Rugby Fourm can be found on: www.planetrugby.com